September 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 430 PM Fri September 30, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - A gust front has initiated strong thunderstorm development for portions of the District. - Moderate to heavy rainfall is likely especially areas east of I25 at this time. Best chance for heavy rain will be from now until 9pm. - Rainfall rates between 0.2-0.4" already occurring with isolated heavier rainfall likely. These storms will continue over the next couple of hours as the move eastward. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms between a trace and 0.30". A moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.30-0.0.60" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger slow moving thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.6-1.6" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 406 PM Fri September 30, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- GUST FRONT HAS TRIGGERED STRONG STORMS SOUTH DISTRICT - A gust front from the NE has moved into the District initiating a strong thunderstorm in northern Douglas County. - This cell will move to the NE and through Arapahoe County into Aurora over the next couple of hours. This gust front has increased the heavy rain threat for portions of the District and will result in a LOW chance for Message 1's. - Widespread rain showers across the rest of the District and will continue over the next several hours and into this evening. Best chance for moderate to heavy rain across the District will be from now until 9pm this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm can produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, slow moving thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.5-1.25" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions will be in place tomorrow with a chance for moderate to heavy rainfall during the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 841 AM Fri September 30, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - A trough of low-pressure will begin to move through the region today leading to a good chance for widespread rain showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with a very slight chance for lingering rain showers through the overnight. High temperatures today will reach the mid to upper 70's on the plains with upper 60's to low 70's along the foothills. - Shower activity currently on the western slope will slowly progress eastward and into the District this afternoon. Sprinkles to light rain will be possible by midday today with shower activity picking up this afternoon and into the early evening. Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall, with isolated higher amounts possible if stronger storms are able to develop. Storm motions will be from the W/SW to E/NE between 10-15mph which will also limit point rainfall amounts. Best chance for shower activity will decrease after sunset with a slight chance for a few overnight rain showers. - Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's on the plains with low to mid 40's along the foothills. Any rain shower activity through the overnight expected between a TR-0.1". STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This pattern remains through the weekend with off and on rain shower/isolated thunderstorm activity both Saturday and Sunday. Today is the final day for weather coverage from Skyview Weather. Thank you for another great season! Any questions or comments should be directed to Bruce Rindahl at 303-455-6277 or Bruce Rindahl brindahl(a)mhfd.org. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 859 AM Thu September 29, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CONTINUED WARM WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Temperatures will continue to run well above seasonal averages but below record levels today. Highs this afternoon will reach the low to mid 80's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 74 degrees with a record high of 92 degrees. - SW flow aloft will increase mid and upper level moisture and cloud cover will be on the increase as the day progresses with isolated rain showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain by around noon or shortly after. Upper level steering winds from SW to NE at around 15-20mph will then push the storms onto the plains by 1-2pm. By 6 or 7pm shower activity will be on the decrease with conditions drying out this evening. - Rain showers and weak thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will be high-based producing minimal rainfall and gusty winds. Many areas likely end up on the drier side or experience just a few sprinkles. Best chances for measurable precipitation today will be in and near the foothills. Conditions will be dry for the overnight period with lows into Friday morning in the 40's foothills and lower 50's plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and high-based weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An approaching trough of low pressure will increase shower and thunderstorm coverage on Friday. Scattered rain showers and weak to moderate thunderstorms will fill in during the afternoon and continue possible well into the evening as a cold front moves through. Much cooler Saturday with additional rain showers expected and possibly a rumble of thunder. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 841 AM Wed September 28, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY - Temperatures will warm well above seasonal averages today with generally dry conditions as high pressure dominates our weather pattern. Afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid 80's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 74 degrees, the record for the date is 92 degrees. - Conditions will be dry over the plains with a build-up of clouds over the foothills and Palmer Divide with a very isolated rain shower or weak thunderstorm possible. If a shower or weak thunderstorm does develop it will be outside the District or over the far W and S fringes of the District. No meaningful moisture is expected beyond a few sprinkles. - Conditions will be dry for the overnight period with lows into Thursday morning in the 40's foothills and 50's plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful rainfall is expected, less than 0.1" with mainly trace type amounts over the higher terrain. A LOOK AHEAD: Remaining unseasonably warm on Thursday with a slight chance for an isolated afternoon rain shower or weak thunderstorm. Most areas will continue to be dry with best chances for any moisture over the foothills. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 844 AM Tue September 27, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN - An increase in mid and upper level moisture will lead to a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms over the District today. Temperatures will continue to run above seasonal averages with readings in the upper 70's to lower 80's over the plains with 60's and 70's in the Front Range foothills. Mostly sunny skies early will become partly to mostly cloudy as convective clouds develop this afternoon. - Most of the shower and weak thunderstorm activity today will remain over the mountains, foothills, and higher terrain of the Palmer Divide with lesser chances over the plains between 2-8pm. The storms that develop today will be high-based as surface moisture is lacking resulting in minimal rainfall and gusty winds. Many areas along the I-25 corridor will likely end up dry or experience just a few gusty sprinkles. - After 8pm conditions are expected to dry out with overnight lows dropping into the 40's foothills and upper 40's to lower 50's plains into Wednesday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to retreat back into the higher mountains on Wednesday leaving the I-25 corridor on the dry side. Temperatures will remain either side of 80 degrees for highs over the plains with readings about 10 degrees cooler in the foothills. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 810 AM Mon September 26, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND DRY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE - High pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern over the District leading to warm and dry conditions with plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70's to lower 80's over the plains with light and variable winds. Normal high for Denver today is 75 degrees. - There will be a few a fair weather clouds that develop over the mountains and then drift over the plains mid to late afternoon but conditions will be dry in and around the District today. Tonight temperatures will drop into the upper 40's and lower 50's for overnight lows along the I-25 corridor. Normal low for Denver this time of year is 46 degrees. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Upper level moisture will begin to increase on Tuesday and will lead to a few rain showers and weak thunderstorms developing over the foothills and Palmer Divide in the afternoon and early evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish as they move off the higher terrain but a stray shower or weak storm cannot be ruled out over the District between 2-8pm. Temperatures will decrease 1-3 degrees, mainly due to more cloud cover in the afternoon. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 802 AM Sun September 25, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SUNNY AND DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES - Conditions will be sunny and dry over the District today with seasonal temperatures. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid to upper 70's over the plains with 60's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 76 degrees. - Surface winds will be light, varying from the S/SE this morning and E/NE this afternoon at less than 10mph. - Overnight lows will dip into the 40's to around 50 over the plains with 30's and 40's in the higher foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will tack on about 5 degrees to afternoon highs on Monday with readings in the lower 80's over the plains. Conditions will remain dry state-wide with a chance for isolated thunderstorm activity returning to the area on Tuesday. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 846 AM Sat September 24, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT - High-pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest will continue to transport warm and dry air into the region. This fall pattern is expected to continue over the next several days. - Today will be sunny and uneventful with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 20s. Very dry conditions are expected today as relative humidity values dip into the teens by the afternoon. - Skies will remain clear overnight with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40's to low 50s on the plains, mid to upper 30s across the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected across the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: A weak cool front will wash over the Plains tonight, limiting tomorrows afternoon high temperatures to the mid to upper 70s with skies remaining sunny. Dry and warm conditions continue Monday and Tuesday as high temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s under clear skies once again. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 844 AM Fri September 23, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY - High-pressure ridging over Texas will expand northward today, transporting warm and dry air into the region. This fall pattern is expected to continue into next week. - Today will be sunny and uneventful with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s, dewpoints in the low 30's. Very dry conditions are expected today as relative humidity values dip into the teens by the afternoon. - Skies will remain clear overnight with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40's to low 50s on the plains, mid to upper 30s across the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected across the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: The warming trend continues Saturday with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s under clear and sunny skies. On Sunday, the dome of high pressure will recede a bit, limiting afternoon high temperatures to the mid to upper 70s with skies remaining sunny. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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