Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1052 AM Tue April 27, 2021
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A SOAKING RAIN THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY SOME WET SNOW OVERNIGHT
-
A potent spring storm system is taking aim at the District today and
tonight producing the first widespread thunderstorm activity of the
season this afternoon. After the initial wave or two of showers and
thunderstorms precipitation will transition to a steady "wetting" rain
this evening and continue overnight with the snow level dropping to
somewhere between 5,000-6,000ft by tomorrow morning.
-
Thunderstorms this afternoon between noon and 4pm may become strong
to severe but with low freezing levels the stronger storms will be
large hail or accumulating hail producers versus heavy rainfall
producers. Weaker storms will be capable of moderate rainfall and
small hail. Between 4-8pm the transition from convective storms to a
more stratiform rain event is expected to unfold with a steady rain
into Wednesday morning and the snow line lowering.
-
The snow line is expected to start out at or above 9,000' and lower
to around 6,000' by around midnight with potentially a brief period of
"wet" snow down to around 5,000' for the I-25 corridor after midnight
into daybreak Wednesday. Just a degree or two will make the difference
for rain or snow below 6,000'. Smaller creeks and streams will be
filling with runoff as the event wears on. Cherry Creek through Denver
may be most prone to running high or reaching bike path levels.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Strong thunderstorms are
expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Weak to moderate
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in
10-30 minutes. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.3-1.2" in
45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Any snow below 5,500' tomorrow morning will change back
to rain as the snowline rises through the day. Precipitation likely
remains snow at or above the 7-8,000' line. Widespread and persistent
rain/snow showers tomorrow morning will begin to break up by noon
slowly becoming dry through the afternoon. Additional precipitation on
Wednesday will be light and with cooler temperatures in place no heavy
rainfall is expected.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
60-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Denver
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1052 AM Tue April 27, 2021
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A SOAKING RAIN THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY SOME WET SNOW OVERNIGHT
-
A potent spring storm system is taking aim at the District today and
tonight producing the first widespread thunderstorm activity of the
season this afternoon. After the initial wave or two of showers and
thunderstorms precipitation will transition to a steady "wetting" rain
this evening and continue overnight with the snow level dropping to
somewhere between 5,000-6,000ft by tomorrow morning.
-
Thunderstorms this afternoon between noon and 4pm may become strong
to severe but with low freezing levels the stronger storms will be
large hail or accumulating hail producers versus heavy rainfall
producers. Weaker storms will be capable of moderate rainfall and
small hail. Between 4-8pm the transition from convective storms to a
more stratiform rain event is expected to unfold with a steady rain
into Wednesday morning and the snow line lowering.
-
The snow line is expected to start out at or above 9,000' and lower
to around 6,000' by around midnight with potentially a brief period of
"wet" snow down to around 5,000' for the I-25 corridor after midnight
into daybreak Wednesday. Just a degree or two will make the difference
for rain or snow below 6,000'. Smaller creeks and streams will be
filling with runoff as the event wears on. Cherry Creek through Denver
may be most prone to running high or reaching bike path levels.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Strong thunderstorms are
expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Weak to moderate
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in
10-30 minutes. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.3-1.2" in
45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Any snow below 5,500' tomorrow morning will change back
to rain as the snowline rises through the day. Precipitation likely
remains snow at or above the 7-8,000' line. Widespread and persistent
rain/snow showers tomorrow morning will begin to break up by noon
slowly becoming dry through the afternoon. Additional precipitation on
Wednesday will be light and with cooler temperatures in place no heavy
rainfall is expected.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
60-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Denver
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1052 AM Tue April 27, 2021
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A SOAKING RAIN THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY SOME WET SNOW OVERNIGHT
-
A potent spring storm system is taking aim at the District today and
tonight producing the first widespread thunderstorm activity of the
season this afternoon. After the initial wave or two of showers and
thunderstorms precipitation will transition to a steady "wetting" rain
this evening and continue overnight with the snow level dropping to
somewhere between 5,000-6,000ft by tomorrow morning.
-
Thunderstorms this afternoon between noon and 4pm may become strong
to severe but with low freezing levels the stronger storms will be
large hail or accumulating hail producers versus heavy rainfall
producers. Weaker storms will be capable of moderate rainfall and
small hail. Between 4-8pm the transition from convective storms to a
more stratiform rain event is expected to unfold with a steady rain
into Wednesday morning and the snow line lowering.
-
The snow line is expected to start out at or above 9,000' and lower
to around 6,000' by around midnight with potentially a brief period of
"wet" snow down to around 5,000' for the I-25 corridor after midnight
into daybreak Wednesday. Just a degree or two will make the difference
for rain or snow below 6,000'. Smaller creeks and streams will be
filling with runoff as the event wears on. Cherry Creek through Denver
may be most prone to running high or reaching bike path levels.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Strong thunderstorms are
expected to produce more hail than rainfall. Weak to moderate
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" of rain in
10-30 minutes. Steady moderate to heavy rain may produce 0.3-1.2" in
45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Any snow below 5,500' tomorrow morning will change back
to rain as the snowline rises through the day. Precipitation likely
remains snow at or above the 7-8,000' line. Widespread and persistent
rain/snow showers tomorrow morning will begin to break up by noon
slowly becoming dry through the afternoon. Additional precipitation on
Wednesday will be light and with cooler temperatures in place no heavy
rainfall is expected.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
60-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Denver
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 AM WED
0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.0" (20%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months