Time: 925 AM Tue May 7, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon Similar conditions as yesterday with weaker westerly winds today, allowing some possible weak convection to move off the foothills and into The District. Highs today will be in low to mid 60s with dewpoints in the upper teens, possibly breaking into the low 20s in areas. A very slight chance for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon with minimal precipitation expected. The best chance for shower activity will be between 1:00 PM and 6:00 PM. Any weak convection moving off the foothills will be high base and most, if not all, precipitation will evaporate before hitting the ground. Storm motion will be westerly to west-southwesterly at 20-25 mph, with westerly to west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 0.20” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: More northerly winds tomorrow and lower dewpoints will keep the District dry, with some possible weak shallow convection with minimal precipitation during the overnight hours and into Thursday morning from very weak low-level upslope. Same thing Thursday night with another possible weak low-level upslope setting up, possibly creating weak shallow convection that will produce minimal precipitation. Friday and Saturday looks to be an average spring afternoons and evenings with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible both days. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]