Time: 900 AM Fri May 7, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WITH ISOLATED HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS - Temperatures will warm to well above normal over the District today with highs topping out in the 80's over the plains with 70's in the foothills. Mostly sunny skies this morning will give way to a build up of clouds this afternoon and the threat for a few isolated high-based showers or weak thunderstorms. - The showers and weak thunderstorms that manage to develop today will produce little if any precipitation. The main culprit will be gusty winds of 40-50mph near high-based storms due to evaporation of precipitation from cloud base to the surface. Any precipitation is likely just a few sprinkles but a stronger storm could potentially get the ground wet. - Most areas will trend dry and any shower activity will diminish around sunset with dry conditions persisting overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. A LOOK AHEAD: A cold front will move through on Saturday during the morning with highs in the 60's to lower 70's. Behind the front there will be more moisture to work with and measurable rain is expected from the storms. Some storms may become strong/severe with hail being the primary threat and brief heavy rain possible. A round or two of thunderstorms looks likely into the evening with additional rain showers possible overnight. Dry Sunday morning with another cold front moving through during the afternoon producing rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Another long duration rain/snow event then looks to set up later Sunday night through the day on Monday and into Tuesday before drying out by Wednesday morning. 1-2" of moisture is possible Sunday night into Tuesday night with the snow line potentially lowering to 5k or below Monday night into Tuesday morning. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]