September 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 914 AM Thu September 22, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOL AND OVERCAST WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT - An upper-level low will continue to transport tropical moisture into Colorado, supporting cool temperatures and stratified rain across the Front Range Urban Corridor today. - Afternoon high temperatures will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, dewpoints in the mid 50s, with sprinkles to light rainfall persisting through the late morning and into the evening. Prime time for showers will be from noon to 7PM. - Skies will begin clearing overnight as the upper-level low begins to lift out of the Great Basin. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s on the plains, Upper 30's across the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce rainfall rates of trace to 0.2" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training showers are able to develop with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall of 0.2-0.4" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure ridging over Texas will expand northward tomorrow, transporting warm and dry air into the region. As a result, tomorrow will be sunny and uneventful as high temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Saturday will be similar with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under clear and sunny skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (50%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (50%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (50%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (50%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (50%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (50%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (50%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1100 AM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) NONE Douglas 1100 AM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) NONE Jefferson 1100 AM TO 700 PM Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 857 AM Wed September 21, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER, CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES - Much cooler and cloudy today as a cold front moved through overnight. Official highs for the date were likely reached just after midnight last night with readings through the day mainly in the 50's to around 60. Conditions will be generally dry through the morning with possibly a few small areas of light showers or mist/drizzle. - Rain showers will begin to fill in this afternoon becoming widespread by late afternoon or early evening. Precipitation is expected to be a stratiform rain versus convective thunderstorms resulting in mainly light to moderate rain but if a thunderstorm is observed brief heavy rainfall will be possible. - Prime time for rain showers will be starting between 2-4pm and continue through Thursday morning. Upslope flow at the surface will favor areas in and near the foothills for more persistent showers and higher rainfall totals into Thursday morning. Typical rainfall amounts from midday today until Thursday morning is expected to range from 0.25-0.75" with isolated higher amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce rainfall rates of trace to 0.3" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. Although unlikely, this threat will result in a LOW Message potential today. A LOOK AHEAD: Rain showers will continue into Thursday morning with some lulls at times through the day. Precipitation will begin to move out of the District during the mid to late afternoon and conditions will dry out in the evening hours. Highs Thursday only in the 50's foothills with some 60's over the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 919 AM Tue September 20, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY OVER THE DISTRICT TODAY/CLOUDY, COOL AND WET ON WEDNESDAY - Conditions will be dry over the District for one more day with temperatures continuing to run well above seasonal averages. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80's to lower 90's over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 78 degrees and the record high is 94 degrees. - SW flow aloft will be increasing mid and upper level moisture as the day progresses with showers and thunderstorms forming over western Colorado and the mountainous areas of the state. Areas E of the Continental Divide including the District are expected to remain on the dry side until a cold front moves through later this evening. - Behind the front chances for light rain showers will be increasing overnight into Wednesday morning. Minimal moisture is expected overnight with more significant shower activity filling in ahead of noon on Wednesday. Overnight lows will dip into the 50's over the plains with some 40's in the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers overnight will produce rainfall rates of a trace to 0.2" in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Much cooler and cloudy Wednesday with highs only in the 50's to lower 60's. Rain showers will increase Wednesday morning with prime time for measurable rain from about 10am or noon Wednesday through daybreak Thursday. Typical rainfall amounts expected to be in the 0.25-0.75" range with higher amounts possible. The cooler temperatures should lead to a stratiform rain event versus a convective thunderstorm environment resulting in generally light to moderate rain. If thunderstorms are able to develop heavy rainfall will be possible. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 1100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 903 AM Mon September 19, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY - Temperatures will continue to run above seasonal averages with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 80's to around 90 over the plains and 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 79 degrees, record high is 96 degrees. - High pressure will dominate the weather today leading to dry conditions most areas and a slight chance for an isolated rain shower or weak thunderstorm over the foothills and S/SE areas of the District. Moisture is lacking at the surface and the most likely outcome is a build up of clouds making for partly to mostly cloudy skies late in the afternoon and maybe a few sprinkles along with gusty winds. - If a rain shower or weak thunderstorm is observed it will be between 4-10pm. After 10pm dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Isolated rain showers weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. A LOOK AHEAD: Another warm day on Tuesday with highs in the upper 80's to around 90 over the plains ahead of a cold front that will move through overnight. There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers or isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon and evening with rain showers starting to fill in overnight into Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be much cooler and rainy with highs in the 50's to lower 60's. Rain showers will become widespread as the day progresses with 0.50-1.25" of moisture expected at this time from Wednesday morning into Thursday morning. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 907 AM Sun September 18, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY - High pressure ridging will build across the Great Plains today, transporting warm, dry air into the state. As a result, today will be uneventful with afternoon high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s, dewpoints in the low 30s. - Dry conditions are expected today. Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day with a few stray clouds possible towards the evening. - Skies will remain clear overnight with low temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected across the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: On Tuesday, skies will be clear throughout the day with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. An upper-level disturbance will work its way across the Rockies late Tuesday, bringing unsettled conditions and cooler fall temperatures to the Front Range Urban Corridor. There is a slight chance for post-frontal rain overnight on Tuesday. Rain showers will continue Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 947 AM Sat September 17, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - An upper-level disturbance will continue to work it's way across the intermountain west today, creating a favorable environment for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the District. - High temperatures today will reach the low 80s, surface dew points in the low 40's. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to produce minimal to light rainfall today - As showers and thunderstorms taper off into the evening, skies will gradually clear through the overnight. Lows will drop into the low 50's on the plains with upper 40's to low 50's across the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 0.2"-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging will build across the Great Plains next week, transporting warm, dry air into the state. As a result, Sunday and Monday will be sunny and uneventful with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. Tuesday will be similar with temperatures around 90 degrees under sunny skies. Looking ahead, an upper-level disturbance will work its way across the Rockies early Tuesday, bringing unsettled conditions and cooler fall temperatures to the Front Range Urban Corridor. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 922 AM Fri September 16, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - An upper-level disturbance will continue to work it's way across the intermountain west today, creating a favorable environment for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the District. - With a jet streak positioned across the Colorado/Utah border, upper level steering winds will support fast-moving storms. High temperatures today will reach the upper 70s to low 80s, surface dew points in the mid to upper 40's -- much lower than yesterday. With an increase in storm motions and lower surface dewpoints, storms will produce light to moderate rainfall today. - As showers and thunderstorms taper off into the evening, skies will gradually clear through the overnight with cool and mild conditions expected into Friday. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 50's on the plains with upper 30's to low 40's across the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorms can produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 0.5"-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The warming trend continues Saturday with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s with another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms. High pressure ridging will build across the Great Plains next week, transporting warm, dry air into the state. As a result, Sunday and Monday will be sunny and uneventful with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 734 PM Thu September 15, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 8:00 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Strongest storms today remained to the E and SE of the District over Elbert and eastern Arapahoe Counties. These storms produced a gust front which pushed back into the District from SE to NW but did not generate anything more than a few weak showers. - Generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight with an isolated light rain shower or two possible over the next 60-90 minutes. Meaningful rainfall is not expected beyond a trace. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful rainfall is expected. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 459 PM Thu September 15, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING - Message 1's will continue valid until 8:00 PM but the threat for heavy rainfall from thunderstorms is diminishing. - Strongest storms today remained to the E and SE of the District over Elbert and eastern Arapahoe Counties. These storms have produced a gust front which is pushing back to the NW but is failing to produce any additional storms. - Surface moisture has decreased from earlier this afternoon and with temperatures at or just past their peak the threat for thunderstorms will be lowering into the evening. Should a thunderstorm develop over the next 2-3 hours it will still be capable of producing heavy rainfall but much of the available energy has been tapped by storms outside the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.2" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.0" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 208 PM Thu September 15, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:00 PM this evening. - An upper-level disturbance, rich with moisture from the remnants of tropical cyclone Kay, is propagating across the state this afternoon creating a favorable environment for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the District into the evening. Typical storms will produce brief moderate rainfall but stronger storms or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce small areas of heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty winds. - Prime time for thunderstorm activity will be starting over the next hour and continue through about 7:30 PM. Favored areas for stronger storms appears to be E of I-25 and S of I-70. Thunderstorms are expected to have pushed east of the District by 8:00 PM or shortly after. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.6" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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