April 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1212 PM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe/Aurora, Denver/DIA, and Douglas Counties and are valid until 8pm this evening. - Thunderstorms have developed E of I-25 over the District as an upper level low pressure system emerges onto the plains. Thunderstorm activity will continue possible through the afternoon becoming less likely after 5 or 6pm as temperatures cool and precipitation becomes more stratiform in nature versus convective currently. - The stronger thunderstorm activity is expected to remain confined to areas generally along and E of I-25 as there is better surface convergence with weaker storms westward towards the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak/moderate and briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.4-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may produce up to 1.4" in 45-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1212 PM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe/Aurora, Denver/DIA, and Douglas Counties and are valid until 8pm this evening. - Thunderstorms have developed E of I-25 over the District as an upper level low pressure system emerges onto the plains. Thunderstorm activity will continue possible through the afternoon becoming less likely after 5 or 6pm as temperatures cool and precipitation becomes more stratiform in nature versus convective currently. - The stronger thunderstorm activity is expected to remain confined to areas generally along and E of I-25 as there is better surface convergence with weaker storms westward towards the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak/moderate and briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.4-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may produce up to 1.4" in 45-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1212 PM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe/Aurora, Denver/DIA, and Douglas Counties and are valid until 8pm this evening. - Thunderstorms have developed E of I-25 over the District as an upper level low pressure system emerges onto the plains. Thunderstorm activity will continue possible through the afternoon becoming less likely after 5 or 6pm as temperatures cool and precipitation becomes more stratiform in nature versus convective currently. - The stronger thunderstorm activity is expected to remain confined to areas generally along and E of I-25 as there is better surface convergence with weaker storms westward towards the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak/moderate and briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.4-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may produce up to 1.4" in 45-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1212 PM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe/Aurora, Denver/DIA, and Douglas Counties and are valid until 8pm this evening. - Thunderstorms have developed E of I-25 over the District as an upper level low pressure system emerges onto the plains. Thunderstorm activity will continue possible through the afternoon becoming less likely after 5 or 6pm as temperatures cool and precipitation becomes more stratiform in nature versus convective currently. - The stronger thunderstorm activity is expected to remain confined to areas generally along and E of I-25 as there is better surface convergence with weaker storms westward towards the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak/moderate and briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.4-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may produce up to 1.4" in 45-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1212 PM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe/Aurora, Denver/DIA, and Douglas Counties and are valid until 8pm this evening. - Thunderstorms have developed E of I-25 over the District as an upper level low pressure system emerges onto the plains. Thunderstorm activity will continue possible through the afternoon becoming less likely after 5 or 6pm as temperatures cool and precipitation becomes more stratiform in nature versus convective currently. - The stronger thunderstorm activity is expected to remain confined to areas generally along and E of I-25 as there is better surface convergence with weaker storms westward towards the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak/moderate and briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.4-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may produce up to 1.4" in 45-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 600 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1052 AM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A SOAKING RAIN THIS EVENING AND LIKELY SOME WET SNOW OVERNIGHT - A potent spring storm system is taking aim at the District today and tonight producing the first widespread thunderstorm activity of the season this afternoon. After the initial wave or two of showers and thunderstorms precipitation will transition to a steady "wetting" rain this evening and continue overnight with the snow level dropping to somewhere between 5,000-6,000ft by tomorrow morning. - Thunderstorms this afternoon between noon and 4pm may become strong to severe but with low freezing levels the stronger storms will be large hail or accumulating hail producers versus heavy rainfall producers. Weaker storms will be capable of moderate rainfall and small hail. Between 4-8pm the transition from convective storms to a more stratiform rain event is expected to unfold with a steady rain into Wednesday morning and the snow line lowering. - The snow line is expected to start out at or above 9,000' and lower to around 6,000' by around midnight with potentially a brief period of "wet" snow down to around 5,000' for the I-25 corridor after midnight into daybreak Wednesday. Just a degree or two will make the difference for rain or snow below 6,000'. Smaller creeks and streams will be filling with runoff as the event wears on. Cherry Creek through Denver may be most prone to running high or reaching bike path levels. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.3-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Any snow below 5,500' tomorrow morning will change back to rain as the snowline rises through the day. Precipitation likely remains snow at or above the 7-8,000' line. Widespread and persistent rain/snow showers tomorrow morning will begin to break up by noon slowly becoming dry through the afternoon. Additional precipitation on Wednesday will be light and with cooler temperatures in place no heavy rainfall is expected. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1052 AM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A SOAKING RAIN THIS EVENING AND LIKELY SOME WET SNOW OVERNIGHT - A potent spring storm system is taking aim at the District today and tonight producing the first widespread thunderstorm activity of the season this afternoon. After the initial wave or two of showers and thunderstorms precipitation will transition to a steady "wetting" rain this evening and continue overnight with the snow level dropping to somewhere between 5,000-6,000ft by tomorrow morning. - Thunderstorms this afternoon between noon and 4pm may become strong to severe but with low freezing levels the stronger storms will be large hail or accumulating hail producers versus heavy rainfall producers. Weaker storms will be capable of moderate rainfall and small hail. Between 4-8pm the transition from convective storms to a more stratiform rain event is expected to unfold with a steady rain into Wednesday morning and the snow line lowering. - The snow line is expected to start out at or above 9,000' and lower to around 6,000' by around midnight with potentially a brief period of "wet" snow down to around 5,000' for the I-25 corridor after midnight into daybreak Wednesday. Just a degree or two will make the difference for rain or snow below 6,000'. Smaller creeks and streams will be filling with runoff as the event wears on. Cherry Creek through Denver may be most prone to running high or reaching bike path levels. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.3-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Any snow below 5,500' tomorrow morning will change back to rain as the snowline rises through the day. Precipitation likely remains snow at or above the 7-8,000' line. Widespread and persistent rain/snow showers tomorrow morning will begin to break up by noon slowly becoming dry through the afternoon. Additional precipitation on Wednesday will be light and with cooler temperatures in place no heavy rainfall is expected. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1052 AM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A SOAKING RAIN THIS EVENING AND LIKELY SOME WET SNOW OVERNIGHT - A potent spring storm system is taking aim at the District today and tonight producing the first widespread thunderstorm activity of the season this afternoon. After the initial wave or two of showers and thunderstorms precipitation will transition to a steady "wetting" rain this evening and continue overnight with the snow level dropping to somewhere between 5,000-6,000ft by tomorrow morning. - Thunderstorms this afternoon between noon and 4pm may become strong to severe but with low freezing levels the stronger storms will be large hail or accumulating hail producers versus heavy rainfall producers. Weaker storms will be capable of moderate rainfall and small hail. Between 4-8pm the transition from convective storms to a more stratiform rain event is expected to unfold with a steady rain into Wednesday morning and the snow line lowering. - The snow line is expected to start out at or above 9,000' and lower to around 6,000' by around midnight with potentially a brief period of "wet" snow down to around 5,000' for the I-25 corridor after midnight into daybreak Wednesday. Just a degree or two will make the difference for rain or snow below 6,000'. Smaller creeks and streams will be filling with runoff as the event wears on. Cherry Creek through Denver may be most prone to running high or reaching bike path levels. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.3-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Any snow below 5,500' tomorrow morning will change back to rain as the snowline rises through the day. Precipitation likely remains snow at or above the 7-8,000' line. Widespread and persistent rain/snow showers tomorrow morning will begin to break up by noon slowly becoming dry through the afternoon. Additional precipitation on Wednesday will be light and with cooler temperatures in place no heavy rainfall is expected. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1052 AM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A SOAKING RAIN THIS EVENING AND LIKELY SOME WET SNOW OVERNIGHT - A potent spring storm system is taking aim at the District today and tonight producing the first widespread thunderstorm activity of the season this afternoon. After the initial wave or two of showers and thunderstorms precipitation will transition to a steady "wetting" rain this evening and continue overnight with the snow level dropping to somewhere between 5,000-6,000ft by tomorrow morning. - Thunderstorms this afternoon between noon and 4pm may become strong to severe but with low freezing levels the stronger storms will be large hail or accumulating hail producers versus heavy rainfall producers. Weaker storms will be capable of moderate rainfall and small hail. Between 4-8pm the transition from convective storms to a more stratiform rain event is expected to unfold with a steady rain into Wednesday morning and the snow line lowering. - The snow line is expected to start out at or above 9,000' and lower to around 6,000' by around midnight with potentially a brief period of "wet" snow down to around 5,000' for the I-25 corridor after midnight into daybreak Wednesday. Just a degree or two will make the difference for rain or snow below 6,000'. Smaller creeks and streams will be filling with runoff as the event wears on. Cherry Creek through Denver may be most prone to running high or reaching bike path levels. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.3-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Any snow below 5,500' tomorrow morning will change back to rain as the snowline rises through the day. Precipitation likely remains snow at or above the 7-8,000' line. Widespread and persistent rain/snow showers tomorrow morning will begin to break up by noon slowly becoming dry through the afternoon. Additional precipitation on Wednesday will be light and with cooler temperatures in place no heavy rainfall is expected. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1052 AM Tue April 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A SOAKING RAIN THIS EVENING AND LIKELY SOME WET SNOW OVERNIGHT - A potent spring storm system is taking aim at the District today and tonight producing the first widespread thunderstorm activity of the season this afternoon. After the initial wave or two of showers and thunderstorms precipitation will transition to a steady "wetting" rain this evening and continue overnight with the snow level dropping to somewhere between 5,000-6,000ft by tomorrow morning. - Thunderstorms this afternoon between noon and 4pm may become strong to severe but with low freezing levels the stronger storms will be large hail or accumulating hail producers versus heavy rainfall producers. Weaker storms will be capable of moderate rainfall and small hail. Between 4-8pm the transition from convective storms to a more stratiform rain event is expected to unfold with a steady rain into Wednesday morning and the snow line lowering. - The snow line is expected to start out at or above 9,000' and lower to around 6,000' by around midnight with potentially a brief period of "wet" snow down to around 5,000' for the I-25 corridor after midnight into daybreak Wednesday. Just a degree or two will make the difference for rain or snow below 6,000'. Smaller creeks and streams will be filling with runoff as the event wears on. Cherry Creek through Denver may be most prone to running high or reaching bike path levels. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Strong thunderstorms are expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.3-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Any snow below 5,500' tomorrow morning will change back to rain as the snowline rises through the day. Precipitation likely remains snow at or above the 7-8,000' line. Widespread and persistent rain/snow showers tomorrow morning will begin to break up by noon slowly becoming dry through the afternoon. Additional precipitation on Wednesday will be light and with cooler temperatures in place no heavy rainfall is expected. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 8 months

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