Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 1036 AM Sat June 3, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 11:59pm this evening. Off and on showers have been impacting most parts of the District this morning and will continue before rainfall picks up into the afternoon. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected across the District, not only today, but likely over the next few days as an atypical pattern has emerged over the region. This pattern will result in storm motions to be nearly stationary at times, with waves of moderate to heavy rainfall resulting in a chance for over 1” of rainfall in under 60 minutes in some areas. Storm will generally move in from the east to west, with a good likelihood of showers both anchoring in place and training of moderate to heavy showers. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out today, most likely in the afternoon hours if there is enough daytime heating. These shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue through the evening and possibly overnight and into Sunday. Sunday’s pattern doesn’t change with another good chance for rain showers throughout the day and with today’s rainfall, there will be higher chances for flooding throughout the day and into the evening hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate showers will produce 0.2-0.6” of rain in 30-60 minutes. Strong showers and weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.6-1.2” in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong shower, training of moderate to heavy showers or weak to moderate thunderstorm may result in up to 2.4” of rain in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.2" (40%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (40%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (40%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]