Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 718 PM Sun July 3, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES CONTINUE VALIDUNTIL 9:30 PM - Message 1's will continue valid until 9:30 PM. The gust front/outflow boundary from storms over Larimer and Weld Counties has moved southward through the District but did not initiate strong thunderstorms within District boundaries. The strongest storms remained just N of the District over Boulder County. - As the outflow boundary from northern CO storms moved southward through the District it helped to keep shower activity active but did not generate strong storms. Now that this boundary has passed through Douglas County the threat for heavy rainfall is quickly diminishing as temperatures are cooling and the triggering mechanism for stronger storms is now well south of the area. - Additional light rain showers and weak thunderstorms will continue possible over the next 1-2 hours. The threat for moderate to strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall is lowering rapidly now that temperatures are backing off but an isolated moderate to strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of rain in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (70%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Boulder Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Denver Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Douglas Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Douglas Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SUN Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]