Time: 938 AM Wed July 20, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - Flow aloft will be westerly this morning, becoming northwesterly by the afternoon. Hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90's are expected again today, with dew points in the 40's to around 50 degrees. Forecast soundings indicate CAPE values will be around 500 J/kg today leading to scattered, moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms similar to yesterday. - Storms will begin developing over the foothills around noon and are expected to move east-southeast across the District at 15-20mph. Prime time for storms today is from 1pm to 8pm. Typical thunderstorm activity will produce minimal precipitation between a trace to 0.2" of rainfall, with a low chance for moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.2"-0.6" in 10-30 minutes from moderate to strong thunderstorms. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Thursday. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorms anchoring to the foothills or surface boundary will have the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.2" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot conditions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this week as a heat dome remains parked over the four-corners region. Similar conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high temperatures remain in the mid to upper 90's, possibly reaching 100 degrees in some areas, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to continue through the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]