September 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

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Time: 756 AM Mon September 20, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING - A cold front moved through the region overnight effectively dropping our high temperatures into a more seasonable mid 60's to low 70's on the plains with low to mid 60's along the foothills. - Mostly sunny skies to start the day with clouds gradually increasing throughout the day. A chance this afternoon for scattered rain showers with a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm if temperatures are able to warm enough. Best chance for thunderstorm activity will be from 3-7pm with rain shower chances possible into the overnight hours. Any shower activity should remain minimal this afternoon and evening, however a stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. - Skies will gradually clear into Tuesday morning with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 40's for the plains with low to mid 30's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.10" in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm or training of rain showers/thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday will remain cooler with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60's along with mild and dry conditions. High-pressure returns Wednesday bringing high temperatures back into the 70's with continued dry conditions. Similar conditions both Thursday and Friday as high temperatures reach the low 80's. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 812 AM Sun September 19, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT, SUNNY AND DRY - Unseasonably warm temperatures today with highs reaching the mid 80's to around 90 this afternoon with upper 70's to low 80's along the foothills. - Winds will start to pick up late this evening as they shift from the north as a cold front moves in through the overnight. - Overnight will be breezy and cool with lows dropping into the upper 40's for the plains with low 40's for the foothills. Precipitation chances will also increase behind the cold front with a few isolated rain showers possible in the early morning hours Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical overnight rain showers will produce a trace-0.10" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower could produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger rain shower or training or rain showers has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: As the disturbance moves through the region Monday, off and on rain showers will be possible during the day and potentially an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon, with the threat for heavy rainfall being minimal at best. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with highs only reaching the upper 60's to low 70's. Cooler high temperatures remain Tuesday with dry conditions throughout the day. High-pressure returns Wednesday leading to warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1100 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 950 AM Sat September 18, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS - Another unseasonably hot day today as high temperatures reach the mid 80's to low 90's on the plains with mid to upper 80's along the foothills. - Mostly sunny skies with clouds increasing into the evening. A few mountain rain showers/isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with a very slight chance for scattered rain showers late this evening and through the overnight and into Sunday morning. Most areas are expected to stay dry, however a few sprinkles to light rain showers cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Best chance for any sprinkles to light rain will be from 9pm until daybreak Sunday. - Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 50's along the plains with low to mid 40's along the foothills. A few areas of fog may be possible in the early morning hours Sunday before conditions quickly warm with highs in the 80's to around 90 once again. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a TR-0.10" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain showers could produce 0.1-0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm or brief moderate to heavy rain shower has the potential to produce 0.2-0.5" in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Sunday will be hot, mild and dry with temperatures reaching the 80's to around 90. A cold front moves in Monday effectively dropping high temperatures to around 70 degrees. This cold front will also bring a decent chance for rain showers across the district, however the threat for heavy rain will be minimal at best. Temperatures remain in the 70's Tuesday with dry conditions expected throughout the day. Wednesday begins to warm as high temperatures return to the 80's with mostly sunny skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 900 PM TO 600 AM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 1027 AM Fri September 17, 2021 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOL AND OVERCAST MORNING WILL BECOME WARM AND SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON - A dip in the upper-level jet passed over northern Colorado early this morning, dragging a cool front across the plains. This front has positioned a cool air mass over eastern Colorado, raising dew points into the 30's across the District. Although there is a bit more moisture than yesterday, no precipitation is expected today. - Overcast across The District this morning will become clear this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the mid 70's. - Tonight will be clear and dry with temperatures around 50 degrees. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Ridging over the Desert Southwest will continue this weekend, bringing warm and dry conditions to the plains once again. Tomorrow is expected to be sunny and dry, with high's reaching the mid to upper 80's. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday, with clear and sunny skies, and temperatures in the mid 80's. A new system is approaching Colorado from the Pacific Northwest and is expected to reach the central Rockies by Monday. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the path of this wave, long range models are beginning to agree on a more seasonable cool down across the Colorado Springs area early next week. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 1017 AM Thu September 16, 2021 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT - Today will be hot, very dry, and sunny with gusty conditions across The District. Upper level ridging and lack of moisture will inhibit convection in the area today and tonight. - Clear skies and 700mb thermal ridging along the plains will produce high temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90's across The District. Dew points will drop into the 20's this afternoon, resulting in relative humidities in the teens. A fire weather watch has been issued for northeast Colorado. - Winds are expected to increase ahead of tonight's cool front with wind gusts reaching 20 mph. Cloud cover will also increase ahead of the frontal passage, but no precipitation is expected in The District overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: A dip in the upper level jet will pass over northern Colorado overnight, dragging a weak cool front across the plains. This front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area, lowering Friday's high temperature to the mid 70's. While no precipitation across the District is expected at this time, a small moisture increase on Friday will reduce fire weather conditions across the state. Ridging over the Desert Southwest will continue this weekend, bringing warm and dry conditions to the plains once again. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 925 AM Wed September 15, 2021 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, DRY, AND CALM CONDITIONS TODAY - Today will be dry and warm with sunny skies as broad scale subsidence moves into the Colorado territory. Very dry conditions with dewpoints around 30Â°F are expected across The District as well. These conditions will obstruct development of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. - A warming trend across the state begins as a high-pressure system builds over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80âs to low 90âs across The District today. - Skies will remain mostly clear through this evening and overnight. Dew points will increase slightly after dark to around 35Â°F, but synoptic scale subsidence will once again inhibit development of showers in the area. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow looks similar, with temperatures once again reaching the upper 80âs to low 90âs under clear skies and gusty winds. Downslope winds and extremely dry conditions are expected to increase the fire weather risk across parts of north and central Colorado on Thursday. A dip in the upper-level jet will pass over northern Colorado early on Friday, dragging a weak cool front across the plains. This front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area, lowering Fridayâs high temperature to the mid 80âs. While no precipitation across The District is expected at this time, a small moisture increase on Friday will reduce fire weather conditions across the state. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 847 AM Tue September 14, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING AREAS SOUTH - The tail end of a disturbance is moving through the District this morning and may produce an isolated rain shower or sprinkles over the next couple hours. No meaningful precipitation is expected from the isolated morning showers. This afternoon another disturbance will move into the District and result in a chance for thunderstorms, favoring areas S and E with lesser chances N and W. - Although not all areas of the District will experience a storm today the storms that do manage to develop have the potential to become moderate to briefly strong. Relatively fast storm motions from WNW to ESE at 20-30mph will keep any heavy rainfall brief. Stronger storms may also contain gusty winds and hail. Best chances for thunderstorms today will be S of I-70 and in particular over Douglas County between noon and 6pm. Beyond 6pm conditions are expected to be drying out from W to E. - Temperatures today will be seasonal in the upper 70's to lower 80's for highs over the plains with readings about 10 degrees cooler in the foothills around 8,000ft. Normal high for Denver today is 81 degrees. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training of strong thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.5" of heavy rain in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A stretch of dry weather will develop over the District on Wednesday and continue through the end of the week. Temperatures will be running above seasonal averages in the upper 80's to lower 90's over the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (65%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 907 AM Mon September 13, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER/BREEZY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS - A cold front is currently moving through the District from N to S at this time and should shave a couple degrees off of high temperatures today with readings in the upper 70's and lower 80's over the plains. An isolated rain shower may develop later this morning over the higher terrain with the plains remaining generally dry until this afternoon. - Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will increase over the plains between 1-3pm. Chances for shower and thunderstorm activity will then persist well into the evening but the storm coverage will be spotty and not everyone will experience a shower or thunderstorm today. Best chances look to be N areas of the District and in particular over Boulder County. Surface moisture is only modest behind the front leading to thunderstorms that develop generally being weak to briefly moderate in intensity. - Upper level steering winds from W to E at 15-25mph will keep the showers and thunderstorms moving along keeping precipitation durations brief and overall rainfall amounts on the light side. After 10pm the best chances for shower activity will be pushing S and E but a stray rain shower cannot be ruled out during the overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving briefly strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler Tuesday as another disturbance moves through with highs in the 70's over the plains with a good chance for widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the day. Best chances for more persistent showers/thunderstorms appear to be over the southern half of the District and in particular over Douglas County. Depending upon available surface moisture some storms Tuesday may contain moderate to brief heavy rainfall. A stretch of dry weather is then expected Wednesday through Friday with plenty of sunshine and temperatures running above normal for this time of year. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 902 AM Sun September 12, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - After record heat yesterday, temperatures will be more seasonal today in the low to mid 80's for highs over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 82 degrees. There is a very slight chance for a rain shower this morning, favoring northern areas of the District but most of the activity will hold off until this afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance passes through. - Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will become possible over the foothills before noon and over the plains between noon-1pm. Best chances for shower and weak to briefly moderate thunderstorm activity will be between 1-7pm. After 7 or 8pm generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - Showers and thunderstorms that develop today will be fast moving from SW to NE between 20-30mph. There is more moisture to work with than yesterday resulting in some storms potentially producing a brief period of moderate rainfall. Any heavy rainfall today is expected to remain well east of the District where moisture is deeper. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rain rates of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, slower moving thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.0" in 15-45 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A weak cool front is expected to move through tomorrow morning and shave 1-3 degrees off of highs from today's readings. There will continue to be a modest chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms but the timing will be pushed back with best chances between 3pm and midnight. A more robust upper level disturbance will move through on Tuesday and keep temperatures in the 70's for highs and result in a good chance for a much needed wetting rainfall over the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (85%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (85%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (85%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1100 AM TO 700 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) NONE Douglas 1100 AM TO 700 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) NONE Jefferson 1100 AM TO 700 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 949 AM Sat September 11, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- RECORD BREAKING HEAT OVER THE PLAINS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE - Another hot day with at or above record breaking temperatures with afternoon highs expected to reach the low to mid 90's. Current record at DIA is 93 degrees which was set in 2018. - A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and through the evening hours ahead of tonightâs cool front. Very little available moisture will limit precipitation today, with any high-based isolated rain showers or thunderstorms expected to mainly produce gusty winds. - Overnight will be mild with lows dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's for the plains with upper 40's to low 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical isolated rain showers/thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.10" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate thunderstorm potential to produce 0.1-0.2" in 10- 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of rain showers has the potential to produce 0.2-0.5" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A welcomed cool front will sweep across the state tonight, offering some relief from the exceptional heat. On Sunday, high temperatures are expected to reach the mid 80âs with another round of afternoon to evening isolated showers and thunderstorms. The cool front will also displace lingering wildfire smoke through the weekend, but smoke conditions are expected to worsen once again early next week as upper-level flow across the intermountain west becomes more zonal. On Monday, temperatures will warm into the upper 80âs to low 90âs with afternoon to evening thunderstorms ahead of another cool front Monday night. Tuesday is expected to be stormy with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Front Range Urban Corridor, and temperatures reaching the mid 70âs. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims September 2021