Time: 959 AM Mon May 15, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED Ridge building across the Desert Southwest will support a warming trend and scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over the coming days. Today will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60s, dew points in the mid to upper 40s, with rain showers gradually moving across the area throughout the day. Light to briefly moderate rain showers are expected late this morning through the early evening hours. Storm motions will generally be from the west-northwest with the best time for showers between 4PM and 8PM. Despite somewhat favorable dewpoints along with PWAT values around 0.70in, westerly upper-level flow will stifle developing storms as they descend higher terrain onto the plains. Skies will clear overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.10” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.10”-0.25” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored rain shower/isolated thunderstorm, or training of rain showers, has the potential to produce 0.25”-0.75” in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The springtime thunderstorm pattern remains in place with warmer temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms persisting. Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar, with mostly sunny morning skies followed by a round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid 70s to low 80s. Looking ahead, A cold front will sweep across the Front Range Urban Corridor early Thursday, followed by overcast skies, stratified rain showers, and highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) LOW Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) LOW Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]