Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 938 AM Wed September 20, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
Mostly sunny conditions are expected across the District today as a
ridge of high pressure begins building across the Four Corners region.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 30s. A few isolated showers are possible
this afternoon over complex terrain but are not expected to move onto
the plains.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
light rainfall of up to 0.15” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to
produce up to 0.30” total rainfall 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A drying pattern emerges Thursday with mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Friday will
be sunny and breezy with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A cold
front is expected to traverse the High Plains Friday evening,
supporting a slight chance for isolated evening storms. Looking ahead
to the weekend, skies will be sunny with highs in the mid to upper
70s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%)
NONE
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%)
NONE
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%)
NONE
Broomfield
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%)
NONE
Denver
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 935 AM Tue September 19, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
An active weather pattern is expected across the District as a short
wave traverses the state today. High temperatures will reach the upper
70s to low 80s with isolated storms rolling off the foothills around
mid afternoon. Dewpoints will range from the mid to upper 30s, with
PWAT values around 0.60”, supporting brief periods of light rain and
gusty winds. Storm motions will be from west to east and are expected
to clear the area by mid evening. Skies will gradually clear
overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
light rainfall of up to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to
produce up to 0.50” total rainfall 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A warming and drying pattern will emerge tomorrow and
Thursday with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low to
mid 80s. On Friday evening, a cold front is expected to traverse the
High Plains supporting a slight chance for evening storms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Broomfield
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Denver
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 918 AM Mon September 18, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SLIGHT CHANGE FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS
A layer of high clouds has developed across the Front Range Urban
Corridor this morning as light westerly flow aloft remains in place.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 80s, with
dew points in the 30s and PWAT values around 0.50”. These conditions
support a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon to evening. Storms are expected to dissipate by the evening
hours, with skies gradually clearing overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
light rainfall of up to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to
produce up to 0.50” total rainfall 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be more active as a short wave traverses
the state. Afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
with isolated storms. Wednesday will be similar with high temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s and isolated showers and thunderstorms.
This pattern will remain in place through the remainder of the week
with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and a chance
for isolated storms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Broomfield
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Denver
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 845 AM Sun September 17, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ANOTHER WARM, SUNNY, AND DRY TODAY
High-pressure starts to build today leading to mostly sunny skies as
high temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s on the plains with
mid to upper 70s along the foothills this afternoon. Dry conditions
throughout the day and through tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into
the low to mid 50s on the plains with mid to upper 40s along the
foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place on Monday with highs
remaining in the low 80s. Slightly cooler Tuesday with a slight chance
for a few showers/isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the foothills
and Palmer Divide, however, a few showers/isolated thunderstorms could
move across the I-25 corridor and into the District. The best chance
for showers/isolated thunderstorms will be in the afternoon with
lingering showers into the evening possible.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 845 AM Sat September 16, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARMER, SUNNY, AND DRY TODAY
Cool, dry air has moved into the region after a couple of rainy
days. Temperatures this morning were a bit chilly, dropping into the
low to mid 40s on the plains with upper 30s along the foothills.
Mostly sunny skies today will lead to warmer high temperatures this
afternoon with highs expected in the mid to upper 70s. Dry conditions
throughout the day and likely through the rest of the weekend.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 40s on the plains with
low to mid 40s possible along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure starts to build on Sunday bringing high
temperatures back to a more seasonable low 80s with continued sunny
skies throughout the day. Similar conditions remain in place on Monday
with highs remaining in the low 80s. Slightly cooler Tuesday with a
slight chance for a few showers/isolated thunderstorms, mainly along
the foothills and Palmer Divide at this time.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1029 AM Fri September 15, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
COOL, CLOUDY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY
The light rain across the metro area continues this morning from
last night/yesterday’s storms will fully dissipate by midday today.
Afternoon highs will be limited due to the rainfall from last night
and this morning, only reaching the upper 60s. Rainfall today will be
minimal with generally between a trace and 0.20”. Cloud cover will
be overcast in the morning, then will be partly cloudy later, as well
as calm winds throughout the day and into the night. Overnight will be
mild and dry with lows dropping into the 40s on the plains with upper
30s possible along the higher terrain foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate shower or weak thunderstorm will
produce rainfall of 0.20 to 0.40” total in 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer Saturday as high temperatures reach the mid to
upper 70s under mostly sunny skies. High-pressure starts to build on
Sunday bringing high temperatures back to a more seasonable low 80s
with continued sunny skies throughout the day. Similar conditions
remain in place on Monday with highs remaining in the low 80s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 200 PM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 824 PM Thu September 14, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9pm as the threat of
heavy rain has come to an end.
Stronger storms that impacted the District this afternoon have moved
east at this time, with light showers lingering across the foothills.
Light to moderate intermittent showers are possible throughout the
evening and overnight hours, with overnight temperatures in the upper
40s to low 50s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Stratified rainfall will
continue overnight, producing a trace to 0.20” total in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Moderate showers could produce 0.20”-0.40”
total in 10-30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 226 PM Thu September 14, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM
A cold front will pass through the Front Range Urban Corridor
keeping fall-like temperatures in place and will likely bring
widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs this afternoon will
be stunted, only reaching the mid 70s for the plains with upper 60s to
low 70s along the foothills. Showers and thunderstorms have initiated
along the foothills and will increase in coverage over the next hour
or so. Showers and thunderstorms become widespread between 4-6 PM.
Chances of severe storms are very unlikely within the District as
temperatures remain cool today, however, elevated available moisture
will bring pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall which could
potentially lead to some localized flooding under stronger storms. The
peak timing for heavy rainfall will be between 4-8pm. Thunderstorm and
heavy rainfall chances will likely dissipate by 8-9pm with widespread
light to moderate showers dominating the area and continuing through
the overnight. Overnight lows will dip into the low 50s for the plains
with mid to upper 40s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
rainfall of a 0.10 to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to
strong showers have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.50 to
1.00” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationery, or training of thunderstorms
has the potential to produce 1.00” to 2.00” in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 848 AM Thu September 14, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
COOLER TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
Today a cold front will pass through the Front Range Urban Corridor
bringing fall like temperatures and likely widespread rain. Highs this
afternoon will be stunted, only reaching around 70 degrees for the
plains with mid to upper 60s along the foothills. Cloud coverage will
be scattered to broken this morning and will increase to overcast as
the day progresses. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely today and
tonight, with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms starting in the
early afternoon and will increase in coverage becoming widespread
between 6-7 PM. Chances of severe storms are very unlikely within the
District as temperatures remain cool today, however, elevated
available moisture will bring pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall
which could potentially lead to some localized flooding under stronger
storms. The peak timing for heavy rainfall will be between 4-10pm.
Thunderstorm and heavy rainfall chances will likely dissipate by 9-10
PM with widespread light to moderate showers dominating the area and
continuing through the overnight. Overnight lows will dip into the low
50s for the plains with mid to upper 40s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
0.10-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm
will produce rainfall of 0.40 to 0.80” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong shower/thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.80” to 1.60” in under
60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler Friday, with off and on showers possible through
the morning and possibly into the afternoon. High temperatures will
reach the mid 60s in the afternoon with skies gradually clearing into
the evening. Warmer Saturday as high temperatures reach the mid 70s
under mostly sunny skies. High-pressure builds Sunday bringing high
temperatures back to a more seasonable low 80s with continued sunny
skies throughout the day.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (65%) to 0.8" (35%)
MOD
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
Denver
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (65%) to 0.8" (35%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (65%) to 0.8" (35%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (70%) to 0.8" (40%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (70%) to 0.8" (40%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (70%) to 0.8" (40%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 844 AM Wed September 13, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARMER, SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS
Very little overall change to the weather pattern will keep mostly
sunny and mild conditions to start the day. High temperatures will
reach around 80 degrees this afternoon. Upper-level flow aloft will
remain northwesterly, which will keep a slight chance for a few
showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two, mainly along the foothills
and Palmer Divide. A shower could potentially move into the District
with the best chance for any showers being between 1-8pm. Due to
warmer daytime temperatures and dew points currently in the mid to
upper 40s, at least a LOW chance for Message 1s to be issued, mainly
for a quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes if stronger storms are able to
develop. Skies will clear through the rest of the evening with mild
and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Thursday.
Overnight lows will drop into the low 50s for the plains with mid to
upper 40s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate
shower/thunderstorm will produce rainfall of 0.25" to 0.50” total in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong shower/thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.50” to 1.00” in under
60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: An increase in overall moisture Thursday brings a better
chance for widespread showers/thunderstorms across the District with a
chance for isolated moderate to heavy rainfall for portions of the
District. Initial storm chances will be during the afternoon with
showers picking up into the evening and possibly through the overnight
and into Friday. Cooler Friday will likely help limit storm activity,
with off and on showers possible throughout the day and into the
evening. Once again a few of these showers will have the potential to
produce some moderate to heavy rainfall which could potentially lead
to some localized flooding. Especially if areas become saturated from
the previous day’s storms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months