Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 831 AM Mon September 5, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT AND UNEVENTFUL CONDITIONS PERSIST
-
High pressure ridging continues to build over the Great Basin,
supporting very hot and uneventful conditions along the Front Range
Urban Corridor through the next several days. Today will be sunny and
dry as high temperatures soar into the mid to upper 90s, possibly
reaching triple digits, with dewpoints falling to the mid 30's.
-
Water vapor imagery and forecast soundings reveal a dry, stable
airmass across much of the state. A few stray showers may develop
across the high country, but no precipitation is expected in the
District today or overnight.
-
Overnight will be mild and dry as lows drop into the low to mid 60's
on the plains with low 50's along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be hot and dry with clear skies and
temperatures reaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. The heat
wave continues Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon temperatures
around 100 degrees under clear skies. An upper-level wave and
associated cold front will traverse the Rockies late Thursday night,
positioning a cooler airmass across the state. Afternoon highs are
expected to reach the low 80s on Friday with a chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 907 AM Sun September 4, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT AND UNEVENTFUL CONDITIONS TODAY
-
High pressure ridging across the intermountain west will support hot
and uneventful conditions along the Front Range Urban Corridor over
the next several days. Today will be sunny and dry with high
temperatures in the low to mid 90âs, dewpoints falling to the mid
30's.
-
Water vapor imagery and forecast soundings reveal a very dry, stable
airmass settling across the state. As a result, no precipitation is
expected across the District today or overnight.
-
Overnight will be mild and dry as lows drop into the low 60's on the
plains with low 50's along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow, skies will be clear as temperatures reach the
mid to upper 90s; 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
The heat wave continues Tuesday as afternoon temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s once again. Some areas may reach 100 degrees. Hot
and dry conditions persist throughout the week and into next weekend.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 756 AM Sat September 3, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT, SUNNY AND DRY
-
High-pressure will hold over the region today leading to another hot
and sunny day as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to low 90's on
the plains with low to mid 80's along the foothills.
-
A few showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
Continental Divide this afternoon and evening, however no rainfall is
expected within the District boundaries today as any shower activity
is expected to anchor to the higher terrain.
-
Overnight will be mild and dry as lows drop into the upper 50's to
low 60's on the plains with low 50's along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure will continue to dominate over the region
bringing mild, hot and dry conditions Sunday with highs expected in
the low to mid 90's. Even warmer heading into next week with highs
continuing in the 90's with dry conditions expected Monday through
Wednesday.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1140 PM Fri September 2, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
-
A very energetic thunderstorm complex moved through the District
earlier this evening producing quite the lightning show as well as
brief moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds and even a little hail.
-
This area of thunderstorms is now exiting the District with a more
stable airmass developing which is eliminating the threat for heavy
rain for the remainder of the evening and overnight period allowing
Message 1's to expire at midnight. Stronger thunderstorms this evening
produced 0.2-0.7" if rain 15-45 minutes with isolated higher amounts.
-
Rain showers will taper off over S/SE areas of the District over the
next 30-60 minutes producing another TR-0.1" of rain. Dry conditions
are expected to fill in for the remainder of the evening and overnight
period. A dry day is expected on Saturday with temperatures continuing
to run above seasonal averages.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation is
expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period as
showers end from NW to SE, TR-0.1" additional rain.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 745 PM Fri September 2, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING/MESSAGE
1'S MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY
-
Thunderstorms have developed over Larimer and Weld Counties and are
moving southeastward and will likely impact portions of the District
into the evening. These storms are relatively fast moving and and
high-based resulting in gusty winds and light to moderate rain from
the typical storms.
-
A stronger slow moving thunderstorm will be able to moisten the air
underneath and will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall which
may result in Message 1's being issued shortly.
-
Prime time for thunderstorm activity will be from 9pm until around
midnight. Best chances for stronger storms will be along and E of I-25
with lesser chances for strong storms over the foothills.
Thunderstorms may also contain hail and gusty winds in excess of
40mph.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms
will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Strong
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall
of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a slower moving
strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce up to 1.4" of
rain in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions over the District will be dry on Saturday
with temperatures continuing to run above seasonal averages.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%)
HIGH
Boulder
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Broomfield
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Denver
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%)
HIGH
Douglas
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%)
HIGH
Jefferson
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Douglas
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Jefferson
800 PM TO 100 AM SAT
0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 756 AM Fri September 2, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
-
Not much change to the overall pattern today as high temperatures
remain above average in the upper 80's to low 90's this afternoon.
High-pressure will still dominate over the region leading to mostly
mild conditions.
-
A slight chance for a few high-based rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, however, most areas
will likely remain dry as any precipitation struggles to reach the
surface today. Best chance for shower activity will be from 2-8pm with
skies clearing through the late evening. Storm motions will be from
the NW to SE between 10-15mph which will also help limit any point
rainfall amounts.
-
Overnight will be mild and dry as low temperatures drop into the
upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the
foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical high-based showers will
produce a trace-0.1" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain
shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.1-0.2" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger storm is able to develop and can
potentially produce 0.2-0.5" of rainfall in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A weak cold front moves into the region effectively
dropping Saturday's high temperatures into the 80's. A slight chance
for rain shower/thunderstorm activity along the higher terrain
Saturday afternoon with minimal, if any precipitation expected inside
the District at this time. Sunday's high temperatures jump back into
the low 90's with sunny and mild conditions throughout the day.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 826 AM Thu September 1, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT, SUNNY AND DRY
-
High-pressure continues to dominate over the region today leading to
hot, sunny and mild conditions throughout the day.
-
A few clouds this afternoon, however no precipitation is expected
today. low to mid 90's expected on the plains with mid to upper 80's
along the foothills.
-
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60's with skies
clearing into daybreak Friday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure continues to hold through the weekend. A
very slight chance for a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms
tomorrow, mainly along the foothills and Palmer Divide with dry
conditions expected for most areas. High temperatures stay in the low
90's through Sunday with mostly sunny skies with mild conditions.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months