Time: 115 PM Sun August 7, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 2's have been issued for the entire District effective from 1pm this afternoon valid until midnight tonight. - Storms are starting to initiate along the higher terrain at this time and will continue over the next couple of hours before storms move into the District from the west this afternoon between 2-3pm. A good chance for heavy rain showers/thunderstorms across the District this afternoon as dew points remain elevated in the mid to upper 50's. Storm motions will generally be from the W/SW to E/NE between 3-8mph with additional storms likely forming along outflow boundaries resulting in some slow moving and/or stationary storms this afternoon and early evening. The slow to stationary storms will bring the biggest threat for heavy rainfall, although with so much available moisture at the surface, most storms will be efficient rainfall producers throughout the day and into this evening. - Once again there will be a slight chance storms could become severe this afternoon with wind gusts up to 60mph with hail up to 1.5". Best chance for severe weather will be areas along and east of I-25 as storms strengthen onto the plains. One or two rounds of rain showers/thunderstorms will be possible with the first round likely having the best chance for heavy rainfall at this time. Storm intensities will decrease after sunset with more scattered rain showers likely through midnight. Skies will gradually clear overnight with lows dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's by daybreak Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 1.0-2.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong/slower moving or stationary thunderstorm may result in heavy rainfall rates of up to 3.5" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Douglas County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Adams County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Denver County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM DIA 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Arvada 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Lakewood 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (90%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (90%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (90%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]