Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 940 AM Mon July 18, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - Flow aloft will be westerly throughout the day, creating conditions for isolated showers across the District. Very hot, record-breaking conditions are expected today. Temperatures will climb to triple digits across much of the District with dew points in the mid to upper 40's. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will produce minimal precipitation, with a very low chance for moderate to heavy rainfall. - Storms will begin developing over the foothills before 2pm and are expected to move east-northeast across the District. Prime time for storms today is from 2pm to 8pm. Typical thunderstorms will produce light to briefly moderate rainfall, mostly favoring areas in and around the foothills. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Thursday. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchoring thunderstorms will have the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot conditions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this week as a heat dome remains parked over the four-corners region. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as high temperatures remain in the 90's with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]