Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 902 AM Sat May 18, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Cooler today with a chance for high-based afternoon showers/isolated
thunderstorms
The high-pressure ridge shifts slightly south today leading to
westerly upper-level flow aloft across the region which will bring
mostly sunny and mild conditions throughout the morning. Today’s
high temperatures will reach around 80 degrees this afternoon.
Clouds will increase this afternoon and early evening as high-based
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms initiate along the higher
terrain foothills. Most thunderstorm activity should remain anchored
to the foothills this afternoon, however a slight chance will remain a
few thunderstorms will make their way onto the plains and into the
District.
Dew points will drop into the low to mid 30s, which should help limit
storm strengths today. Storm motions will also be brisk, between
15-25mph from west to east which should also help limit any point
rainfall amounts. The best chance for storms will be between 1pm-7pm
with skies gradually clearing overnight. Overnight lows will drop into
the low 50s on the plains with mid to upper 40s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate
shower/thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.20” total in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to
produce 0.20” to 0.40” total in 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure builds tomorrow bringing high temperatures
back into the 80s across the District. Sunny, breezy, and dry
conditions are expected throughout most of the day tomorrow with mild
and dry conditions heading into Monday. Cooler Monday with highs
reaching the upper 70s. A good chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, picking up into the evening with a slight chance for
some brief isolated moderate to heavy rainfall if stronger storms can
develop. A continued chance for showers overnight and into Tuesday.
Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the low 60s will likely limit
rainfall potential with off and on showers likely throughout most of
the day.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 903 AM Fri May 17, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warm, sunny, mild, and dry today.
The high-pressure ridge continues to dominate the region today
leading to mostly sunny and mild conditions throughout the day and
evening. Toda’s high temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s,
the warmest day so far this year. Winds will pick up slightly this
afternoon from the west with gusts around 15mph at times, decreasing
into the evening. A few clouds this afternoon and evening with
pleasant conditions expected through daybreak tomorrow. Overnight lows
will drop into the low 50s on the plains with mid to upper 40s along
the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No showers are expected today
or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler tomorrow as high temperatures reach the mid to
upper 70s. The high-pressure ridge starts to break down slightly,
combined with increased surface moisture, will bring a chance for
shower and thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon and into the
evening. The best chance for showers and thunderstorm will be between
2pm-8pm with a few lingering showers possible into the later evening.
Currently there is no indication of heavy rainfall with any of
tomorrow’s storms. Dry conditions likely return Wednesday with high
temperatures jumping back into the 80’s.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 943 AM Thu May 16, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Mostly Sunny with slight chances for Isolated Showers
Temperatures across the Front Range Urban Corridor will rebound
today as high pressure ridging resumes over the Intermountain West.
Afternoon highs climb into the mid 70s, dewpoints in the mid 30s.
Skies will be mostly sunny with slight chances of afternoon and
evening isolated showers, mostly along complex terrain. Skies will be
clear overnight with mostly dry conditions expected tomorrow.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: If showers develop, they could
produce light rainfall of up to 0.05” total in 15-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger showers blowing off the foothills have
the potential to produce up to 0.10” total rainfall 15-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: The warming trend continues Friday as temperatures reach
the low 80s. Winds will be from the west-southwest between 5-10 mph,
with slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening showers.
Saturday will be similar with highs around 80°F and better chances
for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Denver
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 956 AM Wed May 15, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening
Upper level troughing is in place across the Intermountain West
following the cold front this morning. Afternoon highs will reach the
upper 60s to low 70s, dew points around 40°F, and precipitable water
(PWAT) values between 0.55 and 0.65 inches. This pattern will support
cooler, unsettled weather across the District today and tonight.
Chances for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms capable
of producing more meaningful precipitation improve this afternoon and
evening. A few isolated light showers may linger into the overnight
hours gradually clearing by the early morning hours.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.25” total rainfall 15-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm will have the
potential to produce up to 0.50” total rainfall total in 10-30
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will rebound on Thursday with afternoon
highs in the mid 70s and dew points low 30s. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening followed by clearing
skies overnight.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Broomfield
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Denver
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 918 AM Tue May 14, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon and
Evening
High pressure ridging continues over the Intermountain West today
supporting warm temperatures and chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the District. Afternoon highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 30s, and PWAT
values up to 0.6”. Chances for showers and thunderstorms improve
this afternoon and evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Storm
velocity will be from west to east around 20-30 mph. Quick storm
motions will help limit point rainfall amounts.
Another surge late this evening could bring another chance for showers
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. This late round will be
between 9pm-midnight and will also move quickly from west to east
between 20-30 mph. Chances for isolated showers diminish overnight as
temperatures drop into the upper 40s to low 50s on the plains with mid
40s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
light rainfall of up to 0.15” total in 15-30 minutes. A stronger
shower or isoalted thunderstorm will produce 0.15"-0.25” total
rainfall 15-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm will have the
potential to produce up to 0.50” total rainfall total in 15-30
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Ridging will break down overnight as the cold front
sweeps across the Plains. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s, dew
points in the low 40s, and PWAT values between 0.65” and 0.75”.
This pattern will support chances for scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms capable of producing more meaningful rainfall across
portions of the District likley leading to LOW Message potential.
Storms are possible through Wednesday evening followed by clearing
skies overnight.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.15" (30%) to 0.25" (15%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.15" (30%) to 0.25" (15%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.15" (30%) to 0.25" (15%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.15" (30%) to 0.25" (15%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.15" (30%) to 0.25" (15%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.15" (30%) to 0.25" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.15" (30%) to 0.25" (15%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (80%) to 0.15" (40%) to 0.25" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (80%) to 0.15" (40%) to 0.25" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (80%) to 0.15" (40%) to 0.25" (20%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 928 AM Mon May 13, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warmer today with a chance for scattered afternoon and early evening
showers/thunderstorms.
Upper-level flow shifts northwesterly today leading to sunny and
mild conditions this morning. Some residual surface moisture and
decent daytime heating with highs reaching the low to mid 70s this
afternoon will result in a chance for a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two this afternoon and early evening.
The best chance for any storm activity across the District will be
between 2:00PM-7:00PM with a few lingering showers into the later
evening. Storm motions today will be from the NW to SE between
10-20mph which will limit point rainfall amounts. Currently dew points
are around 40 degrees and will likely decrease into the afternoon.
Skies are expected to clear overnight and into Tuesday. Overnight lows
will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s on the plains with low to mid
40s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak thunderstorm will
produce 0.10”-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm has the potential to
produce up to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer tomorrow as high temperatures reach the mid to
upper 70s with continued W to NW flow aloft. Surface moisture
increases slightly bringing a better overall chance for shower and
thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. This
uptick in moisture will likely result in a LOW chance of some brief
heavy rain, mainly a quick 0.5” in 10-20min from stronger storm
development. A few lingering showers into Wednesday with an active day
continuing throughout the day with off and on showers during the
morning, with precipitation chances picking up into the afternoon and
evening. Temperatures during the day Wednesday will play a large roll
in storm strength as high temperatures are only expected to reach the
low 60s. This should effectively limit the potential for stronger
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 859 AM Sun May 12, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning with
afternoon and evening isolated showers/thunderstorms possible.
An active weather pattern is upon the District this weekend with a
round of widespread off and on showers this morning with a few
imbedded thunderstorms. These showers have persisted this morning and
will continue over the next several hours, slowly clearing out into
the afternoon. As skies clear, a continued chance for a few isolated
showers and possibly some more thunderstorms depending on how much we
warm into the afternoon. Currently temperatures are expected to reach
the mid to upper 60s, however, more sunshine will result in a better
chance for thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
Storm motions will shift from NE to SW to a more N to S orientation
this afternoon with storm speeds between 10-15mph effectively limiting
point rainfall amounts. If stronger storms develop, some slower storm
motions will be possible as storms form along outflow boundaries,
which could lead to some moderate to brief heavy rain bringing a LOW
chance for Message 1s today. The best chance for thunderstorms will be
between noon and 6pm with a few lingering showers possible into the
later evening and overnight, although any threat of heavy rain will
diminish this evening.
A chance for a few lingering off and on showers overnight tonight with
conditions clearing out tomorrow morning. Overnight lows will drop
into the mid 40s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
rainfall rates of up to T-0.25” total in 15-30 minutes. Moderate
showers or a thunderstorm will produce 0.25"-0.50" in 15-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger showers/thunderstorms, or training of
showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce up to 0.75”
total rainfall 15-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This active pattern will hold throughout the week with
storm chances every afternoon and evening. Tomorrow will likely be the
least active day with only a slight chance of showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm or two in the afternoon/evening. A better chance
for impactful rainfall Wednesday and into Thursday with a slight
chance for moderate to heavy rainfall both days.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM SUN
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (30%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 916 PM Sat May 11, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Scattered Showers Persist Overnight
A weak cold front is expected to sweep across the plains overnight,
bringing a chance for a few scattered showers across the District
during the overnight and into the early morning hours tomorrow. Cool
temperatures in the mid 40s and PWAT values of around 0.55 will result
in relatively light precipitation during the frontal passage. The best
chance for morning showers will be between 3am-7am. Atmospheric
moisture will continue increasing tomorrow, with a better chance for
full sun will bring better chances for more meaningful precipitation
tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
light rainfall of up to 0.15” total in 15-30 minutes
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger showers will have the potential to
produce up to 0.25” total rainfall 15-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: On Sunday, the cut-off low will begin shifting east,
supporting better chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 60s with dewpoints in the upper 30s to low 40s. Storm motions
will be from the north around 20 mph helping limit point rainfall
amount. However, a stronger storm could produce a gust front with
potentially slower storm movements as storms develop off flanking
boundaries.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
Arapahoe
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
Boulder
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
Broomfield
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
Denver
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
Douglas
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
Douglas
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 AM TO 900 AM
0.1" (65%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (35%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1034 AM Sat May 11, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Today and Tonight.
Spring weather continues across the District as an upper-level cut
off low and its associated moisture plume moves over the four-corners
region today. Warmer temperatures are expected today with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms will improve by the afternoon
and evening. Storm motions will be from the southwest around 20 mph.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually decline
overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
light rainfall of up to 0.15” total in 15-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger showers blowing off the foothills have
the potential to produce up to 0.25” total rainfall 15-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: On Sunday, the cut-off low will begin shifting east,
supporting chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with
dewpoints in the upper 30s to low 40s. Storm motions will be from the
north around 20 mph.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
500 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Arapahoe
500 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Boulder
500 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Broomfield
500 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Denver
500 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
500 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
500 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.15" (50%) to 0.25" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.3" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.3" (25%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 958 AM Fri May 10, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening
Spring weather and below normal temperatures continues today.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, dewpoints
in the mid-30s. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will
gradually improve throughout the afternoon and evening. Storm motions
will be from the southwest between 10-20 mph. Skies will clear
overnight as temperatures fall into the low 40s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
light rainfall of up to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger showers blowing off the foothills have
the potential to produce up to 0.20” total rainfall 15-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday
afternoon and evening with winds from the east between 5-10 mph and
gusts up to 15 mph and afternoon highs warming into the upper 60s.
This pattern continues Sunday with chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms and high temperatures in the upper 60s to
low 70s. Overall, precipitation amounts this weekend are expected to
continue to remain light.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%)
NONE
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%)
NONE
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%)
NONE
Broomfield
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%)
NONE
Denver
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%)
NONE
Douglas
1200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%)
NONE
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
7 months, 2 weeks