September 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 306 PM Wed September 4, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10:00 PM A second wave of storms have started to initiate along the foothills and will start moving into the District over the next hour. Temperatures today reached the low 80s, combined with dew points in the low to mid 40s, storms today could potentially produce light to moderate rainfall. Storm motions will be from west-southwest to east-northeast, generally between 15-20 mph with some possible erratic storm movement possibly along outflow boundaries. One main round of showers and thunderstorms with light to moderate rainfall is expected today, with weaker and isolated storms possible by sundown and into the night. A slight chance for a few overnight showers/thunderstorms as temperatures drop into the low 60s on the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between a 0.25-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or thunderstorm clusters, have the potential to produce up to 1.25” 60 minutes or less. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.25" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1002 AM Wed September 4, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cooler Temperatures with Thunderstorms today and tonight An upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will sweep across the region today, bringing cooler temperatures and a more active pattern today and tomorrow. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s, with dewpoints around 50°F and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.85”. Storm motions will be from west to east around 20-25 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will improve gradually throughout the day as the front approaches. Storms will likely continue this evening with lingering isolated showers possible overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between a 0.25-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or thunderstorm clusters, have the potential to produce up to 1.50” 60 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: A few isolated showers may linger across the District tomorrow morning. Currently, precipitation tomorrow morning should remain relatively light and is not expected to pose any flooding risks. Chances for storms will gradually decline throughout the day tomorrow as the system moves east. Skies will clear overnight. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 917 AM Tue September 3, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Mostly Sunny with Isolated Showers this Afternoon Today will be warm with temperatures reaching the low to mid-90s. This afternoon, there is a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. With dew points in the mid 30s, mostly virga is expected with perhaps a few sprinkles possible. Skies will gradually clear overnight with low temperatures around 60°F. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between a trace to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm develops over the foothills and produces 0.20” in 30-60 minutes A LOOK AHEAD: On Wednesday, a cold front will sweep across the region, bringing cooler temperatures in the 80s. There is a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms capable of producing more meaningful precipitation across the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 853 AM Mon September 2, 2024 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Breezy and almost entirely dry for Labor Day As mentioned yesterday, the slow degradation of the ridge over Colorado has begun, and will take place for the next 36 hours or so as a trough approaches from the Pacific Northwest. The effects from the high pressure circulation will remain in place today, suppressing almost all convection east of the Continental Divide. Some moisture has begun to pool west of the Divide, and will increase as the day goes on, so the mountains will likely see some isolated showers throughout the day. One or two showers have a small chance of pushing over the Divide under westerly upper-level flow that develops late afternoon, but will likely sputter out as they move into the dry air present in the foothills and urban corridor, releasing minimal rain and gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, Labor Day will arrive in the District with mostly clear skies, afternoon highs around 90, and breezy winds that will pick up and become quite gusty as the afternoon becomes the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A stray shower or two in the foothills will produce Trace-0.10" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A similar day tomorrow with slightly increased surface moisture but minimal forcing that will keep storm chances minimal and message issuance potential at a NONE. Wednesday, the trough will arrive from the west, delivering a cold front that will drop temperatures and support scattered/widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some residual moisture will bring another isolated chance of storms Thursday before conditions dry out again by the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 921 AM Sun September 1, 2024 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warm and dry again across District Wash, rinse, and repeat! Another lovely dry day is in store for the District today, and Labor Day weekend plans will go off without a hitch. The high-pressure ridge has centered itself over Larimer and Weld counties in northern Colorado, where it will remain for the day. This ridge is exceptionally dry, and afternoon dewpoints will be in the low 30s while the ridge's general sinking motion will suppress all convection today. The strengthening of an upper-level low over northern Mexico will force the development of stronger winds this afternoon and evening, but otherwise the skies will be mostly cloud-free through the afternoon, evening, and overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected within the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: The ridge will start to break down tomorrow, and moisture will increase west of the Continental Divide as a result. A stray shower or two late tomorrow afternoon may squeak across the Divide, but any rainfall near the District is still expected to be zero. An approaching trough will allow more moisture to arrive, increasing storm odds slightly for Tuesday. The trough will arrive Wednesday, delivering a cold front in the evening and an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 months, 3 weeks

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