Time: 859 AM Sun June 19, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture continues to move into the region today leading to another chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall this afternoon and early evening. Currently temperatures already in the mid to upper 70's and will increase into the mid 80's to around 90°F this afternoon. Breezy winds out of the SSW will remain throughout the day with gusts between 25-35mph at times. - Scattered rain showers/thunderstorms likely this afternoon, best chance will be between 1-9pm with 1-3 rounds of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms expected into the early evening. Storm motions will be fairly brisk from the SSW to NNE between 15-25mph, helping limit point rainfall amounts, however, training of thunderstorms today could lead to an increase chance for longer lasting moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. Storm today will also produce gusty winds along with hail up to 1" in diameter resulting in a very low chance for storms to become severe this afternoon. - By sunset, rain shower activity and breezy conditions decrease as skies gradually clearing through the overnight and into Monday morning. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" 10-30 minutes. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.0" of rainfall in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions dry out Monday as high-pressure starts to build back over the region. This will lead to similar high temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90's across the District along with continued breezy conditions throughout the day. A cold front moves through Tuesday, effectively dropping high temperatures into the 80's with a slight chance for a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the Palmer Divide at this time. A better chance for rain showers for the District Wednesday, however the threat for heavy rainfall remains minimal at best. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]