Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 856 AM Tue May 3, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
DRY TODAY WITH HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN/ISO THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
-
An isolated foggy start to the day today with partly cloudy skies as
high temperatures reach the low to mid 60's this afternoon. A
disturbance will move into the region late this afternoon bringing a
chance for scattered high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms,
with a better chance for rain showers this evening and through the
overnight and into Wednesday morning.
-
Minimal precipitation is expected during the afternoon as high-based
rain showers will mainly produce gusty winds with most precipitation
struggling to reach the surface. An uptick in upper-level moisture
this evening will bring a better chance for rain showers late with
scattered off and on rain showers possible through the overnight and
into Wednesday morning. With decent upper-level support through the
overnight, can't completely rule out a few storms could strengthen
enough to produce some lightning and bring some moderate rainfall to
brief isolated heavy rainfall, although chances remain very low at
this time.
-
Best chance for high-based rain/isolated thunderstorms will be from
3-8pm with off and on rain showers likely from 8pm through the
overnight and into daybreak Wednesday. A better chance for meaningful
rainfall after 8pm, however storm intensity will also decrease at this
time as thunderstorm activity diminishes significantly after 8pm.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30's, resulting in a
slight chance for mix/snow for higher elevations through the overnight
and into daybreak Wednesday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30
minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to
produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the
potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.8" in 30-60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This unsettled weather pattern remains over the region
Wednesday bringing a continued chance for off and on rain showers
throughout the day. Cooler daytime temperatures will help limit
rainfall intensity throughout the day Wednesday with another chance
for overnight precipitation and into early Thursday morning. A few
lingering rain showers will be possible Thursday morning with
conditions drying out throughout the day as high temperatures reach
the low to mid 60's.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
400 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Broomfield
400 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Denver
400 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 AM WED
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 856 AM Mon May 2, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
COOLER TODAY WITH A FEW LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS, DRY
AFTERNOON/EVE
-
Much needed overnight rain showers and thunderstorms impacted
portions of the District bringing over an isolated inch of rain for
areas around Aurora. A few lingering light rain/mix showers persist
currently and will slowly taper off towards the eastern plains through
the rest of the morning.
-
Currently temperatures in the mid to upper 30's across the District
as high temperatures reach the upper 40's to low 50's this afternoon.
Northerly winds this morning around 10mph will slowly decrease and
turn northeasterly to east through this evening.
-
Skies will gradually start to clear this afternoon with dry
conditions expected this afternoon and evening, through the overnight
and into Tuesday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Lingering rain showers will
produce a trace to 0.10" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain
shower will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3"
in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An isolated thunderstorm is able to develop with
the potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in
45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday will start off fairly mild before another
disturbance moves into the region bringing a good chance for rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the District Tuesday afternoon
and evening with rain showers likely through the overnight and into
Wednesday. Due to timing and an increase in upper-level moisture
heading into Tuesday afternoon, a low chance for heavy rain tomorrow
will be possible at this time. Cooler daytime temperatures during the
day Wednesday will limit storm potential, although expected a chance
for off and on rain showers throughout the day Wednesday and into
Wednesday evening, along with a slight chance for isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening Wednesday.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 AM MON
Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 952 AM Sun May 1, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MHFD 2022 SEASON BEGINS/RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
DISTRICT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
-
After the 3rd driest April on record for the Denver Metro area the
month of May will usher in a more active weather pattern. Conditions
will be dry and a little breezy during the day today ahead of a storm
system that will move into NE CO late this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will climb into the 60's to around 70 for highs over the
plains with 50's and 60's in the Front Range foothills.
-
The first rain showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with
the incoming low pressure system will become possible over the
foothills between noon-2pm. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
then expected to initiate over the plains between 2-4pm. 2-3 rounds of
showers and weak to moderate thunderstorms are then expected to move
through the District during the evening and overnight persisting into
daybreak on Monday. The snow line will lower overnight and the higher
foothills above 7,000ft and in particular above 8,000ft will likely
experience some late season snowfall overnight into Monday morning.
-
The thunderstorm activity expected to develop this afternoon and
evening will generally feature weak to moderate thunderstorms with
stronger storms possible E of the I-25 corridor, most likely remaining
just to the N and E of the District. If a stronger storm does develop
further west of I-25 a brief period of heavy rainfall cannot be ruled
out resulting in a LOW Message potential. Stronger storms will also
feature gusty winds and hail. Prime time for thunderstorm activity is
from 3pm to midnight with mainly rain showers after midnight but a
weaker thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorms will be
relatively fast moving from SW to NE at 20-25mph helping to lower
point rainfall amounts.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Weak to moderate
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms are able to develop further
west than expected with the potential for moderate to brief heavy
rainfall of 0.4-1.2" in 15-45 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Lingering rain showers Monday morning expected to exit
the area before noon. Monday afternoon is looking generally dry but a
stray rain shower or weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out producing
light to briefly moderate rainfall(no flood threat). Highs Monday only
in the 40's to around 50 over the plains. Another system will move
into the area on Tuesday with thunderstorms possible during the
afternoon and rain showers overnight into the day on Wednesday. More
snow can be expected for the higher terrain, mainly above 8,000ft.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
300 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%)
LOW
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%)
LOW
Broomfield
300 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (20%)
LOW
Denver
300 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (70%) to 0.6" (35%)
LOW
Douglas
300 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (25%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Douglas
100 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 AM MON
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 6 months