September 2023 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1244 PM Sun September 3, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued effective until 9pm as there is a threat of heavy rainfall this afternoon and into this evening. A few moderate to strong storms have formed along the foothills and should begin moving into the District over the next hour or so. Multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms will be possible with the last round likely tapering off by 9pm. The largest threat for storms today will be a quick 0.50-0.60” in 10-15 minutes, with a low threat for any rainfall over an inch as most storms move between 10-15mph. These SW to NE storm motions should help limit point rainfall amounts, however, a stronger storm has the potential to produce longer lasting moderate to heavy rainfall. A gust front from a strong storm could result in additional storm development with erratic or slower moving storm motions throughout the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of a 0.05” to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong showers/thunderstorms have the will produce rainfall of 0.25 to 0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationery, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.75” to 1.50” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (85%) to 0.25" (45%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (100%) to 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.05" (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 845 AM Sun September 3, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVE SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS An approaching disturbance from the west will start to make its way through Colorado today leading to a good chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening. High temperature today will reach the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon. Storms likely initiate along the higher terrain by midday and will move out onto the plains between 1-3pm. There is a chance for multiple rounds of storms today with storm chances tapering off by 9pm. A low chance of storms become severe today, mainly for gusty winds and hail up to 1” in diameter, favoring areas east of I-25. Typical storm motions will be SW to NE around 10mph, with some erratic storm motions possible due to storms forming along outflow boundaries. These outflow storms will likely have the biggest threat for moderate to heavy rainfall as they remain stationary at times. A quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes will likely be the main concern, however a stalled-out storm could produce isolated higher amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall of a 0.05” to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms Will produce rainfall of 0.25” to 0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationary, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.75” to 1.50” in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This disturbance starts to move into Wyoming overnight tonight. This will keep storm chances in place for the District tomorrow afternoon and evening, however the threat of heavy rainfall should be minimal at best. Best chance for storms tomorrow will be between 2-7pm with skies clearing out quickly in the evening hours. Conditions start to dry out Tuesday behind a cold front that will drop high temperatures back into the upper 70s to low 80s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.25" (70%) to 0.75" (50%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 848 AM Sat September 2, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AGAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY Very little change to the overall pattern today as southwesterly flow aloft continues, resulting in dry conditions today. A very slight chance for a few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms along the Continental Divide this afternoon and early evening with any precipitation mixing out before moving into the District. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 90s. This evening will continue mild and dry with overnight temperatures dropping into the 60s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure starts to break down tomorrow leading to a good chance for widespread showers/thunderstorms with at least a LOW chance for brief moderate to heavy rainfall within the District. At this time, the largest threat would be a quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes as storm motions between 10-20mph are expected to help limit point rainfall amounts. A couple of rounds of storms will be possible with the first in the afternoon, likely between 1-4pm with another round into the evening between 6-9pm. Skies will gradually clear overnight tomorrow with mild conditions heading into Monday. A slight chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms Monday, however, the threat of heavy rainfall will be minimal at best. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 848 AM Fri September 1, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FOOTHILLS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS South to southwesterly flow aloft will result in generally dry conditions today. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 90s. A slight chance for a few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms along the foothills & Palmer Divide this afternoon and early evening. A very slight chance is that one or two of these showers will move into the metro area, however, with relatively dry conditions most, if not all precipitation will struggle to reach the surface this afternoon and evening. The best chance for any shower activity will be between 4-8pm. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.10” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.60” total in under 60. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot again tomorrow with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s. Another slight chance for a few isolated showers along the foothills in the afternoon and early evening. Once again minimal, if any, rainfall expected inside the District. A better chance for more widespread showers/thunderstorms Sunday with a slight chance for moderate to heavy rainfall within the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 3 months

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hpo-ims September 2023