June 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 924 AM Thu June 30, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED/THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS REMAIN IN QUESTION - Much cooler today over the District with high temperatures in the 80's for highs over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Surface moisture has increased and with the aid of an upper level disturbance showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous today. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall but with cloud cover this morning temperatures may not warm sufficiently to generate strong storms and the majority of the activity may trend more weak to moderate. More sun this morning would lead to a better chance of stronger storms this afternoon. - Isolated to widely scattered light rain showers will fill in this morning with chances for thunderstorms increasing after the noon hour. Multiple rounds of showers and weak to moderate thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and into the early evening. Prime time for thunderstorm activity will be from 1-9pm. Additional rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm will continue possible until midnight then generally dry conditions are expected after midnight into Friday morning. - Upper level steering winds will be from WSW to ENE at around 20mph which will keep individual storms moving along and any heavy rainfall relatively brief. Surface wind convergence may allow for a thunderstorm to anchor briefly or move more slowly allowing for a longer period of moderate to heavy rainfall which may lead to excessive runoff. Multiple ingredients are in place for heavy rainfall today resulting in a moderate risk for Message issuance but fast storm motions and cloud cover limiting the daytime heating may keep the heavy rainfall at bay? STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate non-thunderstorm rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 30-60 minutes. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong, slower moving thunderstorms if able to develop will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.5-1.2" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will decrease further on Friday with highs in the 70's and lower 80's over the plains. Much like today there will be ample moisture to work with but will the cool temperatures hinder the strong storms? Regardless, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as early as noon Friday continuing likely into the evening with the threat for heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff from stronger storms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1100 AM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 1100 AM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 1100 AM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 910 AM Wed June 29, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR PEAK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE - Temperatures will reach their peak today, topping out in the 90's over the plains with 80's in the Front Range foothills. Upper level flow will become more westerly today and with just enough moisture to work with isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected, more numerous over the foothills. A cold front will then move through this evening keeping the chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm into the late evening hours. - Between noon-2pm the initial storms will develop over the foothills and then move eastward onto the plains, likely weakening as they do so as surface moisture is lacking with dew points in the 30's. Most storms today will produce gusty winds in excess of 30-40mph and light rainfall/sprinkles through the evening. Steering winds aloft will generally be from W to E at 15-20mph. - Later this evening, sometime between 8pm and midnight a cold front will move through and will likely produce the best chances for precipitation today as a few showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm may develop as the front moves through. After midnight conditions expected to dry out for the remainder of the overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. A moderate thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop this evening along a cold front resulting in rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Thursday and with more moisture to work with there will be a significant increase in thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop shortly after noon over the foothills then spread out onto the plains by early afternoon. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will then be likely into the evening with additional rain showers possible overnight. Some storms Thursday may become strong to severe with moderate to heavy rainfall and possibly hail. A high risk for thunderstorms will the potential to produce heavy rainfall will continue Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The first Message day of the season is expected over the coming days. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 832 AM Tue June 28, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND DRY PLAINS WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK STORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS - Temperatures will continue to warm today with highs topping out in the lower 90's over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 87 degrees. - NW flow aloft has pushed much of the available moisture for storms to the S resulting in a dry day over the majority of the District with possibly a weak storm over the foothills this afternoon. Skies will trend sunny to mostly sunny over the plains today becoming partly cloudy at times over the higher terrain. - Showers and weak thunderstorms if they are able to develop over the foothills will be between 2-7pm producing gusty winds and minimal rain. Since the best chances for any moisture will be outside the District boundaries the QPF table will be omitted today as no meaningful moisture is expected within the District itself. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation expected today, less than 0.1" over the higher mountains and foothills. A LOOK AHEAD: Flow aloft becomes more westerly on Wednesday and will begin to import better mid and upper level moisture into the state resulting in isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Storms that develop tomorrow will mainly produce gusty winds and minimal rain. Temperatures will tack on a degree or two over the plains with most areas well into the 90's. Thunderstorm chances increase on Thursday and peak on Friday or Saturday. Thunderstorms Thr-Sat will have the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 934 AM Mon June 27, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SUNSHINE RETURNS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS - Sunshine returns to the District today allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 80's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 87 degrees. - Daytime heating and available moisture will combine to produce a build-up of clouds this afternoon and few isolated rain showers and weak thunderstorms will be the result. Between 1-3pm isolated thunderstorms will develop over the foothills with upper level flow from the NW pushing storms to the SE over the plains between 3-5pm. There will then be a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms until about 8 or 9pm then conditions dry out for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - Typical thunderstorms that develop today will produce light to briefly moderate rain. Best chances will be over the foothills and Palmer Divide with storms on the plains likely favoring areas along and W of I-25 with lesser chances eastward. Most areas over the plains likely miss out on measurable rain today. Storms will move from NW to SE at 15-20mph keeping the shower activity over a single point relatively brief. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Generally dry conditions are expected over the District on Tuesday with any thunderstorm activity confined to the higher terrain leaving the plains on the dry side. Temperatures will continue to climb with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 90's over the plains with 80's in the foothills. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 901 AM Sun June 26, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOL TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING - Cloudy and cool as temperatures currently in the mid to upper 50's. Cloud cover should hold throughout the day, which will limit storm activity this afternoon and evening, however there is still a good chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. - Rain showers and thunderstorms will likely initiate along the higher terrain around midday today with a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms moving onto the plains and into the District between 1-6pm this afternoon and early evening with a few isolated rain showers possible after 6pm through 10pm this evening before skies gradually start to clear out. A decent amount of available moisture this morning at the low-levels will keep a low chance for rain showers to be moderate to briefly heavy, although with high temperatures expected in the upper 60's to low 70's there will only be a slight chance for good storm development off of the foothills this afternoon. - Overnight will be mild and cooler as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50's on the plains with around 50Â°F along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" in 10- 30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to briefly strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure starts to build tomorrow, along with mostly sunny skies will lead to much warmer high temperatures tomorrow with highs reaching a more seasonable low to mid 80's. Another chance for afternoon and early evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with rainfall chances tapering off by sunset. Hot and dry conditions return Tuesday as highs reach the upper 80's to low 90's on the plains with low to mid 80's along the foothills. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 636 PM Sat June 25, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- TOO COOL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT - Temperatures remained too cool over the District to initiate thunderstorms this afternoon with the majority of the activity remaining well to the S and W over Clear Creek, Park, Teller and El Paso Counties. Widely scattered rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm or two are still expected to develop as the evening wears on with lingering light rain showers likely into Sunday morning. - Best chances for precipitation through midnight will be W of I-25 and S of I-70. After midnight better chances spread out onto the plains for experiencing light rain showers into Sunday morning. The potential for heavy rainfall has diminished for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - Total rainfall amounts overnight expected to be minor, between a TR-0.2" over the majority of the District with isolated higher amounts over the foothills and Palmer Divide. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A weak thunderstorm will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to briefly strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will struggle to make it much above 70 degrees over the plains on Sunday. The unseasonably cool temperatures and cloud cover at times will likely result in the majority of the thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain again tomorrow. Should thunderstorms be able to develop over the plains they will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 800 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Arapahoe 800 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Broomfield 800 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Denver 800 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (85%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 937 AM Sat June 25, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE EVENING HOURS/HIGHER TERRAIN - A cold front has moved through this morning and is resulting in cloud cover which will help to keep temperatures below normal in the lower 70's over the plains with 60's in the Front Range foothills. Multiple ingredients are in play for thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall today but the strength of storms today will hinge upon daytime heating and that factor is limited. - With cloud cover early thunderstorm development will hold off until mid afternoon most areas with the majority of the storm activity focusing in the evening and early overnight hours. Between 1-3pm shower and thunderstorms are expected to initiate over the western foothills and Palmer Divide. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will then fill in over the plains between 3-5pm. Best chances for light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms will be through about midnight. Storms will move from WSW to ENE at around 15mph. Some storms may move erratically due to outflow boundary/gust front interactions. Additional, light rain showers continue likely overnight. - The current thinking is that the clouds over the plains will decrease the intensity of storms over the majority of the District with the greatest threat for moderate to strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall over the foothills and higher terrain of the Palmer Divide on the W and S District fringes. If temperatures warm further than expected due to more sunshine earlier in the day the threat for heavy rainfall will spread out onto the plains. To summarize, there is the potential for heavy rainfall today but it is far from certain whether any of the stronger storms will be able to impact the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms if able to develop will have the potential to produce up to 1.2" in 30 minutes or less. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Temperatures warm more than expected resulting in strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.6-1.8" in 15-45 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will remain on the fool side Sunday with highs around 70 degrees over the plains. There will be a slight chance for a few lingering light rain showers into Sunday morning with thunderstorms becoming possible in the afternoon. Much like today the best chances for thunderstorms will be over the foothills and Palmer Divide with lesser chances over the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (50%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 200 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (50%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1004 AM Fri June 24, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Mid level moisture advection from the Pacific will create conditions for another round of light to moderate rainfall this afternoon and early evening. Current temperatures are in the upper 70's to low 80's across the District and will continue to climb into the upper 80's to low 90's by this afternoon, with dew points in the low to mid 40's. - Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected primarily across the foothills and Palmer Divide. A few isolated showers will roll off the foothills and into the District between 2pm to 6pm. - By sunset, rain shower activity will decrease with skies clearing through the overnight hours. A cool front will sweep across the plains overnight, positioning a cooler airmass over the state. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's on the plains with mid 40's across the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" in 30 minutes or less. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 0.4" of rainfall in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: High temperatures on Saturday will reach the upper 70's to low 80's as cloud cover increases throughout the day. Widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of producing moderate rainfall will begin to develop Saturday afternoon, persisting into the evening. Light rain showers may linger overnight and into Sunday morning. The Front Range Urban Corridor will continue cooling on Sunday as highs reach the mid 70's. Showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day and into the overnight hours. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 937 AM Thu June 23, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Mid level moisture advection from the Pacific will create conditions for light to moderate rainfall this afternoon and early evening. Current temperatures are in the low to mid 70's across the District and will continue to climb into the upper 80's to low 90's by this afternoon. - A round of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected primarily across the foothills and Palmer Divide today. There is a slight chance an isolated shower or two rolls off the foothills and into the District between 3pm to 7pm. - By sunset, rain shower activity will decrease with skies clearing through the overnight hours. Overnight lows will drop into the low 60's on the plains with upper 40's across the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow, highs will reach the upper 80's to low 90's with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. A cool front will sweep across the plains overnight on Friday, positioning a cooler airmass over the state. High temperatures on Saturday will reach the upper 70's to low 80's as cloud cover increases throughout the day. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop Saturday afternoon, persisting into the evening. Light rain showers may linger overnight and into Sunday morning. The Front Range Urban Corridor will continue cooling on Sunday, with highs in the mid 70's with showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 831 AM Wed June 22, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER, MILD AND DRY TODAY - A small ridge of high-pressure will build over the region leading to mild and dry conditions throughout the day today. Currently temperatures are in the mid 60's and will increase with highs in the mid to upper 80's this afternoon. - Variable winds currently between 0-5 mph will pick up from the S/SE this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph favoring SE portions of the District. Winds will decrease before sunset with mild conditions through the overnight. - Overnight lows will dip into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions to start the day tomorrow as high-pressure continues to hold with high temperatures topping out in the low 90's. A slight chance for high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, however, precipitation looks minimal at this time. Friday remain rather warm with highs once again topping out around 90Â°F with another chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with a slightly better chance for moderate to some isolated brief heavy rainfall. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 6 months

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