Time: 840 AM Mon August 8, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - After two days of isolated heavy rainfall, mid to upper-level moisture has decreased with strong westerly to northwesterly flow aloft leading to much drier conditions today and this evening. A slight chance for scattered rain showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, although most places will likely stay dry as storms favor areas south and east of the District. - A few storms will likely fire along the higher terrain around midday along the Continental and Palmer Divides. These storms have a slight chance of moving into the District this afternoon between 1-6pm with skies clearing through the rest of the evening. Excess surface moisture currently with dew points in the upper 50's to low 60's will unfortunately keep at least a low chance these scattered rain showers will produce moderate to brief heavy rainfall, with the highest threat being a quick 0.5" in 10 minutes as storms quickly pulse up and then rain themselves out. - As storms move eastward, skies will clear around sunset with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's by daybreak tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Outflow from thunderstorms outside the District pushes additional moisture into the area and provides a triggering mechanism for strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions finally start to completely dry out at the surface Tuesday leading to dry conditions throughout the day and evening. Warmer Wednesday with highs back into the 90's with continued dry conditions. Thursday will bring the next chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]