Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 902 AM Sat September 28, 2024
Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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Warmer, Dry, and No End in Sight.
Another day with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s as a high
pressure system continues to remain over the Intermountain West. Dew
points in the upper 30s to low 40s with precipitable water 0.60” to
0.70” should imply possible message level rainfall today, but the
lack of any upper atmospheric motion in combination with the high
pressure system today will completely inhibit any sort of convection
today. Skies will continue to be sunny all day with overnight staying
mostly clear as lows drop into the mid to upper 50s in the plains and
low to mid 50s in the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected within
the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: For the next several days, a high pressure system will
stay over the Intermountain West, keeping The District dry for the
rest of the week. Next chance for precipitation will not be this week
nor next week as fall-like conditions start to creep in for The
District.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 hours, 24 minutes
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 827 AM Fri September 27, 2024
Forecaster: Tim Tonge
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Slightly cooler, dry
After a weak cold front swept through the District overnight,
temperatures will be a 7-10 degrees cooler today after DIA hit a
record 93°F yesterday afternoon. The ridge of high pressure that is
still lingering over the desert southwest has a tiny bit of moisture
trapped under it, and a few isolated showers could form in the
southern high country of Colorado today, but the District will
continue to be dry. Some puffy clouds will meander through the area
throughout the day, and skies will clear overnight while temperatures
drop into the upper 50s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected within
the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: One final push of late season heat will arrive this
weekend, with another solid chance for 90° District-wide on Sunday.
Another warm morning will greet us Monday before a cold front passes
in the mid afternoon, which will set in place fall-like conditions for
the beginning of October. Dry conditions are expected to persist for
the foreseeable future.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 day, 6 hours
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 855 AM Thu September 26, 2024
Forecaster: Tim Tonge
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Hot, partly cloudy
A late September hot spell has set itself in place over Colorado,
thanks to a strong and relatively stationary upper-level ridge. The
ridge's orientation today is ideal for heat transfer into Colorado,
and 90°F is likely for much of the District's lower elevations today.
Some high-level clouds will filter through this afternoon, but that
will be the most interesting weather today outside of the heat. Skies
will stay clear overnight as temperatures drop back into the mid 50s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected within
the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: The ridge's heat will be disrupted Friday/Saturday by a
weak cold front tonight, with afternoon highs being low/mid 80s until
Sunday. Sunday will again threaten to hit 90°, then a cold front
sometime in the afternoon Monday will drop temperatures to more
fall-like conditions for next week. No rainfall is expected for an
extended period in and around the District.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 days, 6 hours
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 831 AM Wed September 25, 2024
Forecaster: Tim Tonge
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warmer, dry and calm
This fall dry spell will continue today. Clear skies will persist as
an upper-level ridge begins to takes its hold over Colorado,
delivering a hot, dry airmass in the process. Afternoon highs will
push into the upper 80s District-wide today, then a cool night that
bottoms out in the mid 50s will follow.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected within
the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be the peak of the ridge's strength, with
an orientation that favors near 90°F afternoon temps that will drop
off overnight as a cold front sweeps through. Friday and Saturday will
be a few degrees cooler before Sunday threatens to break 90°F again.
Chances of rainfall through the beginning of next week are essentially
zero.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 days, 6 hours
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 933 AM Tue September 24, 2024
Forecaster: Tim Tonge
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Calm, dry, nice fall day
Today will provide one last sample of fall weather for the District
before warming back up into the upper 80s tomorrow and Thursday.
Slightly breezy conditions will be present in the southern portions of
the District, but this will be the most interesting weather phenomenon
in the District today as a typical calm fall pattern remains in place.
Skies will stay clear overnight with temperatures in the upper 40s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected within
the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: An unseasonably warm airmass will arrive tomorrow and
Thursday, with decent chances for some regions of the District to
reach 90° Thursday before a cold front swings through Thursday night.
This front will drop temps back into the low 80s heading into the
weekend. No rainfall is anticipated through the extended forecast
period.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
4 days, 5 hours
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 901 AM Mon September 23, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warm, sunny, and dry today.
High-pressure will increase over the Pacific Northwest today
resulting in northwesterly upper-level flow aloft across Colorado.
This northwesterly flow will usher in mild and dry conditions across
the District today. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees this afternoon. Mild and dry conditions remain
through the evening hours with mostly clear skies. Overnight will be
clear as temperatures drop into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees on
the plains with mid 40s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: The high-pressure ridge to the northwest will slowly
move eastward through the week, likely keeping mild and dry conditions
for Colorado. Tomorrow’s temperatures will be slightly warmer, in
the upper 70s to low 80s under sunny skies. Warmer Wednesday as high
temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s with continued sunny skies.
Similar conditions remain in place Thursday with continuing to be mild
and dry as high temperatures reach the low 80s.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 days, 6 hours
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 846 AM Sun September 22, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Cool and cloudy with off and on showers persisting this morning.
The first day of Fall will be cooler behind a disturbance that moved
through the region overnight. Off and on light to briefly moderate
showers will persist during the morning hours, clearing out by midday
today. Any additional shower activity today will be minimal as
rainfall begins to taper off. Skies will gradually clear as this
disturbance continues eastward this afternoon. High temperatures today
will only reach the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Conditions will
start to dry out this evening with mild and dry conditions expected
overnight and into tomorrow. Overnight will be cool as temperatures
drop into the upper 30s to low 40s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower will produce
0.20”-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary moderate shower or training of
moderate to brief heavy showers will have the potential to produce up
to 0.80” in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures bounce back tomorrow, into the mid to upper
70s under mostly sunny skies. Mild and dry conditions are expected
throughout most of the day with a slight chance for showers/isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Most, if
not all shower activity will be limited to the foothills, with a few
showers making their way onto the plains. Currently no heavy rainfall
is expected during this time with just the typical late fall showers
likely before skies gradually clear after sundown.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1200 PM SUN
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 days, 6 hours
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 900 AM Sat September 21, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Cool today with a good chance for afternoon/evening/overnight showers
A cold front moved through the District early this morning which
will effectively help limit high temperatures today. Currently
temperatures are in the mid 50s and will increase to around 70 degrees
this afternoon before clouds increase as a disturbance moves through
the region. This disturbance will bring a good chance for showers this
afternoon, picking up into the evening and lasting through the
overnight and into Sunday.
A slight chance a few thunderstorms develop this afternoon, likely
turning over to just shower activity this evening. Thunderstorm
activity will hinge on the amount of daytime heating today and will
also play a big role in rainfall potential. If thunderstorms are able
to develop this afternoon, the chances for a quick 0.50” in 10-20
minutes will increase significantly. This will result in a LOW chance
for Messages to be issued this afternoon and into the evening hours.
Shower activity becomes more widespread into the evening with some
persistent moderate to brief heavy rainfall possible into the
overnight. These persistent moderate to brief heavy showers will have
the potential to stall over some locations resulting in a slight
chance for up to 1.00” in under 60 minutes, which will also increase
the threat for some isolated Low Impact Flooding this evening.
Shower activity will likely persist overnight as temperatures drop
into the low 40s on the plains with mid to upper 30s along the
foothills. Showers will likely start to taper off by daybreak tomorrow
with skies gradually clearing by midday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
0.05”-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower or
thunderstorm will produce 0.30”-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary moderate shower or training of
moderate to brief heavy showers will have the potential to produce up
to 1.20” in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be even cooler for the first day of Fall
with high temperatures only reaching the mid to upper 50s. Skies will
gradually clear throughout the day with dry conditions expected in the
afternoon and evening. Temperatures bounce back Monday, into the mid
to upper 70s under mostly sunny skies. Mild and dry conditions are
expected throughout most of the day with a chance for showers during
the evening hours. Off and on showers will be possible Tuesday with a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 600 AM SUN
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 600 AM SUN
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 600 AM SUN
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 600 AM SUN
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 600 AM SUN
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 600 AM SUN
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 600 AM SUN
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 500 AM SUN
0.05" (95%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.6" (35%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 500 AM SUN
0.05" (95%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.6" (35%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 500 AM SUN
0.05" (95%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.6" (35%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 908 AM Fri September 20, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warm, mostly sunny, with another dry day today.
Today will once again be mild and dry throughout the day and
evening. A low-pressure system is slowly moving across the desert
southwest today, leading to southwesterly flow aloft across the
region. This southwesterly flow will bring mild and dry conditions for
the District today and this evening. Temperatures are expected to
reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, mostly sunny skies.
Overnight temperatures will drop into the low to mid 50s on the plains
with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler tomorrow as the disturbance moves into the region
bringing a good chance of off and on showers during the day, lasting
into the evening hours, overnight and into Sunday. Storm strength will
hinge on how much daytime heating occurs with high temperatures only
expected to reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. These cooler
temperatures could potentially result in just shower activity with
very little convection during the day decreasing chances for any heavy
rainfall, with a better chance for more persistent rainfall rather
than thunderstorm activity. Some showers could be moderate to briefly
heavy at times with upwards of and inch of total precipitation during
this event. Off and on showers may persist through the day Sunday,
finally tapering off into the afternoon/evening. Sunday will be even
cooler with high temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 50s.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 week, 1 day
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 859 AM Thu September 19, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Another warm, sunny, and dry today.
Westerly flow aloft will continue to usher in mild and dry
conditions across the District today and this evening. Temperatures
are expected to reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon under mostly
sunny skies. Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid 50s on the
plains with upper 40s to low 50s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly warmer tomorrow as high temperatures reach the
mid to upper 80s. Mild and dry conditions are likely to continue
throughout the day and evening. Cooler Saturday with a good chance of
off and on showers during the day, lasting into the evening hours.
Storm strength will hinge on how much daytime heating occurs with high
temperatures only expected to reach the upper 60s to around 70
degrees. These cooler temperatures could potentially result in just
shower activity with very little convection during the day decreasing
chances for any moderate to heavy rainfall, with a better chance for
more persistent rainfall rather than thunderstorm activity.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 week, 2 days