August 2023 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 805 PM Fri August 18, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. Stronger storms that impacted the District this afternoon have moved well east at this time. Atmospheric conditions will remain capped through the overnight hours, supporting little to no chances for precipitation. Skies will gradually clear through the rest of the overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected overnight. WORST CASE SCENARIO: In the event an isolated shower develops, a trace to 0.25” total is possible in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 419 PM Fri August 18, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 9:00pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has increased into the late afternoon and evening. A few weak showers and thunderstorms moved across the District this afternoon. A stronger line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving in from the SW and will progress through the District over the next few hours. This line of storms will have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall leading to isolated LOW IMPACT FLOODING for portions of the District. The main threat will likely be a quick 0.4-0.6” in 10-15 minutes, rather than long lasting heavy rainfall. Storms will generally move from the SW to NE between 10-15mph, which should help limit point rainfall amounts, although a gust front from a stronger storm will have the potential to produce erratic storm movements from storms initiating off these outflow boundaries. Storm chances will decrease after sunset with a few lingering showers possible through 10pm. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce 0.60-1.20” total in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 908 AM Fri August 18, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A southwesterly flow aloft will dominate over the region today ahead of a weak disturbance that will move through this afternoon and evening. This weak disturbance will bring a good chance for widespread showers/thunderstorms starting around midday for the higher terrain foothills with multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms possible into the evening hours, with chances likely tapering off between 9-10pm. Typical storm motions will be from the SW to NE, between 10-15mph, helping limit point rainfall amounts. However, stronger storms will have the potential to produce outflow boundaries with some slower moving storms along these boundaries. Due to dew points remaining in the low to mid 50s through the morning, there will be at least a MOD chance for Message 1s to be issued, mainly for the threat of a quick 0.5” in 10-15min from any outflow boundary induced storms. Overnight will be breezy and dry with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s on the plains with mid to upper 50s in the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce 0.50-1.00” total in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Not much overall change to the upper-level pattern tomorrow bringing another chance for afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms. An overall decrease in moisture, both at the surface and aloft will result in a less chance for meaningful storms. Conditions start to dry out on Sunday as high temperatures remain in the 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 551 PM Thu August 17, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- STORMS HAVE STRENGTHENED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND COULD MOVE INTO THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING Dew points in the District have remained in the upper 40s to low 50s which has increased the chance for some brief heavy rainfall into this evening. Storms this afternoon have not lasted off the foothills, however as we move into the evening, and we cool slightly, a better chance these storms will continue to last into the District. Generally storms will have the best chance of heavy rainfall for areas west of I-25, although a gust front from a stronger storm could have the potential to initiate additional storm storms throughout the District into the evening. The biggest threat will be a quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes, with storms likely pulsing up and down as they slowly progress eastward. These slow storm motions, combined with dew points in the around 50 degrees has resulted in a LOW chance of Message 1s to be issued this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.50-1.00” total in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An overall increase in moisture in the area tomorrow will likely bring a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the District as high temperatures remain in the 90s. Upper-level flow will shift southwesterly bringing a slight chance for stronger storm development tomorrow, especially for areas east of the I-25 corridor, which will likely result in a LOW chance for Message 1s to be issued. Conditions dry out Saturday, however a slight chance for a few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain with minimal precipitation expected at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 916 AM Thu August 17, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS High-pressure continues to build over the region resulting in high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Another slight chance for a few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Once again storms should stay mainly along the foothills as most precipitation struggles to reach the surface on the plains. This is in part due to the continued wide temperature/dew point spread with high temperatures in the 90s and dew points expected to mix out into the low to mid 40s throughout the day today. Initial storm development will be along the Continental Divide around midday and move onto the foothills between 12-1pm. The best chance for storm activity within the District will be between 1-7pm with skies gradually clearing through the evening. Overnight will be breezy and dry with lows dropping into the 60s on the plains with upper 50s to around 60 degrees in the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.10” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An overall increase in moisture in the area tomorrow will likely bring a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the District as high temperatures remain in the 90s. Upper-level flow will shift southwesterly bringing a slight chance for stronger storm development tomorrow, especially for areas east of the I-25 corridor, which will likely result in a LOW chance for Message 1s to be issued. Conditions dry out Saturday, however a slight chance for a few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain with minimal precipitation expected at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 859 AM Wed August 16, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS High-pressure continues to hold over the region today resulting in high temperatures to reach the mid 90s this afternoon. A slight chance for a few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, mainly along the foothills as most precipitation struggles to reach the surface on the plains. This is in part due to the wide temperature/dew point spread with high temperatures in the 90s and dew points expected to remain in the low to mid 40s throughout the day today. Initial storm development will be along the Continental Divide by midday and move onto the foothills between 1-2pm. The best chance for storm activity within the District will be between 2-7pm. General storm motions will be from the N/NW to S/SE between 10-15mph with some erratic storm movement possible if stronger storms are able to develop and produce outflow boundaries, however, there will be a minimal chance for any strong storm development today. Overnight will be mild and dry with lows dropping into the 60s on the plains with upper 50s to around 60 degrees in the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.10” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An overall decrease in moisture in the area tomorrow will likely bring dry conditions across the District as high temperatures remain in the 90s. A chance for afternoon and early evening showers/isolated thunderstorms Friday as high temperatures hold in the 90s. Similar conditions remain in place Saturday with another chance for afternoon/evening showers/isolated thunderstorms with high temperatures once again reaching the 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.25" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 920 AM Tue August 15, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY The drying and warming pattern continues today as a heat dome settles across the Desert Southwest. Today will be hot with afternoon temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s under sunny skies. Atmospheric conditions will be stable across the District, therefore no storm activity expected. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No Rainfall is expected across the District today. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stray shower rolls off the foothills onto the plains and produces a trace ton 0.25” in 30-45 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow morning will be sunny followed by afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. The intense heat continues Thursday, lingering through the remainder of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 854 AM Mon August 14, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY A drying and warming pattern begins today as a heat dome over the Desert Southwest expands into the Four Corners region. Today will be mostly sunny followed by highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Atmospheric conditions will be stable across the District, therefore no storm activity expected. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected today WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stray shower rolls off the foothills onto the plains and produces a trace ton 0.25” in 30-45 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow, afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s under sunny skies once again. Heat intensifies Wednesday, lingering through the remainder of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s with clear and sunny skies. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 848 AM Sun August 13, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS An upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will work its way across the High Plains this morning, followed by a chance for scattered showers and storms. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s, with dew points in the upper 40s to around 50°F. Atmospheric conditions today are expected to remain stable, limiting storm development across the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will be weak, producing rainfall of TR-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Stronger storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25” to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm may have the potential to produce 0.50” to 1.00” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow morning will be mostly sunny followed by highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers mainly over the foothills. A drying pattern will begin on Tuesday as upper-level ridging expands into the Intermountain West. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s under sunny skies. On Wednesday, high temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s with clear skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 832 AM Sat August 12, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS West-southwesterly flow aloft has developed broadly across Colorado as an upper-level disturbance traverses the Northern Plains. This morning will be partly cloudy followed by high temperatures in the mid to upper 80 with dew points in the upper 40s. Isolated to Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already developed across the mountains and will move east onto the Plains by late morning. Storm activity is expected to move east by the early evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will be weak, producing rainfall of TR-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Stronger storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25” to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.50” to 1.00” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow, an upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and storms across the Front Range Urban Corridor. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Looking ahead, Monday morning will be mostly sunny followed by highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers. A drying pattern will begin on Tuesday as upper-level ridging expands into the Intermountain West. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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