July 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 902 PM Tue July 16, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. Storms from the afternoon have stabilized the region with any shower activity falling apart along the higher terrain currently. Minimal if any additional showers are expected for the District as skies gradually clear overnight and into tomorrow. Temperatures will drop into the low 60s for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. Once gain there will be very little change to the upper-level dynamics tomorrow, combined with an adequate moisture will result in another chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the District with a slight chance for severe weather, favoring areas east of I-25. Similar timing is expected with storms initiating around midday with a couple of rounds of storms possible into the evening hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected for the rest of the evening. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak shower survives off the Continental Divide and could produce a trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 614 PM Tue July 16, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 10:00 PM Message 1’s will continue to be valid until 10pm as the threat of heavy rainfall remains. After a round of moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms across the District, with skies clearing behind. Another round of showers will be possible later this evening, likely between 8-10pm. Some sunshine and dew points in the 50s will keep the threat for moderate to heavy rainfall into the evening hours, favoring the foothills at this time. Once this final round of showers moves through, a very slight chance for a few lingering showers after 10pm with skies gradually clearing through the overnight. Temperatures overnight will drop into the low to mid 60s for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong stationary thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 143 PM Tue July 16, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10:00 PM Storms have initiated over the District this afternoon and will continue into the evening hours. A few moderate to heavy showers have already impacted areas north with additional storms likely for most areas within the District as storms have increased in coverage towards the west. Storm motions are 15-25 mph from west-northwest to east-southeast, which should limit point rainfall amounts, but storms have been anchoring over specific areas which could result in higher isolated rainfall amounts. The biggest threat will be this afternoon and early evening will be a quick 0.40-0.80” in 10-30 minutes. Storms will continue to impact the region over the next several hours with lingering showers possible into the late evening. Storms also contain some hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Once the initial round of storms moves through the District, storms will dissipate in strength into the later evening with a few scattered showers possible. Skies will gradually clear overnight with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce 0.10-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.40-0.80” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary thunderstorms, or training of thunderstorm cells have the potential to produce up to 1.50” total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 1003 AM Tue July 16, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Scattered to Widespread Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will begin to normalize today as the heatwave slowly breaks down. Anomalously high atmospheric moisture will advect into the High Plains today by an upper-level disturbance from the Pacific Northwest. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.95”. Coupled with an approaching cold front, these conditions will support scattered to widespread thunderstorms across the District capable of producing more meaningful rainfall (when compared to the last few days). Convection initiation will begin around noon across the foothills, with storms moving east onto the plains between 15-25 mph. Rainfall will favor the Foothills and Palmer Divide, with slightly lower rainfall amounts possible across the Plains. Thunderstorm activity is expected to dissipate by the late evening, with skies gradually clearing overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce 0.25”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving, strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing up to 1.25” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Subtropical moisture continues increasing Wednesday to around 150% of normal, while afternoon high temperatures cool another 4-6 degrees following the cold front overnight. Guidance suggests scattered to widespread storms Wednesday may be capable of producing meaningful rainfall across portions of the District tomorrow afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 914 PM Mon July 15, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. A few lingering showers persist over the District at this time. These showers will continue over the next couple of hours before clearing out through the overnight. Temperatures will drop into the low 60s by daybreak tomorrow for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. Minimal change to the upper-level flow tomorrow, combined with an uptick in moisture will result in another chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the District with a slight chance for severe weather. Similar timing is expected with storms initiating around midday along the foothills with multiple rounds of storms possible into the late evening hours for the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace-0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower will produce 0.10-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.20-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 633 PM Mon July 15, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 10:00 PM Message 1’s will continue to be valid until 10pm as the threat of heavy rainfall remains. After a round of moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms for portions of the District, a few lingering showers persist toward the west. These showers will move into the District over the next few hours bringing some additional rainfall. Temperatures have decreased behind the first round of showers, however, dew points have increased into the mid 50s for some areas after some good rainfall. These dew points will result in efficient rain producing showers into the evening with the possibility of a shower or two strengthening into a thunderstorm which will have good potential for moderate to heavy rainfall to continue. Once this final round of showers moves through, a very slight chance for a few lingering showers after 10pm with skies gradually clearing through the overnight. Temperatures overnight will drop into the mid to upper 50s for the plains with low 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong stationary thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.00” total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 335 PM Mon July 15, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL10:00 PM Storms have initiated over the District this afternoon and will continue into the evening hours. A few moderate to heavy showers have already impacted northern portions of the District with additional storms likely for most areas as storms have increased in coverage over the last 20-30 minutes. Initial storm motions were from the west to east around 10mph, however, stronger storms have resulted in several anchored storms which have produced at least 0.30 in around 10 minutes. The biggest threat will be this afternoon and early evening will be a quick 0.50-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. Storms will continue to impact the region over the next several hours with lingering showers possible into the late evening. Storms also contain some hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Once the initial round of storms moves through the District, storms will dissipate in strength into the later evening with a few scattered showers possible. Skies will gradually clear overnight with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 50s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.80” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong stationary thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.25” total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 945 AM Mon July 15, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot with a better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening Very slight relief from the heatwave begins today as afternoon highs lose their chances of breaking triple digits. The ridge has weakened and migrated southeast, placing Colorado and the District at its top and setting up a direct moisture path between here and the Pacific. This path delivers its first moisture uptick today, and increased precipitable water values (0.7-0.8") and forecasted dewpoints in the low/mid 40s indicate that thunderstorms today are much more likely to produce measurable rainfall than the past few days. Convective initiation is expected over the high country just before noon, with storms moving off the foothills and onto the plains between 10-15mph from west to east in the following hour or two. Storms will be isolated/scattered through the afternoon and into the evening, with a slight chance for a few lingering showers into the late evening. Overnight will be mild and dry as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 60s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm may produce 0.80" total of rainfall in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Flow aloft shifts from westerly to northwesterly slowly over the coming days, ushering in cooler air and stronger disturbances for storm initiation. Precipitable water values between 130-150% of normal will be present Tuesday and Wednesday, with forecast model guidance suggesting that Message issuance is likely both days associated with rounds of wetter afternoon thunderstorms in and around the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 950 AM Sun July 14, 2024 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot with scattered, very gusty showers Mid-level water vapor has traversed the outer edge of the ridge over the Four Corners into Colorado today, driving an uptick in thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Once again near triple-digit temperatures are expected today resulting in another Heat Advisory for the District. Slightly elevated moisture will lead storms today to initiate over the high country and be mainly dry, with a lot of downward potential energy for gusty outflows. The best chance for any showers/isolated thunderstorms will be between 1-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through 10pm. Storm motions will be from W/SW to E/NE between 10-20mph. Storms that do spin off the foothills to the plains are unlikely to produce measurable rainfall. However, one or two storms could produce gusty winds and some cloud-to-ground lightning. Mild and dry conditions expected late this evening and through the overnight as temperatures only decrease to around 70 degrees on the plains with mid to upper 60s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms over the foothills today have the potential to produce up to 0.20” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm may be capable of producing 0.50" or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly cooler tomorrow with another chance for high-based afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms. Once again, there is a minimal chance for meaningful precipitation as most rainfall struggles to reach the surface. As the heatwave ends, moisture will begin to stream back into Colorado, and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely to produce appreciable rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. This increase in moisture will likely result in a LOW chance for Messages both days and possibly into Thursday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 957 AM Sat July 13, 2024 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Very hot with isolated showers in southern foothills Relatively stationary high pressure remains over the Four Corners region today, bringing another solid chance for triple digit temperatures across the District. The District will continue to be almost entirely dry, with a slight chance for isolated, high based, gusty showers in the southern foothills in the late afternoon. Storms are unlikely to drift to lower elevations, but those that do will favor Boulder, Jefferson, and Douglas counties. Moisture slowly begins to fill back in to the region over the course of the next few days. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms over the foothills today have the potential to produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm may be capable of producing 0.20" or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar pattern tomorrow with triple digits temperatures and isolated, high-based, gusty storms, mostly contained to the foothills. Moisture slowly returns as the work week arrives, driving increased chances for storms Monday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.01" (10%) to 0.05" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.01" (10%) to 0.05" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.01" (10%) to 0.05" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims July 2024