May 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 950 AM Thu May 9, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Today and This Evening Elevated moisture levels following last nights cold front will support chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Afternoon temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s with dew points in the low 30s. Slight chances for isolated showers this morning will gradually improve throughout the day. Storm motions will be quick around 25 mph, limiting point rainfall amounts. Isolated storms are possible overnight, decreasing in coverage during the early morning hours tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger showers blowing off the foothills have the potential to produce up to 0.20” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Friday afternoon and evening with winds from the east between 5-10 mph and gusts up to 15 mph. This typical spring pattern continues into the weekend with chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms and warmer temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 500 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE Arapahoe 500 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE Boulder 500 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE Broomfield 500 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE Denver 500 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE Douglas 500 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE Jefferson 500 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 957 AM Wed May 8, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Dry conditions today with Isolated showers overnight. Today will be dry and sunny with afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s, and dew points in the teens. Atmospheric moisture will increase overnight as a cold front washes over the Plains, supporting slight chances for a few isolated showers across the District during the early morning hours tomorrow. Dewpoints will still be relatively low early tomorrow morning, therefore any precipitation that does manage to reach the ground will be minimal. Showers will be westerly around 20-25 mph. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.05” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger showers blowing off the foothills have the potential to produce up to 0.10” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Elevated moisture following the cold front will improve chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, becoming scattered by the afternoon and evening. Isolated storms are possible Thursday overnight, gradually decreasing in coverage during the early morning hours. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Boulder 200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Broomfield 200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Denver 200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Douglas 200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Jefferson 200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Douglas 1200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Jefferson 1200 AM TO 800 AM Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 925 AM Tue May 7, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon Similar conditions as yesterday with weaker westerly winds today, allowing some possible weak convection to move off the foothills and into The District. Highs today will be in low to mid 60s with dewpoints in the upper teens, possibly breaking into the low 20s in areas. A very slight chance for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon with minimal precipitation expected. The best chance for shower activity will be between 1:00 PM and 6:00 PM. Any weak convection moving off the foothills will be high base and most, if not all, precipitation will evaporate before hitting the ground. Storm motion will be westerly to west-southwesterly at 20-25 mph, with westerly to west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 0.20” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: More northerly winds tomorrow and lower dewpoints will keep the District dry, with some possible weak shallow convection with minimal precipitation during the overnight hours and into Thursday morning from very weak low-level upslope. Same thing Thursday night with another possible weak low-level upslope setting up, possibly creating weak shallow convection that will produce minimal precipitation. Friday and Saturday looks to be an average spring afternoons and evenings with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible both days. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.05" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 903 AM Mon May 6, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Windy and Dry Conditions for The District Today Westerly downsloping winds will inhibit any sort of storm development today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than average for this time of year with highs around 60 degrees. Dewpoints across The District will be very low, maxing out in the upper teens, and even lower dewpoints in the foothills due to the down sloping winds. These winds will be strong with 25-35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph during the day, decreasing in strength through the evening and the overnight with gusty winds continuing into tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s on the plains and upper 20s to low 30s for the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place for tomorrow with westerly winds weakening but still prevalent with speeds in the 10-30 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph at times. Dew points will continue to be in the upper teen and low 20s which will help limit moisture, but with some upper level support, some weak high based storms may develop. The high based storms may produce some precipitation, but should remain minimal as most struggles to reach the surface. Wednesday will likely remain dry and have northerly winds of 10-20 mph, with only a slight chacne for some precipitation starting overnight and into Thursday due to shallow upslope convection across the Front Range. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 910 AM Sun May 5, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- A Very Slight Chance for Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening Another shallow stratus deck is blanketing The District this morning but will dissipate by the afternoon; This will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s. Currently winds are fairly calm and will increase this afternoon and into this evening from the south between 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph. A slight chance for a few showers and isoalted thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with minimal precipitation expected. The best chance for shower activity will be between 1:00-7:00 PM with skies partially clearing overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s with winds increasing throughout the day tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 0.20” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will dry out significantly with westerly downsloping winds taking over. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s and dew points in the upper teens, creating zero heavy rain threat for the District. A better chance for showers mid week, however the threat for any heavy rain remains minimal. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 931 AM Sat May 4, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening A shallow stratus deck blanketing The District this morning will limit solar heating before deteriorating over the next several hours. Afternoon temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s, dewpoints in the low to mid 30s, with skies becoming mostly sunny. Winds will be from the east between 5-10 mph, gusts up to 15 mph. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms improve this afternoon and evening with minimal precipitation expected. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 0.20” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be uneventful with afternoon highs in the the mid to upper 70s and winds from the south between 15-25 mph, gusts as high as 35 mph. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 922 AM Fri May 3, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening Springtime weather continues today as a series of upper-level disturbances propagate across the Intermountain West. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 60s to low 70s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 30s. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms improve this afternoon and evening with minimal precipitation expected. Winds will be from the northwest between 5-15 mph, gusts up to 30 mph. Quick storm motions and limited atmospheric moisture will restrict point rainfall amounts. Skies will gradually clear overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 0.20” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow, afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 60s with winds from the east between 5-10 mph, gusts as high as 20 mph. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will improve during the afternoon and through the evening. Minimal precipitation is expected. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 942 AM Thu May 2, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening A series of upper-level disturbances propagating across the Intermountain West will support typical springtime showers and thunderstorms along the District this afternoon and evening. Afternoon temperatures will reach the mid 60s with dewpoints in the low 30s. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening. Storm motion today will be quick, limiting point rainfall amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 0.20” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A warming trend begins tomorrow as the cool airmass exits the High Plains. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s to low 70s with winds from the south between 10-20 mph, gusts as high as 30 mph. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will improve during the afternoon and through the evening. Minimal precipitation is expected. Saturday will be similar with afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and winds from the south at 10-15 mph, gusts up to 20 mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.05" (50%) to 0.1" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1000 AM Wed May 1, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening Mostly sunny conditions this morning are expected across the District as a series of upper-level disturbances propagate across the Intermountain West starting later today. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints in the low 30s. Scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening across complex terrain, with coverage becoming isolated as storms move east onto the Plains. Storm motion today will be quick, limiting point rainfall amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce light rainfall of up to 0.15” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 0.30” total rainfall 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be sunny and much cooler. Temperatures will reach the low 60s with dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will improve during the afternoon and through the evening. Minimal precipitation is expected. Temperatures will rebound on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and winds from the west at 10-20 mph, gusts up to 35 mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are once again possible during the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.15" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months, 3 weeks

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