Time: 1155 AM Thu July 7, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued and will be valid from 12:00-9:00 PM. - Temperatures are rapidly warming and thunderstorms are beginning to develop over W and NW areas of the District. The storms are developing along a moist/dry line with and the initial storms of the day will favor the N and W areas of the District. These storms or additional storms over northern CO is expected to send a rain cooled outflow boundary southward which will help to trigger new storms as the afternoon progresses over other areas of the District. - Typical storms will move slowly from W to E with stronger storms possibly moving erratically or more slowly along surface wind convergence. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds and possibly hail. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Storms anchored to the foothills or surface boundary could produce up to 2.0" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]