Time: 903 AM Sat September 14, 2024
Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien
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Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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Dry, Warm, and Calmer Conditions for The District Today
Similar conditions as yesterday with weak zonal flow in the upper
atmosphere, which will continue to inhibit any sort of convection
today with weak downsloping drying out what little moisture is left.
Precipitable water values continue to lower with 0.35”-0.40”, with
no rainfall expected. Winds today will likely remain below 10 mph with
no gusty conditions and yesterday’s haze has moved out of the State
of Colorado. Overall conditions will be warm, dry, and overall
pleasant.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected within
the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: Moisture conditions and afternoon temperatures will
remain relatively the same for tomorrow with PWAT values remaining
around 0.40”, which will likely limit most convection. A possible
weak short wave could move through The District, depending on how
south and east the Jet Stream will dig into the Desert Southwest. This
will create a SSW to NNE storm motion, which can inhibit some moisture
due to downsloping off the Palmer Divide and partly the Front Range,
but convection will entirely depend on the positioning of the Jet
Stream. If this short wave does reach The District, any convection
will likely not produce much due to the low moisture content and
downsloping. Monday’s chances for precipitation increases as this
low pressure system associated with the digging Jet Stream introduces
more moisture into The District, but by Tuesday and Wednesday, zonal
flow returns and decreases the precipitation chances significantly.
This zonal pattern is likely to continue through the rest of the week
and into the beginning of the weekend.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[
http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]