May 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 900 AM Sun May 26, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warm, breezy, mostly sunny, and dry today Westerly upper-level flow aloft will turn northwesterly throughout the morning resulting in dry conditions today and this evening. Winds are currently breezy out of the west and will pick up this afternoon from the northwest between 10-20mph sustained with gusts up to 30 miles per hour at times. Mostly sunny skies today with a few clouds this afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures today will reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon with mid 40s overnight and into tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place for Memorial Day, slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Dry conditions will be expected throughout the day once again under mostly sunny skies. A change in the overall pattern Tuesday with a chance for the typical afternoon and early evening showers/isolated thunderstorms. Chances increase Wednesday afternoon and early evening as high temperatures reach around 80 degrees in the afternoon. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 1 week

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 955 AM Sat May 25, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated to Scattered Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms Skies will be partly to mostly sunny this morning as the arrival of an upper-level trough improves atmospheric moisture across the region. Afternoon temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s, dew points in the mid 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) vales up to 0.50”. These conditions will support isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of producing light rainfall during the afternoon and evening. Storm motions will be from the west-southwest to east-northeast around 15-20 mph. Skies will gradually clear overnight with dry conditions expected tomorrow morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.05” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms, may be capable of producing up to 0.20” of rainfall in up to 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Sunday morning will be sunny with seasonal temperatures prevailing across the District. Gusty downslope conditions will limit storm development across the region, resulting in dry conditions throughout the day and overnight into Monday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (55%) to 0.05" (45%) to 0.1" (35%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (55%) to 0.05" (45%) to 0.1" (35%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (55%) to 0.05" (45%) to 0.1" (35%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1038 AM Fri May 24, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Slight chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Cooler temperatures and sunny skies have emerged across the High Plains following last night’s cold front. Upper-level winds will gradually shift to southwesterly today, improving atmospheric moisture by the mid to late afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints in the low 20s. These conditions will support slight chances for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms capable of producing minimal precipitation. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight as the next wave advances into the region. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.05” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An isolated shower develops across the foothills and produces a trace to 0.15” of rainfall in up to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: On Saturday, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as atmospheric moisture improves with the arrival of an upper-level trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon and evening, followed by clearing skies overnight. Total rainfall amounts are expected to be minimal once again. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (25%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (25%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (25%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (25%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (25%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (25%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (25%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 859 AM Thu May 23, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warm and sunny conditions persist across the District today Warm and uneventful conditions are expected today as southwesterly upper-level flow transports a dry desert airmass across the state. Sunny morning skies will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 70s to low 80s, dew points in the mid 20s. Dry conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening, inhibiting storm development in and around the District today. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected today. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An isolated shower develops across the foothills and produces a trace to 0.05” of rainfall in up to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Another upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will make its way across the High Plains overnight, followed by cooler temperatures Friday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms, and better chances along the foothills. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 959 AM Wed May 22, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warm and sunny conditions emerge across the District today Warmer temperatures are expected today as sunny morning skies allow afternoon highs to reach the low to mid 70s, dewpoints in the low 20s. Uneventful conditions are expected throughout the day and overnight as a dry airmass works its way across the region. Overnight, skies will remain clear with low temperatures dipping into the upper 40s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No rainfall is expected today. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An isolated shower develops across the foothills and produces a trace to 0.05” of rainfall in up to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The warming trend continues Thursday with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dry air and poor upper-level support will continue to inhibit storm development across the Plains. However, a slight chance for light isolated afternoon showers are possible across complex terrain. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1004 AM Tue May 21, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Another cool day with a chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms The springtime pattern continues across the Front Range Urban Corridor as another upper-level trough sweeps across the state today. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.5”-0.6”. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually improve throughout the day, becoming scattered to widespread by the late afternoon. Storm motions will be from west to east around 20-25 mph. Storms will begin clearing after sunset, with precipitation fully concluding by the mid to late evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25”-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells, will have the potential to produce 0.50” to 0.80” total in up to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer temperatures are expected Wednesday as sunny morning skies allow afternoon highs to reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Dewpoints will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, supporting slight chances for afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 855 PM Mon May 20, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9pm for portions of the District as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. After a few strong storms for eastern portions of the District, only a few lingering showers remain as thunderstorms continue to move eastward and out of the District. Skies will gradually clear into the late evening, however an additional round of showers with some thunderstorm potential will be possible in the early morning hours Tuesday. Overnight lows will drop into upper 40s to low 50s on the plains with low to mid 40s along the foothills. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, starting as early as midday and lasting through the afternoon and into the early evening. The potential for strong to severe storms will remain, however, cooler overall temperatures, in the low 60s may help limit convection across the Front Range. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of a T-0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong showers have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.10” to 0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationary, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.50” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1100 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 737 PM Mon May 20, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM Explosive storm development has persisted for areas east of I-25 and will continue over the next hour or so. These rapidly developing storms have contained lots of hail, heavy rain, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Storm movement has been relatively fast, between 20-30mph, however a few storms have stalled out east and could continue to slow as they move out of the District. Storms should weaken as the sun sets as they continue to move eastward. The threat of heavy rainfall will likely diminish after 9pm with skies gradually clearing overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of a T-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong showers have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.25” to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationary, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 1.00” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 PM MON 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM MON 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM MON 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 900 AM Mon May 20, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cooler today with a chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms Slightly cooler today as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Clouds will increase by midday as a few showers and isolated thunderstorms initiate along the higher terrain foothills and Palmer Divide. Dew points today will remain in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees, which should help limit storm strength this afternoon and evening. Although, good southwesterly upper-level support could result in some stronger storm development, favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. Storm motions will also be brisk, between 10-20mph from W/SW to E/NE which should also help limit any point rainfall amounts today. The best chance for storms will be between 1pm-9pm. A LOW chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall today, mainly due to a storm forming off and outflow boundary, stalling over a certain area and producing a quick 0.50” in 10-20 minutes, rather than any long-lasting heavy rainfall. A chance for a few waves of showers well into the evening and overnight, with the best chance for impactful rainfall during the afternoon and early evening. Overnight lows will drop into the low 50s on the plains with low to mid 40s along the foothills. A cold front moves through overnight and into Tuesday resulting in a chance for a few lingering off and on light showers into the morning hours Tuesday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25”-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce 0.50” to 0.80” total in up to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A continued chance for showers overnight and into Tuesday. Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the low 60s and will likely limit rainfall potential with off and on showers likely throughout most of the day and into the evening. A slight chance for a few thunderstorms in the afternoon as daytime temperatures hit the peak heating for the day. Any thunderstorm activity will likely bring a chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall tomorrow, likely keeping a LOW chance for Messages tomorrow as well. Conditions start to dry out late Tuesday evening, overnight and into Wednesday with only a slight chance for the typical afternoon spring showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 900 AM Sun May 19, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warmer today with another chance for a few high-based afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms Very little overall change to the upper-level flow aloft will keep strong westerly winds aloft across the region today keeping mostly sunny and mild conditions throughout the morning. Today’s high temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Clouds will increase midday and early afternoon as a few high-based showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two initiate along the higher terrain foothills and Palmer Divide. Most thunderstorm activity should remain anchored to the higher terrain this afternoon, however a slight chance will remain that a few thunderstorms will make their way onto the plains and into the District. Any shower activity will likely be minimal today as most precipitation struggles to reach the surface. Dew points today will drop into the mid to upper 30s, which should help limit storm strength today. Storm motions will also be brisk, between 15-25mph from west to east which should also help limit any point rainfall amounts today. The best chance for storms will be between 1pm-7pm with skies gradually clearing overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the low 50s on the plains with mid to upper 40s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.05” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.10” to 0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 70s. A good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, picking up into the evening with a slight chance for some brief isolated moderate to heavy rainfall if stronger storms can develop, which will likely result in at least a LOW Message potential day. A continued chance for showers overnight and into Tuesday. Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the low 60s will likely limit rainfall potential with off and on showers likely throughout most of the day. Conditions start to dry out Wednesday with only a slight chance for the typical afternoon spring showers and isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 2 weeks

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