Time: 849 AM Tue August 9, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
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Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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WARMER TODAY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT
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High-pressure will start to build over the region today leading to
mostly sunny skies early as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to
low 90's this afternoon. This high-pressure will also usher in drier
mid to upper-level air throughout the day effectively decreasing
storms chances this afternoon.
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However, dew points remain elevated this morning in the mid 50's to
low 60's which are expected to mix out by midday with dew points
expected to drop into the 40's by this afternoon. Similar to
yesterday, a weak, yet persistent convergence line is starting to set
up to the south and east of the District, which will result in a
slight chance for storms to develop along this line bringing very
pulse like storms that could produce moderate to brief heavy rain. At
this time, these storms are not expected to impact the District,
although, a gust front from stronger storms outside of the District
has the potential to trigger additional storms on the eastern and
southern fringes of the District this afternoon.
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Drier air settles over the District this evening and overnight as
high-pressure builds. Overnight lows expected in the low to mid 60's
with mild conditions into daybreak Wednesday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Outflow from thunderstorms outside the District
pushes additional moisture into the area and provides a triggering
mechanism for strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce
rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: The 90's stick around into the weekend as high-pressure
holds over the District. Mostly sunny and dry tomorrow with a very
slight chance for a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms along the
higher terrain. Even warmer Thursday with continued dry conditions. A
slight chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Friday
with minimal rainfall expected as most storms remain high-based
resulting in a better chance for gusty winds rather than rainfall.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
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Adams
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
Broomfield
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
Denver
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
Douglas
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
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Boulder
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[
http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]