Time: 154 PM Tue July 4, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 11pm this evening. A few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms have moved through the District today. Additional rounds of storms will be possible into the late evening with storm intensities likely increasing through the night as the upper-level disturbance moves overhead. The best chance for storms will be from now, through 11pm, with a slight chance Messages will need to be extended if strong storms continue into the overnight. Storm motions will be relatively brisk from west to east between 10-20mph, which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, there is a good chance additional storms will develop along the outflow boundaries. These outflow storms will have the highest potential for heavy rainfall. Storm may also become severe today, with large hail, strong winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce 0.50-1.00” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 1.00-1.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong stationary storm, or training of moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce up to 2.5” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]