Time: 840 AM Sat July 16, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - SW flow aloft will turn more W/NW today effectively keeping high temperatures in the low to mid 90's this afternoon. Fairly similar conditions to yesterday with a chance for afternoon and early evening scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. There will be a good chance showers stay minimal, however with elevated dew points currently in the upper 50's to around 60 degrees, a moderate chance for brief heavy rainfall will remain, with increased chances if low-level moisture does not mix out efficiently through the rest of the morning. - Initial storm development along the higher terrain will likely begin between 12 and 2pm with the best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the District between 2-8pm this evening. Typical thunderstorms today will produce light to brief moderate rain and gusty winds. Storm motions will move between 10-15mph from the WNW to ESE, however a gust front, or outflow boundary has the potential to produce storms that anchor in place for an extended period of time. Storms are expected to strengthen E of the I-25 corridor possibly becoming strong over the plains, although the better chances for strong storms today should remain east of the District boundaries. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Sunday. Overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 60's on the plains with low to mid 60's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms are able to develop, or training of moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The heat returns Sunday as high-pressure starts to build with highs flirting with 100 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Monday will stay hot, once again with highs reaching triple digits. A slight chance Monday afternoon for a round of high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, although precipitation should remain minimal at this time. Similar conditions Tuesday, although slightly cooler with highs in the 90's with another chance for afternoon high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]