Time: 746 PM Wed July 17, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 8pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. Storms just outside of the District have initially stabilized the region with any shower activity falling apart along the higher terrain, but a gust front is currently moving through the District. This gust front has initiated storms north of Denver but haven't produced any Message level rainfall. This gust front has a chance to produce additional storms within the Distrist over the next couple of hours. Overnight skies will gradually with lows dropping into the 60s. The combination of continued lack of upper-level support, warmer temperatures, and decreasing moisture, should significantly decrease the risk of any heavy rainfall amounts across the District tomorrow. There still will be slight chance of a couple isolated short-lived thunderstorms within the District during the afternoon to early evening, but these storms will likley not be able to produce Message level rainfall amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace-0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower will produce 0.10-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.20-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]