Time: 958 AM Sat July 6, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
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Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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Hot with isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.
Warm downsloping winds throughout the day today will hinder
significant thunderstorm development. Air descending the mountains
will reach the low 90s as it arrives across the District, accompanied
by wind gusts of 20-25mph. A shortwave disturbance currently over
southwestern Montana will traverse Wyoming as the morning goes on
before arriving in Colorado and sparking a round of isolated, gusty,
mostly dry thunderstorms later this afternoon. Dewpoints will be in
the upper 20s to low 30s with precipitable water (PWAT) values around
0.55”. These parameters will support isolated dry thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening, largely capable of producing virga
and perhaps a few sprinkles.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the
potential to produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing
0.20” or more in 30 minutes or less.
A LOOK AHEAD: A strong cold front approaching from the north will
arrive in between midnight tonight and sunrise Sunday, bringing with
it a chance of scattered, light morning showers that favor the
northeastern plains of Colorado. Behind this cold front, afternoon
highs 15-20°F cooler than today will arrive. Post-frontal upslope
flow throughout the morning will drive development of widespread
thunderstorms that initiate around lunchtime and linger into the late
evening. Warmer temperatures return Monday, as well as a round of
afternoon thunderstorms that, as of now, more heavily favors regions
along and south of the Palmer Divide, with Denver impacts appearing
minimal. Tuesday warms even further, with a disturbance expected to
initiate a round of thunderstorms drier and gustier than those of
Sunday and Monday. The warming trend continues as the week goes on,
with a heat wave expected to develop as the end of the work week
approaches.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[
http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]