Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 447 PM Fri August 11, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
STRONGER STORMS MOVING OVER THE FOOTHILLS CURRENTLY WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL
An isolated stronger thunderstorm is currently moving over the
foothills and should enter the District over the next hour or so. This
cell isn’t particularly strong; however, this storm did trigger
0.20" in 5-10 minutes, resulting in an upgrade to a LOW Message
potential heading into this evening. Storms have mostly mixed out this
afternoon and will likely continue to do so. Although a gust front
could produce a stronger storm development withing the District with
the potential for some brief isolated heavy rainfall into this
evening. Storm chances should taper off by sunset with a few lingering
off and on showers possible through 10pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.25” in 10 to 30 minutes. A
weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25 to 0.50” in 10 to 30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to
produce up to 1.00” in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions will be similar this weekend, with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s and a slight chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms. On Sunday evening, an upper-level disturbance and its
associated cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and
storms across the Front Range Urban Corridor.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 902 AM Fri August 11, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARM AND SUNNY WITH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
West-northwesterly flow aloft has developed broadly across Colorado
as an upper-level disturbance traverses the Northern Plains. As a
result, down sloping winds will help to suppress thunderstorm activity
today on the Plains. This morning will be sunny followed by high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the low
40s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
mountains this afternoon. A few storms will move east of the mountains
in the late afternoon and evening. Lightning activity will be limited,
but weak showers may produce localized gusty winds with little rain.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will be weak,
producing rainfall of TR-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. Stronger
storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.20” to
0.40” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training thunderstorms have the potential to
produce 0.40” to 0.80” in 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions will be similar this weekend, with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s and a slight chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms. On Sunday evening, an upper-level disturbance and its
associated cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and
storms across the Front Range Urban Corridor.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Denver
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (15%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (15%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 857 AM Thu August 10, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARM SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
Westerly upper-level flow will dominate the region today as a weak
ridge of high-pressure sits towards our south. This will lead to warm
temperatures today in the mid to upper 80s across the plains with low
to mid 80s along the foothills. A slight chance for widely scattered
afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms between 2-8pm with skies
quickly clearing this evening. Storms today will likely be high based
with minimal rainfall as temperature/dew point spreads likely between
40-50 degrees this afternoon as dew points drop into the low to mid
40s. If dew points struggle to mix out today, a slight chance for a
few meaningful thunderstorms, favoring eastern portions of the
District through the afternoon and evening. Mild and dry conditions
are expected through the overnight with temperatures dropping into the
low 60s on the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. A
weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.20-0.40” total in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of moderate
thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.40-0.80” total in under
60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions will be in place tomorrow as high
temperatures reach around 90 degrees. A slightly better chance for
afternoon/eve showers/isolated thunderstorms, with a couple of rounds
possible. A better chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms Saturday,
possibly with a LOW chance for Message 1’s to be issued as an uptick
in moisture at the surface and upper level is likely.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 859 AM Wed August 9, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARMER SUNNY AND DRY TODAY
High-pressure will start to build leading to mild and dry conditions
throughout the day today. High temperatures will reach the low to mid
80s across the plains with upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the
foothills. Mostly sunny skies through the afternoon and into the
evening. Overnight will continue mild and dry with lows dropping into
the low 60s on the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer tomorrow with a very slight chance for a few late
afternoon/eve high-based showers and possible a rumble of thunder or
two. Minimal rainfall will be expected as most precipitation will
struggle to reach the surface. Similar conditions in place Friday with
a slightly better chance for afternoon/eve showers/isolated
thunderstorms. The best chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms will
be Saturday, possibly with a LOW chance for Message 1’s to be issued
as an uptick in moisture at the surface and upper-level is likely.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 901 AM Tue August 8, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LATE INTO THIS EVENING
Westerly upper-level flow continues to dominate over the region
today. Mild and dry currently, storms will likely initiate along the
higher terrain by or just after midday. These storms will move
eastward and onto the plains during the afternoon, between 2-4pm,
likely increasing in strength east of I-25 as they move out of the
District. Storms today will continue to move from west to east between
20-30mph, which will help limit point rainfall amounts. However, with
a low chance of severe weather today, will result in at least a LOW
chance for Message 1’s to be issued this afternoon and evening as
there will be a threat for brief isolated heavy rainfall.
Two or three rounds of storms will be possible today, lasting into the
early overnight as upper-level winds increase over the region through
the evening. A slight chance for severe weather today, especially
areas east of I-25 for gusty winds 60mph and hail up to 1”. Due to
storm motions, the largest threat for heavy rainfall today will be a
quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes, with a chance for isolated higher
amounts if storms anchor along outflow boundaries for an extended
period.
Skies will stay partly cloudy through the overnight with lows in the
mid to upper 50’s to low 60’s on the plains with low to mid 50’s
along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak
thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total
in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, stalled out thunderstorm formed along
an outflow boundary is able to develop, will have the potential to
produce up to 1.00” total, in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure starts to build tomorrow leading to a
slight dry stretch over the Denver metro Wednesday and likely Thursday
as high temperatures flirt with the 90 degrees. A better chance for
showers/isolated thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, however, the
threat for any heavy rainfall remains minimal, at best.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1159 PM
0.05" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 911 AM Mon August 7, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
Warmer temperatures are expected today as the heat dome over the
Desert Southwest begins to expand into the Four Corners region again.
This morning will be sunny followed by afternoon temperatures in the
low to mid 80s, dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s, with isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Storm motions will be fast,
moving from west to east between 30 to 40 mph. Quick storm motions
will help limit point rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to subside across the Front Range Urban Corridor by this
evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms will
produce rainfall of 0.10" to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Strong
storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25” to
0.50” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training thunderstorms have the potential to
produce 0.50” to 1.00” in 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer and dryer conditions move into the state Tuesday
with highs in the mid to upper 80s under mostly sunny skies with a
slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
warming trend continues into the remainder of the week with sunny
skies and highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 849 PM Sun August 6, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9pm as the threat of
heavy rain has come to an end.
Stronger storms that impacted the District this afternoon have moved
well east at this time. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms persist,
which will keep a continued chance for showers through midnight. Storm
motions continue to be brisk from west to east, between 20-30mph which
will also limit point rainfall amounts.
Skies will gradually clear through the rest of the overnight with
clear skies likely by daybreak tomorrow. Mild and dry conditions
expected through the overnight as low temperatures drop into the mid
to upper 50’s on the plains with low 50’s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace to 0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate
thunderstorm will produce 0.20-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of
showers/thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 0.8”
in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 331 PM Sun August 6, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM
Message 1’s have been issued effective until 9pm as there is a
threat of heavy rainfall.
Storms have initiated along northern portions of the District today
and will be moving quickly eastward through the afternoon and evening.
Dew points at this time are not exceptionally high, in the upper
40’s to low 50’s. However, strong upper-level support is near the
District, and out towards the eastern plains where strong to severe
storms are likely.
Temperatures have remained fairly cool, although there is at least a
chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall within the District this
afternoon and early evening. The best chance will be from now until
9pm with a few lingering storms through midnight tonight. A slight
chance a storm could become severe inside the District, mainly for
gusty winds and hail up to 1”. Storm motions will generally be from
west to east between 15-25mph with some erratic storm movements
possible along gust fronts. These storms will have the best chance of
producing longer lasting heavy rainfall.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/thunderstorms
will produce a 0.05-0.25” total in 10 to 30 minutes. A moderate to
strong thunderstorm will produce 0.25” to 0.50” total in 10 to 30
minutes. A strong to severe thunderstorm will produce 0.50” to
1.00” total in 10 to 30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or training of
thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.5” in under
60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 940 AM Sun August 6, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING
Cooler temperatures are expected for most of the District today
following last night’s cold front. A broad stratus deck has
developed across the area, resulting in mostly overcast skies this
morning. Cloud cover is expected through the afternoon, with patches
of sun possible. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely this afternoon through evening.
Dew points will reach the low 50s today, with PWAT values between
0.85” to 0.95”. While these conditions would normally support
higher potential 30-minute rainfall amounts, cooler temperatures and
cloud cover will help limit storm development across the District.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to subside across the Front Range
Urban Corridor by this evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms will
produce rainfall of 0.10”-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Strong
storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25” to
0.50” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored thunderstorms have the potential to
produce 0.50” to 1.50” in 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow as the heat
dome over the Desert Southwest begins to expand into the Four Corners
region again. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s
with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and dryer
conditions move into the state Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper
80s under mostly sunny skies with a slight chance for isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend continues into
the remainder of the week with sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s
to mid 90s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 845 PM Sat August 5, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9:00pm as the threat of
heavy rainfall has come to an end.
A few strong to severe storms have impacted areas around the District
this afternoon and early evening and are currently moving east and way
from the District and onto the eastern plains at this time. Skies have
cleared behind these storms and will continue through the rest of the
evening.
No additional showers are expected through the overnight as low
temperatures drop into the upper 50s to low 60s on the plains with low
to mid 50s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additonal showers are
expected at this time.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months