June 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 834 AM Sun June 12, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AGAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE HGH-BASED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - After reaching the record of 100Â°F out at DIA yesterday, today will have the same opportunity as highs are projected in the mid to upper 90's this afternoon. The record high for Denver is 97Â°F which was set back in 1952. There will be a slight chance for high-based afternoon and early evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. - Best chance for high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will be between noon and 6pm. Storm motions will be from W/SW to E/NE between 10-15mph which will also help limit any point rainfall amounts. There is a very slight chance storms will become severe, mainly due to high winds of 60mph+ with a better chances the further east of the I-25 corridor. Skies will gradually begin to clear after 6pm. - Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60's across the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills with mild and dry conditions expected through daybreak Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers or a weak thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain in 30 minutes or less. A moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.1-0.3" of rainfall in 30 minutes or less. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, slow-moving thunderstorm is able to develop and will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" of rainfall in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Another hot, breezy day Monday with high temperatures remaining in the 90's with dry conditions expected throughout the day and evening. A cold front moves in Tuesday effectively dropping high temperatures back to a more seasonable low to mid 80's. Not much moisture is associated with the front, which will likely keep conditions dry at this time. Wednesday will jump back into the upper 80's to around 90Â°F with continued dry conditions. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 835 AM Sat June 11, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- NEAR RECORD BREAKING HEAT WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - High-pressure continues to dominate over the region today leading to near record breaking heat as high temperatures reach the upper 90's to 100Â°F this afternoon. The current record for today at DIA is 100Â°F set back in 2013. - With highs well into the 90's and dew points projected in the upper 20's to low 30's this afternoon will result in a very slight chance for a few scattered rain showers this afternoon and early evening. However, due to rather dry conditions at the surface, most if not all precipitation will struggle to reach the surface today resulting in a better chance for gusty winds rather than any rainfall. Best chance to see and high-based showers will be from 2-6pm with skies clearing into the evening. - Overnight will remain mild and dry with lows dropping into the low to mid 60's across the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce 0-TR of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm could produce a TR-0.1" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm is able to develop and will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The heat will stay through the weekend as high temperatures are expected to remain in the 90's. A slight increase in mid to low-level moisture tomorrow will increase afternoon and evening rain shower/isolated thunderstorm chances, however the threat for heavy remain will remain minimal at best. Monday will be dry with continued heat as highs remain in the 90's. Similar conditions Tuesday with a slight chance for scattered afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 941 AM Fri June 10, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT, DRY, AND SUNNY SUMMER CONDITIONS - A strong high-pressure ridge continues to dominate the intermountain west, creating hot, dry, and subsident conditions with mostly clear skies. - The warming trend continues today with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90's, dew points in the upper 30's, across the District. Portions of the foothills will be a bit cooler, with highs reaching the low to mid 80's. - Tonight, skies remain clear with overnight lows dropping into the mid 60's over the plains, low 50's in the Front Range foothills. Dry conditions will persist overnight and through tomorrow morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected across the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: This weekend will be hot and mostly sunny, with temperatures soaring into the mid to upper 90's. There is a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. The dome of high-pressure will remain anchored to the intermountain west through Monday, with high temperatures reaching the mid 90's under clear skies. A cool front on Tuesday will provide some relief from the heat. High temperatures are expected to be in the low 80's with another round of afternoon summer showers and thunderstorms. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 933 AM Thu June 9, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - A strong high-pressure ridge is building over the intermountain west, creating hot summertime conditions under partly cloudy skies. Westerly flow aloft will transport warm air into the District today allowing temperatures to climb to around 90 degrees across the plains, around 80 degrees along the Front Range foothills. - There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms from early afternoon to sunset. Dewpoints will be around 20 degrees today, limiting storm potential. Any showers that manage to roll off the foothills this afternoon will be weak, producing minimal rainfall. Most areas within the District will be dry today. - Tonight, cloud cover will decrease with overnight lows dropping into the 50's over the plains with some 40's in the Front Range foothills. Dry conditions will persist overnight and through tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers or weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 60 minutes or less. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to briefly strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The warming trend continues Friday as high temperatures reach the low to mid 90's with clear skies. This weekend will be hot, dry, and sunny, with temperatures soaring into the mid to upper 90's. The dome of high-pressure will remain anchored to the intermountain west through Monday, with high temperatures reaching the upper 90's under clear skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 848 AM Wed June 8, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY TODAY - High-pressure starts to slowly build over the region leading to dry conditions today and into this evening and through the overnight into Thursday. - Today's high temperatures will reach the upper 70's to low 80's on the plains this afternoon, low 70's along the foothills, with mild conditions expected as surface winds will be between 5-10mph from the S/SE through this afternoon. Variable winds expected through the overnight between 0-5mph. - Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 50's on the plains with upper 40's to low 50's along the foothills with continued mild and dry conditions into Thursday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer conditions in store for the District into the weekend as high-pressure continues to build. Tomorrow will flirt with highs around 90Â°F with a very slight chance for a few high-based rain/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening with minimal if any precipitation expected as most precipitation will struggle to reach the surface. Similar high temperatures Friday with highs around 90Â°F along with dry conditions expected throughout the day. This weekend high temperatures jump into the low to mid 90's with dry conditions likely. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 629 PM Tue June 7, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING/ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT - Elevated moisture levels over the District today with surface dew points in the upper 40's to lower 50's in tandem with daytime heating produced a boom or bust type setup for thunderstorms and the outcome has been "bust" over the District as the strong thunderstorm activity initiated to the S and E. - Now that temperatures are beginning to back off from afternoon highs the threat for strong thunderstorms is decreasing but not completely eliminated. Outflow from storms to the E and SE could push back westward and trigger thunderstorm development towards the I-25 corridor. However, the risk for thunderstorms will decrease each hour through sunset. - A cold front will also move through late this evening and will produce low clouds and a few widely scattered light rain showers overnight with possibly an isolated rumble of thunder. Cloud cover may persist into Wednesday morning but the shower activity is expected to have ended ahead of daybreak. Shower activity overnight will likely favor areas in and near the foothills and over the Palmer Divide with light amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Outflow boundary from thunderstorms to the E/SE pushes back into the District triggering strong thunderstorm development with the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Drier air is expected to work its way into the District on Wednesday lowering the chances for thunderstorms with isolated coverage anticipated, favoring the foothills and Palmer Divide. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 70's to lower 80's over the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 855 AM Tue June 7, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Elevated surface moisture remains in place behind a disturbance that moved through the region yesterday. Dew points are currently in the low 50's across the District and should hold through the morning. This increased moisture, combined with another weak disturbance will keep a low threat for brief heavy rainfall as some storms have the potential to become severe this afternoon, favoring areas west of the I-25 corridor at this time. Severe storms will favor strong winds with gusts over 60mph along with large hail up to 1.5" in diameter. - Thunderstorms will first develop over the higher terrain to the west between 11am and 1pm with the best chance for storm development in the District between noon and 8pm this evening. A few rounds of storms will be possible, although the best chance for heavy rainfall will be with the initial round of storm development this afternoon. Storm motions from W to E at 10-20mph which will keep storms moving along and rainfall brief from a single storm. Training of thunderstorm cells may result in longer periods of rainfall. - After 8pm rain shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to have diminished with a few light rain showers possible through 10pm with a few scattered light rain showers possible between 2am through daybreak tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the low 50's along the plains with mid to upper 40's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells, or a severe thunderstorm may produce rainfall amounts of up to 1.0" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer, drier air begins to move into the region Wednesday, however a slight threat for afternoon and early evening rain/isolated thunderstorms will remain. The chance for moderate to heavy rainfall will diminish Wednesday with gusty winds and an isolated lightning strike or two being the largest threat. Similar conditions Thursday with high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly for areas north of I-70. Drier and even warmer conditions as the weekend approaches with near or at 90Â° both Thursday and Friday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 930 AM Mon June 6, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WETTING RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY - An upper level disturbance and weak cool front is expected to increase thunderstorm activity today over the District. The front will have minimal impact on temperatures as they will be near normal for this time of year in the lower 80's for highs over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. More importantly, surface moisture has increased allowing storms that develop today to produce wetting rainfall with minor runoff possible. - Heavy rainfall is not expected as most storms will produce light to moderate rainfall with strong storms potentially producing brief heavy rain as well as gusty winds and possibly hail. Best chances for stronger storms today will be E of the District where moisture is deeper, but a very isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. 1-3 rounds of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through during the afternoon with isolated light rain showers continuing possible into the early overnight period. - Thunderstorms will first develop over the higher terrain to the W between 11am and 1pm. Upper level steering winds will then push the storm activity onto the plains by 1-2pm. Prime time for thunderstorm activity will be between 2-10pm. Storm motions from W/WNW to E/ESE at 15-25mph will keep storms moving along and rainfall brief from a single storm. Training of thunderstorm cells may result in longer periods of rainfall. After 10pm thunderstorm activity is expected to have diminished with a few light rain showers possible through midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells may produce rainfall amounts of up to 1.0" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: We will tack on a few degrees to high temperatures on Tuesday with readings in the low to mid 80's over the plains. Thunderstorm coverage will decrease but surface moisture will remain resulting in the storms that do develop potentially becoming moderate to strong. Best chances however, will be to the S and E of the District. A little cooler Wednesday with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 859 AM Sun June 5, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS - Mid and upper level moisture pushing through the state will produce partly to mostly cloudy skies through the day today. Even with the increased cloud cover today temperatures will warm into the low and mid 80's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 80 degrees. - The additional upper level moisture will result in a little better thunderstorm coverage this afternoon over the District compared to yesterday but not everyone will experience a storm today. The typical storms that develop this afternoon will be high-based producing light rainfall and gusty winds. Gusts may reach or exceed 30mph near active storms. If a moderate thunderstorm is able to develop a brief wetting rain is possible but heavy rainfall is not anticipated. - Thunderstorms will initiate over the foothills between noon and 2pm with prime time for storms over the plains from 2-8pm. Upper level steering winds from the W to NW at 15-20mph will keep storms moving along and any meaningful rainfall brief. After 8pm conditions will be drying out with possibly an isolated rain shower overnight favoring the higher mountains and foothills W of the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. A moderate thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" rainfall rates in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Higher moisture values work their way into the I-25 corridor this afternoon allowing for a strong thunderstorm to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An upper level disturbance will move through the area on Monday along with a weak surface cold front. The result will be slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 70's to lower 80's for highs over the plains with an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evening. Additional surface moisture behind the front will help to fuel storms and moderate to strong thunderstorms may develop with the potential to produce small areas of moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Additional light rain showers continue possible overnight Monday with dry conditions ahead of daybreak Tuesday morning. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 900 AM Sat June 4, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMING UP WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - Westerly flow aloft will import warmer and drier air into the District today allowing temperatures to climb well into the 80's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 79 degrees. - Daytime heating and surface moisture will result in a build up of clouds this afternoon making for partly to mostly cloudy skies at times and introducing a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms from early afternoon to sunset. Moisture is more limited today and the storms that manage to develop this afternoon will be weak producing minimal rainfall and breezy winds. Most areas within the District will end up on the drier side today. - Tonight, cloud cover will decrease with overnight lows dropping into the 50's over the plains with some 40's in the Front Range foothills. Dry conditions will persist overnight into midday Sunday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers or weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 30 minutes or less. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to briefly strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: More of the same for Sunday with temperatures warming into the low and mid 80's over the plains with isolated afternoon thunderstorm activity. Much like today storms that develop Sunday will produce minimal rainfall and gusty winds. Better chances for thunderstorms will arrive late afternoon Monday or Monday evening as a weather disturbance moves in from the NW. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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