Time: 351 PM Thu July 28, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S & 2'S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 10:00 PM - Message 2's for Boulder, Broomfield and Jefferson Counties will continue valid until 10:00pm. Message 1's for the remainder of the District will also continue valid until 10:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall remains. - Initial storm development has held off as sufficient cloud cover helped limit daytime heating today. Models are still indicating a decent chance for a round or two of rain showers this evening. The best chance for storms looks to be from 5pm, through 8pm with scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible between 8-11pm before rainfall chances taper off through the overnight. - Storms that do develop will be efficient rainfall producers very capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Storms will be relatively slow moving from NW to SE between 10-15mph, with a chance some storms may anchor in place leading to an increase chance for isolated long lasting moderate to heavy rainfall, especially along the foothills this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 1.0-2.0 in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or training of moderate to strong thunderstorms may result in rainfall rates up to 3.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Boulder County 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (75%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (75%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (75%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]