Time: 943 AM Thu June 13, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot, with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. It’s going to be another sweltering hot and sunny day as the heat wave remains parked over the Four-Corners region. Above normal afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected broadly across the District, with some areas exceeding 100°F. Dewpoints will be in the mid 30s, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.60”. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms are possible as a weak upper-level disturbance moves across the High Plains. Dry and hot surface conditions will encourage light rainfall and gusty down bursts up to 60 mph beneath storms. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical storms will produce a trace to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing up to 0.50” in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The heat wave begins to recede tomorrow with the arrival of a cold front and cut-off upper level low. Temperatures will reach the mid 80s, dew points in the 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00”. These conditions support chances for scattered to widespread organized convection developing by the afternoon. A few storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall across the District. Storms will quickly move northeast, exiting the area by the early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]