Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 143 PM Tue July 16, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10:00 PM Storms have initiated over the District this afternoon and will continue into the evening hours. A few moderate to heavy showers have already impacted areas north with additional storms likely for most areas within the District as storms have increased in coverage towards the west. Storm motions are 15-25 mph from west-northwest to east-southeast, which should limit point rainfall amounts, but storms have been anchoring over specific areas which could result in higher isolated rainfall amounts. The biggest threat will be this afternoon and early evening will be a quick 0.40-0.80” in 10-30 minutes. Storms will continue to impact the region over the next several hours with lingering showers possible into the late evening. Storms also contain some hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Once the initial round of storms moves through the District, storms will dissipate in strength into the later evening with a few scattered showers possible. Skies will gradually clear overnight with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce 0.10-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.40-0.80” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary thunderstorms, or training of thunderstorm cells have the potential to produce up to 1.50” total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]