September 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 925 AM Fri September 10, 2021 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- RECORD BREAKING HEAT OVER THE PLAINS WITH CALM AND HAZY CONDITIONS - A heat wave continues meandering into Colorado from the four-corners region today, suppressing convection with broad subsidence and single digit relative humidity values across The District. - Today will be hot, dry, and smokey across The District as plumes of west coast wildfire smoke continue to inundate Colorado. Expect temperatures to climb into the upper 90's possibly reaching 100Â°F this afternoon, with calm and hazy conditions aloft. - Dry and hazy conditions continue this evening and overnight with temperatures bottoming out around the mid 60's. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: The heat wave should begin to recede early Saturday, followed by an increase in moisture and cloud cover ahead of a cool front expected to sweep across the state Saturday evening. Temperatures will still be relatively warm on Saturday, reaching the low 90âs with a chance of isolated late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The weak cool front is also expected to displace lingering wildfire smoke through the weekend. The cooling trend will continue on Sunday, with high temperatures reaching the mid 80âs with another round of afternoon to evening isolated showers and thunderstorms. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 904 AM Thu September 9, 2021 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- NEAR RECORD HEAT OVER THE PLAINS WITH CALM AND HAZY CONDITIONS - A heat wave begins meandering into Colorado from the four-corners region today, suppressing convection with broad subsidence and very low relative humidity. - Today will be hot, dry, and smokey across The District as plumes of west coast wildfire smoke continue to inundate Colorado. Expect temperatures to climb into the mid-90s this afternoon, with calm and hazy conditions aloft. - Dry and hazy conditions continue this evening and overnight with temperatures dipping into the upper 50's. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Friday will be another hot and dry day with temperatures expected to reach the mid to high 90âs, shattering the daily record of 93Â°F set in 2018. Ridging over the intercontinental mountain west region will continue to transport West Coast wildfire smoke into Colorado through the overnight hours on Friday. Early on Saturday, a weak cool front is expected to clear most of the smoke east of the Continental Divide. The heat wave should begin to recede on Saturday, followed by an increase in moisture and partly cloudy skies across The District. Temperatures will still be relatively warm Saturday afternoon, reaching the upper 80âs to low 90âs with a chance of isolated late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 747 AM Wed September 8, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT, HAZY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE - High-pressure continues to dominate over the region leading to another hazy and dry day today. - High temperatures will reach the upper 80's to around 90 degrees on the plains with low to mid 80's along the foothills this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. - Overnight will be mild as temperatures drop into the mid 50's to around 60 on the plains with upper 40's to low 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Once again, not much change in the overall pattern through this week with dry conditions and at or above record breaking heat expected through the rest of the week. Low to mid 90's Thursday will flirt with the record high of 94 degrees set in 1994 at DIA. Similar conditions Friday with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 90's with a good chance for record breaking heat (93 degrees at DIA in 2018). Slightly cooler heading into the weekend as highs reach the upper 80's to around 90 on Saturday. A very slight chance for widely scattered afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, however, most areas will likely remain dry. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 733 AM Tue September 7, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, HAZY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE - Another warm and hazy day today as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 80's on the plains with upper 70's to low 80's along the foothills. - Hazy and dry conditions today and this evening as high-pressure continues to dominate over the region. - Overnight will be mild as lows dip into the mid to upper 50's on the plains with upper 40's to low 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Again, not much change in the overall pattern through this week with dry conditions and at or above record breaking heat expected through the rest of the week. Wednesday's high temperatures reach the low 90's, which will likely flirt with breaking the record high of 94 degrees set in 1959. low to Mid 90's Thursday will most likely beat the record high of 94 degrees set in 1994 at DIA. Similar conditions Friday with highs expected to stay in the mid to upper 90's with another good chance for record breaking heat (93 degrees at DIA in 2018). MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 824 AM Mon September 6, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT, HAZY AND DRY DAY TODAY - Not much change in the overall pattern today resulting in continued hot, hazy and dry conditions throughout the day. - Smoke from the W and NW will be on the increase today leading to continued hazy conditions this afternoon and into this evening. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90's for the plains with mid to upper 80's along the foothills. - Overnight will be mild and clear with lows dipping into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with upper 40's to low 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Much of the same through the rest of the week with dry conditions and record breaking heat into the later part of the week. Slightly cooler tomorrow as a weak cold front moves through overnight effectively dropping highs into the upper 80's to low 90's with continued dry conditions. Slightly warmer Wednesday as high temperatures reach the low 90's, which will likely flirt with breaking the record high of 94 degrees set in 1959. Mid 90's Thursday will most likely beat the record high of 94 degrees set in 1994 at DIA. Similar conditions Friday with highs expected to stay in the mid 90's with another chance for record breaking heat (93 degrees at DIA in 2018). MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 804 AM Sun September 5, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, SUNNY AND DRY TODAY - High-pressure returns today leading to mostly sunny and dry conditions throughout the District. - High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80's this afternoon with mild conditions expected through the evening. - Overnight lows will dip into the mid 50's to around 60 on the plains with upper 40's to low 50's along the foothills by daybreak Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure will dominate over the region this week likely leading to dry conditions through Friday. Mid 80's to low 90's are the expected highs for both Monday and Tuesday. Denver should start inching closer to record breaking heat by mid week with highs in the low to mid 90's Wednesday and Thursday with the record high of 94 degrees at DIA set on both days. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 831 AM Sat September 4, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES - Conditions over the District will be dry today with seasonal temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 70's to lower 80's over the plains with upper 60's and 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 84 degrees. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny with light and variable winds. - The relatively cool temperatures will act to stabilize the airmass over the plains with best chances for any shower or thunderstorm activity remaining to the S over the crest of the Palmer Divide leading to dry conditions over the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: A stretch of dry weather will continue through much of next week with temperatures returning to above normal. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 723 PM Fri September 3, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 8pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. - Most areas will remain dry through the rest of the evening, however, a few widely scattered light to brief moderate isolated rain showers cannot be completely ruled out over the next few hours. These rain showers will favor northeastern and southeastern portions of the District as the tail end of the disturbance exits the region through the evening. - By 10pm skies will gradually clear with a mild overnight as lows drop into the mid to upper 50's for the plains with low 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A brief moderate rain showers could produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 319 PM Fri September 3, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's will continue valid until 8pm although the threat for heavy rainfall is diminishing now that the main area of thunderstorms has pushed eastward. - Additional isolated rain showers and weak to moderate thunderstorms remain possible over the next few hours but but the strength of storms is expected to be less intense than earlier today, however a stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1144 AM Fri September 3, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:00pm. An upper level disturbance is on the approach and is expected to produce 1-2 rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds and hail. - Steering winds from SW to NE at 15-20mph will keep storms moving along at a brisk pace but stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. Favored areas for stronger storms looks to be along and E of I-25 where moisture is deeper. Storms are currently starting to fill in over NW portions of the District and will spread to the SE as the afternoon progresses. - After 7 or 8pm the main round or two of storms is expected to have pushed eastward with lingering more isolated light rain showers remaining possible until around 10pm. Beyond 10pm dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening/overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of strong thunderstorm cells or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in up to 2.4" of rainfall in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims September 2021