Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 954 AM Wed July 3, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Hot with isolated afternoon to evening storms.
Mostly sunny morning skies will permit afternoon temperatures to
climb into the 90s today ahead of an approaching disturbance. This
afternoon, an upper-level trough and accompanying cold front will
sweep across the High Plains. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 30s
with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.50”. These conditions
will support chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening, capable of producing light rainfall amounts.
Storm motions will be from west to east around 20 mph. More favorable
conditions for severe weather will be present just east of the
District today. These storms are currently expected to remain east at
this time.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the
potential to produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorm clusters or complexes may be capable
of producing 0.50” or more in 30 minutes or less.
A LOOK AHEAD: Dry conditions emerge Thursday as upper-level ridging
builds across the Great Basin. Afternoon temperatures will reach the
low to mid 80s under clear and sunny skies. Friday will be similar
with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 954 AM Tue July 2, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
Cooler conditions are expected today following yesterday’s cold
front. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 80s followed by
slight chances of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms.
Dewpoints will be in the low 40s with precipitable water (PWAT) values
around 0.70”. Storm motions will be from west to east, around 20-30
mph. Quick storm motions today will help limit point rainfall amounts,
therefore any precipitation is expected to be relatively light.
However, there is still a chance that clustering thunderstorms produce
more meaningful rainfall in the District.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms today
have the potential to produce up to 0.25” in 10-30 minutes. Strong
thunderstorms may produce up to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorm clusters or complexes may be capable
of producing 1.00” or more in 30 minutes or less.
A LOOK AHEAD: Upper-level winds will be westerly tomorrow, supporting
mostly sunny skies with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 90s.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon
and evening with the passage of another cold front.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 933 AM Mon July 1, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Cool and cloudy to start the day with another chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Southwesterly upper-level flow aloft continues to dominate the
region today as a ridge of high-pressure churns of the southern US.
This will keep similar conditions in place over the District with
another chance for isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Once again, most activity will be hit or miss across
the I-25 corridor with some areas likely ending up dry.
Elevated dew points at the surface currently, in the mid 50s to around
60 degrees will keep chances for moderate to heavy rainfall out of any
storms that do develop. A very slight chance of storms become severe
with gusts up to 60mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be between 11am-9pm with a
few lingering showers possible overnight. Storm motions will be from
the W/SW to E/NE between 10-20mph which will likely help limit point
rainfall amounts, although stronger storms could produce outflow
boundaries. These outflow boundaries have the potential to produce
erratic storm motions leading to a better chance of longer lasting
moderate to heavy rainfall. The largest threat will be a quick 0.50”
in 10-30 minutes, however, with these elevated dew points, stationary
storms could produce 0.50-1.25” in under 30 minutes today.
Storm intensities will decrease after sunset with typical off and on
showers possible through the overnight. Overnight temperatures will
dip back into the low 60s for the Metro area with upper 50s along the
foothill regions.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total
in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.25”
total in under 30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will start to dry out at the surface with more
typical dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s in the afternoon. A
slight chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible, although with decreased dew points, high-based storms will
be possible with minimal rainfall expected at this time. Wednesday
will be similar with another chance for high-based afternoon and
evening showers/isolated thunderstorms with minimal precipitation as
most struggle to reach the surface during peak daytime heating. This
will likely result in gusty sprinkles rather than any meaningful
rainfall during the daytime hours with a slightly better chance for
impactful rainfall during the late evening.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.25" (35%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.25" (35%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Broomfield
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Denver
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.25" (35%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Douglas
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
4 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 901 PM Sun June 30, 2024
Forecaster: Aaron O
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10:00 PM as the threat of
heavy rainfall has come to an end.
Several strong thunderstorms have affected areas south of the
District, creating an environment over the District that inhibits any
strong thunderstorms from forming. Some lingering showers persist for
portions of the District at this time and will likely leave in the
hour or two. There will be a slight chance for off and on showers and
possibly a weak thunderstorm or two later this evening.
The best chance for additional showers will be possible through the
overnight hours with on and off showers continuing into the morning.
Overnight temperatures will drop into the low 60s for the plains with
mid to upper 50s along the foothills.
Tomorrow will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning
hours, with precipitation chances ending by the early to mid
afternoon. Rainfall looks to remain light throughout tomorrow.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace to 0.10" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong
shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.25" total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: If a stationary, strong thunderstorm is produced
it will have the potential to have between 0.25-0.50" total in 30-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 930 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
4 months, 1 week