Time: 927 AM Sat June 1, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warmer, sunny to start the day with another chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. A minimal overall change to the upper-level dynamics today, combined with low to mid 40 dew points at the surface this morning will bring another chance for afternoon and early evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. There will be a very slight chance some of these storms will become severe, mainly for gusty winds and hail up to 1.0”, likely for areas east of the District at this time. Storms will initiate along the higher terrain foothills and Palmer Divide in the early afternoon with the best chance for storms withing the District between 2-7pm today. Storm motions will be from west to east between 10-15mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts, however, some erratic storm motions will be possible if stronger storms develop due to outflow boundaries. These erratic storms will have the highest potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall with the largest threat today being a quick 0.5” in 10-15min rather than any long-lasting rainfall. A very slight chance for a few lingering showers into the later evening, although the threat of heavy rainfall should diminish after sunset. Overnight will be clear to partly cloudy out as temperatures dip into the low to mid 50s for the plains by daybreak tomorrow, with upper 40s to around 50 for the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a T-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25”-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or a stationary storm will have the potential to produce up to 0.8” total in under 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly drier air overall tomorrow will decrease the chance for showers and thunderstorm threat, however, an abundance of left over moisture at the surface from any rainfall today will likely result in at least another LOW chance for Messages to be issued. Temperatures tomorrow will increase into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees for the first time this year! Conditions are likely to dry out completely Monday as high temperatures remain around 90 degrees. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]