Time: 847 AM Mon July 25, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Westerly flow aloft will gradually turn northwesterly throughout the day which should help usher in drier mid to upper-level air into the region throughout the day today. Currently, a shallow layer of moisture remains at the surface this morning with elevated dew points in the upper 50's to low 60's resulting in a few areas of patchy fog this morning. This low-level moisture should mix out through the rest of the morning dropping dew points into the low 40's, however, if dew points fail to mix out a chance will remain for brief moderate to heavy rainfall for any rain showers/isolated thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon and early evening. - The best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain along the Palmer Divide and southward today between 1-9pm. A very slight chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms to move northward and into the District between 2-8pm, mainly do to a gust front/outflow boundary from storms that develop to the south. If storms are able to develop, there will be a low chance for localized moderate to heavy rainfall favoring southern and eastern portions of the District at this time. This slight chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall due to excess surface moisture this morning will keep a LOW chance for Message 1 issuance this afternoon and evening. - High temperatures this afternoon will flirt with 90 degrees out at DIA, with low 80's along the foothills. Skies will gradually clear through the overnight with mild conditions expected through daybreak Tuesday as overnight lows drop to the low to mid 60's STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to brief rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, stationary thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Storm chances remain throughout the week with rain showers/isolated thunderstorm chances picking up tomorrow afternoon and early evening. There will be a decent chance these storms contain moderate to heavy rainfall tomorrow with a slight chance storms could become severe, favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. Afternoon/eve rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will continue Wednesday through Friday with at least a low to moderate chance for heavy rainfall each day this week. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]