Time: 208 PM Wed July 27, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 11:59pm this evening. A slight chance rain showers/isolated thunderstorms persist past midnight tonight resulting in an extension of Message 1's. - Very similar conditions in place as yesterday with dew points currently in the mid 50's to low 60's. A convergence line just SE of the District has already starting initiating rapid storm development and is expected to continue to pulse up through the afternoon. Additional storms are starting to develop west of the District and are expected to start moving through over the couple of hours. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible today with the best chance for heavy rain between 3pm and 11pm at this time. - Storm motions will generally be from the W/NW to E/SE between 5-10mph, with some erratic storm movement likely off outflow boundaries as storms strengthen through the evening. After 11pm the stronger storms are expected to have moved well east of the District, however a slight chance will remain for a late evening/overnight round of rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall possible through the early morning hours Thursday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.5" of rainfall. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm anchored off an outflow boundary has the potential to produce up to 2.6" of heavy rainfall in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]