Time: 1136 AM Mon June 5, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 9:00pm this evening. A few isolated, but potent showers have already developed over the Aurora area at this time. These off and on showers and likely a few thunderstorms will continue to pulse up and down through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Currently low to mid 50 dew points will result in even weak showers to produce moderate to heavy rainfall. Combined with already saturated soils will result in easy LOW IMPACT FLOODING with pooling water and rising creeks/stream likely into the evening. Storm motions will also play a large role today as very weak steering winds aloft result in stationary storms, with pulse like behavior. Additional storms will likely form along outflow boundaries through the afternoon, also increasing chances for isolated heavy rainfall. Models indicate the best rainfall along the foothills, where storms are most likely to anchor in place; however, current conditions indicate equal chance across the District for heavy rainfall into the afternoon and evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce 0.1-0.5” in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving strong thunderstorm or nearly stationary thunderstorm may result in up to 2.2” of rain in 60 minutes or less. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM MON 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]