Time: 928 AM Mon May 13, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warmer today with a chance for scattered afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms. Upper-level flow shifts northwesterly today leading to sunny and mild conditions this morning. Some residual surface moisture and decent daytime heating with highs reaching the low to mid 70s this afternoon will result in a chance for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two this afternoon and early evening. The best chance for any storm activity across the District will be between 2:00PM-7:00PM with a few lingering showers into the later evening. Storm motions today will be from the NW to SE between 10-20mph which will limit point rainfall amounts. Currently dew points are around 40 degrees and will likely decrease into the afternoon. Skies are expected to clear overnight and into Tuesday. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s on the plains with low to mid 40s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak thunderstorm will produce 0.10”-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer tomorrow as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s with continued W to NW flow aloft. Surface moisture increases slightly bringing a better overall chance for shower and thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. This uptick in moisture will likely result in a LOW chance of some brief heavy rain, mainly a quick 0.5” in 10-20min from stronger storm development. A few lingering showers into Wednesday with an active day continuing throughout the day with off and on showers during the morning, with precipitation chances picking up into the afternoon and evening. Temperatures during the day Wednesday will play a large roll in storm strength as high temperatures are only expected to reach the low 60s. This should effectively limit the potential for stronger thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]