May 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 937 AM Mon May 23, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CONTINUED COOL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DAYTIME/ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OVERNIGHT - Trough of low pressure continues to be draped across the state of Colorado keeping our weather pattern relatively active today and tomorrow. Temperatures will continue to run below seasonal averages with highs this afternoon reaching the low to mid 60's over the plains with 40's and 50's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 74 degrees. - Light rain showers are currently impacting portions of Boulder County this morning and these showers are expected to weaken as they move southward but there will be a modest chance for a few rain showers through noon over the District. This afternoon a few additional rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop but best chances will remain S and E of the District. Overall there will be a modest chance for precipitation District wide today but amounts look to remain minimal. - Overnight a low pressure system will pass to the S and rain shower activity is expected to push northward with best chances for meaningful rain remaining S of I-70. Lesser chances for rainfall overnight over the northern areas of the District. Foothill locations will be cold enough to support "wet" snow overnight, mainly above 8,000ft with minor accumulations of less than 1". STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.10" in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm is able to develop with potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Likely cloudy and cool with some light rain shower activity over parts of the District early Tuesday morning. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be cooler than today, possibly having trouble making it out of the 50's over the plains due to thicker cloud cover. Best chances for showers Tuesday afternoon and evening will favor southern areas of the District with conditions drying out Tuesday evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (85%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (85%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (85%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (90%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (85%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (85%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 904 AM Sun May 22, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- REMAINING UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING - Trough of low pressure remain in place over the state keeping the weather a little unsettled today over the District. Temperatures in the 40's over the plains currently will warm into the 50's to lower 60's this afternoon with readings 10-15 degrees cooler in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 74 degrees. Conditions will be generally dry this morning outside a few isolated mix/snow showers over far S Jefferson and Douglas Counties. - Rain showers and possibly weak thunderstorms will begin to develop over the foothills and Palmer Divide between noon-2pm. Chances will increase for shower coverage over the plains after 2pm. There will then be isolated to widely scattered rain showers and weak thunderstorms possible into the evening. With the cooler temperatures precipitation will likely favor general rain with any thunderstorms being weak but capable of small hail with the low freezing levels. - Best chances for precipitation will be through about 10pm but a few lingering rain showers may persist overnight with some wet snow for the foothills, mainly above 8,000ft. Tonight temperatures will drop into the mid 30s to around 40 over the plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain in 30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will tack on a few degrees to afternoon highs on Monday with readings in the 60's most areas over the plains. Monday morning will trend generally dry but by noon showers and weak thunderstorms will become likely. A modest chance for showers/weak thunderstorms will continue into Monday evening with additional rain showers expected overnight with some snow possible in the foothills (mainly above 8,000ft). LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (35%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (35%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (35%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (35%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1001 AM Sat May 21, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY WITH CONDITONS LIKELY DRYING OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY - After a powerful winter storm moved through the region yesterday and through the overnight temperatures today will remain well below average with highs in the low to mid 40's this afternoon. Skies have gradually started to clear this morning with some sunshine starting to peak through. Partly cloudy skies are expected to continue throughout the day. - A few scattered snow showers remain in the high country and could produce a few short lived light mix/snow showers along the foothills this afternoon, however minimal precipitation is expected in the District. Best chance for any precipitation activity will be from now until 5pm this afternoon with conditions drying out through the evening and into Sunday. - Overnight lows will dip into the upper 20's to low 30's on the plains with mid to upper 20's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light to moderate mix/snow showers along the foothills or melted snow equivalent will produce precipitation rates of TR-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: If a moderate rain/mix shower is able to persist off the foothills and into the District there would be the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" of rainfall in one hour. A LOOK AHEAD: Sunday starts to warm up as high temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 50's in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. A slight chance for afternoon and evening rain showers with a very slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm, mainly along the foothills or Palmer Divide. Similar conditions in place For the beginning of next week with afternoon storm chances both Monday and Tuesday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 724 AM Fri May 20, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY/WET SNOW - Powerful spring storm system will impact the District today and tonight into the day on Saturday. Currently temperatures are in the mid to upper 30's and will flat line through the day. Light to moderate rain showers or a mix of rain snow will continue through the morning with a secondary cold front moving through this afternoon lowering temperatures and changing any rain over to snow over the plains between 2-5pm. Precipitation will fall as snow in the foothills above 6,500-7,000ft through the day with snow starting to pile up over the higher terrain. - Once rain changes over to all snow later this afternoon over the plains the snow intensity is expected to increase into the evening. Snow will fall moderate to heavy at times tonight into Saturday morning. Snowfall rates over the foothills and Palmer Divide may reach the 1-3"/hr range at times under stronger snow bands. Prime time for heavy snow is from roughly 6pm this evening until 10am Saturday. Snow showers will begin to decrease in intensity later Saturday morning with conditions slowly drying out in the afternoon. - Total precipitation in the form of rain and melted snow from this morning into midday Saturday is expected to range from 1.0-1.5" of moisture with isolated higher and lower amounts. Snowfall accumulations from later today into Saturday will likely vary from 2-6" between 5,000-6,000ft and 5-10" between 6,000-7,000ft and 10-20" or more between 7,000-9,000ft. Isolated higher amounts possible each zone. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light to moderate rain showers or melted snow equivalent will produce precipitation rates of 0.1-0.4" per hour. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Heavy wet snow combined with leafed out trees likely results in a "branch breaking" snowfall for many areas within the District. A LOOK AHEAD: Widespread snowfall over the District Saturday morning will be heaviest over the foothills and Palmer Divide. Snow showers will decrease as the day wears on with most of the precipitation occurring before noon. Isolated to widely scattered rain/mix/snow showers continue possible Saturday afternoon with conditions drying out in the evening. Highs on Saturday only in the 30's to lower 40's over the plains with a hard freeze likely overnight into Sunday morning. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Denver Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 940 AM Thu May 19, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, DRY AND WINDY AHEAD OF A "BRANCH BREAKING" SNOW STORM - Conditions will be warm, dry and windy today ahead of a potent late season spring storm system that will move into the District after midnight tonight into Friday morning. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the upper 80s to around 90 over the plains. Winds will be increasing from the W into the 10-25mph range with gusts to 35-40mph or more possible. Conditions will remain dry through the day and much of the overnight period. - This evening a cold front will move through and turn winds to the N with rapidly cooling temperatures. The main storm system will begin to move southward overnight with snow developing in the northern mountains after midnight and rain/mix/snow showers starting to fill in from N to S over the plains by around daybreak Friday. Rain, mix and snow pending elevation will then fill in through Friday morning. By noon Friday scattered to widespread rain/mix/snow showers are expected to have filled in over the entire District. - A secondary front will move through early Friday afternoon and will change any mix/rain over to snow along the I-25 corridor. Precipitation is then expected to favor snow for the duration of the event. Snow will intensify Friday afternoon with periods of moderate and heavy snow overnight into Saturday morning. Snowfall rates of 1-3"/hr are likely at times overnight Friday into Saturday morning over the foothills. By noon Saturday the majority of the precipitation from this system will have occurred and conditions will begin to dry out into Saturday afternoon. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today and the majority of tonight. Rain and snow pending elevation will fill in Friday morning with precipitation rates (rain/melted snow) of a 0.1-0.4" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Total precipitation from Friday morning through midday Saturday in the form of rain and melted snow is expected to range from 1.0-2.0" over the District. Snowfall amounts will be highly variable and favor locations above 6,000ft but preliminary estimates look to be in the 4-8" range between 5,000-6,000ft and 6-12" between 6,000-7,000ft and 10-24" or more above 7,000' in the foothills of Boulder and Jefferson Counties. The heavy, "wet" late season snow has all the tell tale signs of being a branch breaking event for the Front Range. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 938 AM Wed May 18, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT WITH HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON/EVE RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Today, high pressure continues with temperatures reaching the upper 70's to low 80's, dew points in the upper 30's, under partly cloudy skies. A slight chance for high-based rain showers and isolated thunderstorms expected this afternoon through the early evening. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will roll off the foothills and Palmer Divide between 12-1pm with the best chance for rain shower activity through 6pm. Precipitation will be light with some lighting and gusty wind possible. Showers are expected to move east-southeast between 5-15mph. - Skies are expected to clear by 9pm tonight. Overnight lows will reach the mid 50's with dew points in the upper 30's. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms with the potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A dramatic shift in the Jetstream will create a wild weather pattern across the Front Range Urban Corridor over the next several days as a cold front and associated storms system move through the area on Friday. Tomorrow will be hot, dry, and gusty with highs reaching the upper 80's to around 90 degrees ahead of a cold front tomorrow night. Scattered rain showers will begin overnight following the frontal passage, becoming widespread by Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will reach the upper 40's to low 50's. Rain is expected to change to snow later afternoon or early evening. Overnight temperatures will fall into the low 30's. Snow will mostly be limited to grassy areas and branches, with very little accumulation on pavement. There is a potential for slushy accumulations if snow rates exceed 1" but is expected to melt quickly. Heavy wet snow may compromise gardens and break greening tree branches. Models place heaviest snowfall across higher elevations of the foothills and Palmer Divide. Snow will continue through Saturday morning, ending by midday. Highs will reach the upper 40's, with clearing skies later day or overnight. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 913 AM Tue May 17, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON/EVE RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Another well above average temperature day with highs well into the 80's on the plains with mid to upper 70's along the foothills this afternoon. Best chance for rain shower/isolated thunderstorm activity today will be from noon until 8pm with a few lingering rain showers possible through the evening and into the overnight with minimal precipitation expected. - With high temperatures in the 80's with dew points dropping to the low 30's this afternoon will result in a couple of rounds of high-based rain showers with minimal precipitation expected as most rainfall will struggle to reach the surface. However, if moisture does increase at the surface this afternoon, a few stronger storms have the potential to develop this evening bringing isolated moderate to heavy rainfall. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out also, favoring the foothills and areas northward towards the Colorado/WY border through the afternoon and evening at this time. - Rainfall chances for the District taper off after midnight as overnight lows drop into low to mid 50's on the plains, with mid to upper 40's along the foothills. Mild and dry conditions are expected through daybreak Wednesday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An increase in surface moisture has the potential to produce moderate to strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms with the potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.2" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An uptick in moisture Wednesday will result in a better chance for widespread afternoon/eve rain/thunderstorms with a low chance at this time for a heavy rainfall threat. A break in the pattern Thursday with mostly dry conditions throughout the day, with a chance for late evening rain showers with off and on rain showers through the day Friday with a chance for rain/mix and possibly some snow Friday evening and into Saturday morning. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 856 AM Mon May 16, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - After several dry days, a change in the weather pattern this week will bring rain chances across the District. Mild and dry to start the day today with high temperatures expected in the low to mid 80's on the plains with low to mid 70's along the foothills. Best chance for rain shower activity today will be from noon until 6pm with skies gradually clearing this evening and through the overnight. - Above average temperatures this afternoon, combined with dew points in the low to mid 30's will result in high-based rain showers with minimal precipitation expected as most rainfall will struggle to reach the surface. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out, favoring the foothills and along the Palmer Divide which could also produce a few lightning strikes along with a slightly better chance for impactful rainfall. - Rainfall chances taper off after 6pm as overnight lows drop into low to mid 50's on the plains, with mid to upper 40's along the foothills. Mild and dry conditions are expected through daybreak Tuesday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm is able to develop, or training of thunderstorms with the potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.6" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions in place for Tuesday with another chance for high-based afternoon rain/isolated thunderstorms with minimal rainfall expected at this time. An uptick in moisture Wednesday will result in a better chance for widespread afternoon/eve rain/thunderstorms with a low chance at this time for a heavy rainfall threat. A break in the pattern Thursday with mostly dry conditions throughout the day, with a chance for late evening rain showers with off and on rain showers through the day Friday with a chance for rain/mix and possibly some snow Friday evening and into Saturday morning. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 859 AM Sun May 15, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER WARM, SUNNY, AND DRY DAY TODAY - High-pressure starts to build today leading to another day with temperatures well above the seasonal low 70's with highs this afternoon reaching the upper 70's to low 80's on the plains with low to mid 70's along the foothills. Mostly sunny skies to start the day with clouds increasing this afternoon. - Winds will be mild and variable across the District this morning and will pick up slightly this morning from the NE at 10-15mph gusting to 20mph at times with winds decreasing after sunset. Winds will be strongest this afternoon, from noon-6pm favoring the eastern portions of the District and will weaken into this evening, becoming light and variable through the overnight. - A few high-based rain showers will be possible along the Palmer Divide this afternoon and early evening. However, most precipitation will struggle to reach the surface, with no precipitation expected within the District boundaries. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40's to low 50's across the District, along with mild conditions into Monday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Monday will start off mild and dry with mostly sunny skies as high temperatures increase well into the 80's along the plains. A very slight chance for scattered high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening, with minimal precipitation expected at this time as most rain showers evaporate before reaching the surface. Similar conditions Tuesday with another chance for scattered high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. An uptick in moisture Wednesday will bring a better chance for some impactful rain showers with likely a low chance for a heavy rainfall threat at this time. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 855 AM Sat May 14, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH BREEZY CONDITONS IN THE AFTERNOON - Another day with temperatures well above the seasonal 70Â°F with highs this afternoon reaching the upper 70's to low 80's on the plains with around 70Â°F along the foothills. Conditions will be dry state wide under sunny to mostly sunny skies throughout the day today. - Winds will be mild this morning and will pick up Slightly this afternoon from the W/NW at 10-15mph gusting to 20-25mph at times. Winds will be strongest this afternoon, between 1-6pm over the foothills and Palmer Divide and will weaken into this evening, becoming light and variable through the overnight. - Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40's to low 50's across the District, along with mild conditions into Sunday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be slightly cooler with highs topping out around 80Â°F across the District in the afternoon. Winds will shift to the NE throughout most of the day with gusts up to 15mph along with dry conditions under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. A shift in the weather pattern heading into next week with afternoon and evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorm chances possible Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. With minimal moisture available Monday and Tuesday, there will be little to no threat for heavy rain. An uptick in moisture into the region Wednesday could bring a low to moderate chance for isolated heavy rainfall in the afternoon/evening. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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