Time: 828 AM Fri July 1, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Cooler air remains in place over the region today with mid to upper 50's currently across most of the District. High temperatures today are expected to reach the upper 70's to low 80's this afternoon. Excess surface moisture is currently in place as dew points hover in the low 50's this morning before mixing out into the low to mid 40's this afternoon which should help limit the potential for any heavy rainfall, however, if dew points do not mix out, there will be a better chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall in the District, effectively keeping a low chance for message potential this afternoon. - Rain showers/isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the higher terrain by midday today with rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible in the District between 1-8pm. Storm motions will be west to east between 5-15mph with peak storm chances between 2-6pm this afternoon. One or two rounds of storms are possible today, with the first round bringing the best chance for moderate to heavy rainfall at this time. Additional rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm will continue until 8pm then generally dry conditions are expected after sunset and into Saturday morning. - Once again, multiple ingredients are in place for moderate to heavy rainfall today resulting in a low risk for Message issuance but relatively fast storm motions and cooler daytime temperatures could continue to help keep the moderate to heavy rainfall at bay. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's with mild conditions expected into daybreak Saturday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce TR-0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong, slower moving thunderstorms if able to develop will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Saturday with another good chance for afternoon and early evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with another low chance for messages likely. Sunday starts to get a bit warmer as upper-level moisture starts to taper off leading to a slight chance for afternoon and evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, with little to no chance for heavy rainfall at this time. The 4th of July looks to be fairly hot as high temperatures reach around 90°F with a continued slight chance for afternoon/early evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]