Time: 902 AM Mon May 1, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SEASONABLE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS Today is the first day of the MHFD season and currently temperatures are in the mid 40’s under mostly sunny skies. Seasonable highs are expected this afternoon, reaching the low to mid 70’s with mild and dry conditions throughout most of the day. Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon along the foothills, bringing a slight chance for a few scattered rain showers along the higher terrain between 2-8pm, with a very slight chance for a rumble of thunder or two under a better developed cell. Any rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce minimal, if any, measurable precipitation, and should be limited to areas west of I-25 as any shower activity likely mixing out onto the plains. Skies will clear into the evening hours. Overnight lows will stay relatively warm, dropping into the mid to upper 40’s by daybreak Tuesday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.10” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain showers/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.10-0.20” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored rain shower/isolated thunderstorm, or training of rain showers, has the potential to produce 0.20-0.50” in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An active week weather wise to start the season, however the threat of heavy rainfall should remain minimal at this time. There will be a better chance for widespread rain showers starting tomorrow, with some thunderstorm activity likely for the District in the afternoon and early evening. Similar conditions remain in place Wednesday with a good chance for afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms. These chances remain Through the rest of the week with rain/thunderstorm chances both Thursday and Friday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]