June 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 301 PM Sun June 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 9pm this evening. - There has been enough daytime heating to initiate thunderstorms which will have the potential to produce brief moderate and heavy rainfall through the afternoon. N to S storm motions of around 15-20mph will keep the majority of the heavier rainfall brief. Training of thunderstorm cells or a large, slower moving thunderstorm will have the potential to produce extended periods of heavy rain that may lead to excessive runoff. - Best chances for thunderstorms will be through about 8 or 9pm then lighter rain showers will continue likely into the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large, slower moving thunderstorm will have the potential to produce up to 1.6" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (35%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (35%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (40%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 914 AM Sun June 27, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN/ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS - Unseasonably cool temperatures once again today with highs 10-15 degrees less than the normal of 87 for DIA. Highs today will reach the low to mid 70's on the plains with mid to upper 60's along the foothills. Slightly less moisture available at the surface this morning and in the mid to upper levels, will result in a lesser chance for heavy rainfall today, although there is still potential for brief heavy rainfall if stronger storms are able to develop this afternoon with a slight chance for rain showers to persist through the overnight and into Monday morning. - Another disturbance will push through the region around midday bringing a chance for rain/isolated thunderstorms across the District this afternoon, with the severity of storms once again hinging on whether or not there is enough daytime heating to get stronger storms to develop. Storm motions will also be fairly brisk between 10-20mph from the N/NW to S/SE, similar to yesterday. Best chance for storms in the District will be between 12-8pm with a slight lull in activity before a second surge moves in late this evening bringing a slight chance for widely scattered rain showers through the overnight and into Monday morning. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be completely ruled out through the overnight, although the threat for heavy rainfall will quickly diminish after 8pm this evening. - Overnight lows will be chilly for this time of year with lows dipping into the low to mid 50's on the plains with upper 40's to around 50 in the foothills. A few areas of fog possible in the early morning hours Monday along with scattered drizzle/light rain through daybreak. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce TR-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. a moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or training of strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.6" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Monday looks to be the last day of cool weather for the region with high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 70's across the plains. A decrease in mid to upper-level moisture will limit storm production heading into next week, although the chance remains for scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures begin to rise Tuesday into the upper 70's to around 80. Warmer Wednesday with highs in the low 80's. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 807 PM Sat June 26, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end for the day. - Widely scattered light rain showers remain possible until around midnight then generally dry conditions are expected into Sunday morning. Any additional rainfall expected to be minimal in the TR-0.2" range. - Cooler than normal temperatures will continue on Sunday with conditions similar to today. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop during the day Sunday with thunderstorms in the afternoon having the potential to produce heavy rainfall. The strength and coverage of thunderstorms will hinge upon daytime heating and just a few degrees will make a difference... STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM SUNDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 337 PM Sat June 26, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE DISTRICT - Message 1's continue valid for the entire District although the threat for thunderstorms is lower as precipitation thus far is favoring moderate to briefly heavy non-thunderstorm rain showers with short lived weak thunderstorms. - With temperatures in the 50's over much of the District precipitation is favoring a general rain with the stronger thunderstorm activity limited to the higher terrain well W of the District and further E onto the plains. The current rain and isolated weak thunderstorms showers are producing rainfall rates of 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes on the heavy end and is resulting in minor runoff. If a moderate or strong thunderstorm is able to develop it will be very capable of producing brief heavy rain that may lead to excessive runoff and flash flooding. - Shower and weak thunderstorm activity is expected to continue to come in waves into the evening with conditions drying out around sunset or shortly after. It may not take as much rain today to produce runoff as the ground is saturated in some areas and smaller creeks and streams may be running high into the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large slower moving thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.6" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1040 AM Sat June 26, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HEAVY RAINFALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING - A cold front is moving into the region form the north this morning with rain showers and weak thunderstorms forming along the front at this time. Currently dew points are in the low 50's in the District, combined with sufficient mid to upper-level moisture will bring a good chance for heavy rainfall, even out of weak to moderate rain showers. moderate to strong thunderstorms will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - Individual thunderstorms will be relatively fast moving from N/NW to S/SE at 10-20mph helping limit point rainfall amounts from a single storm. Outflow boundaries from thunderstorms this afternoon may be a focus for stronger storms with the potential to produce extended periods of heavy rainfall. Training of thunderstorm cells could also be a culprit for linger duration heavy rainfall especially areas along the foothills. Prime time for thunderstorms is from roughly 11am to 9pm with a slight chance for lingering showers after 9pm. - After 10pm, skies will gradually clear through the overnight with low dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's for the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large slower moving thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.8" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM 1100 AM TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 852 AM Sat June 26, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS - Another unseasonably cool day with high temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than normal in the upper 60's to low 70's this afternoon. Low to mid 50's dew points currently will remain in place throughout the day along with good mid to upper-level moisture will result in another chance for heavy rainfall. The severity of storms will be dependent on whether or not we have enough daytime heating before the cold front to break the cap today, however even weak rain showers will be very efficient rain producers resulting in a good chance for moderate to brief heavy rain. - As the cold front passes through the region early this afternoon it will bring a good chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms for the District. Storm motions have shifted today from NW to SE around 5-15mph, although outflow boundaries could produce some erratic, slower moving storms, especially along the foothills where storms have the best chance to anchor today, resulting in longer duration rainfall with an increased chance for minor flooding. Best chance for storms will be from 12-8pm with a few lingering rain showers possible after 8pm. - If there is enough daytime heating today and temperatures are able to increase into the mid to upper 70's, there will be a better chance for severe weather for the District including strong winds and hail 1" in diameter or greater, although the threat for this is unlikely at this time. Overnight skies will gradually clear with lows dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's across the plains. with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. a moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or training of strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.8" in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A lull in rain shower activity in Sunday morning with mostly sunny skies early before another disturbance moves into the region once again Sunday afternoon bringing a chance for afternoon/evening rain/isolated thunderstorms. This disturbance will linger a bit longer over the region resulting in a chance for overnight rain showers into early Monday morning. Increased moisture remains in place, therefore the threat for heavy rain will continue Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday will stay cooler with a slight chance for afternoon rain/isolated thunderstorms with the threat for heavy rain dropping significantly. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) MOD Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) MOD Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) MOD Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (40%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (40%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (40%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1149 PM Fri June 25, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT/ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at midnight as the threat for heavy rainfall from thunderstorms has ended for the day. Additional rain showers will continue likely overnight into Saturday morning. - Now that temperatures are firmly in the 50's the threat for thunderstorms has diminished with precipitation for the remainder of the overnight period expected to fall as general rain showers. Rainfall rates from light to moderate rain showers will typically range from 0.05-0.30" in 30-60 minutes. A persistent moderate rainfall may result in higher rainfall rates. - Many areas of the District has reported between 1-2" or more of rain today. Additional rain showers overnight will continue to produce runoff as the ground is becoming saturated and some creeks/streams will continue to run high into Saturday morning. Thunderstorms are likely to develop by midday Saturday and will once again be very capable of producing heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light to moderate rain showers will produce rainfall rates of 0.05-0.30" in 30-60 minutes. Heavy non-thunderstorm rain may result in rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Although unlikely, if a thunderstorm were to develop it would have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" in 15-45 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 AM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1147 AM Fri June 25, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING - Trough of low pressure moving through NE CO will result in a wet period setting up later today into the weekend. As the upper level disturbance approaches thunderstorms will be on the increase early this afternoon becoming scattered to numerous at times into the evening. With abundant moisture at the surface thunderstorms that develop today will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - Individual thunderstorms will be relatively fast moving from W to E at 20-25mph helping limit point rainfall amounts from a single storm. A cold front moving through this afternoon may be a focus for stronger storms with the potential to produce extended periods of heavy rainfall. Training of thunderstorm cells could also be a culprit for linger duration heavy rainfall. Prime time for thunderstorms is from roughly 1pm to 11pm. - After 10 or 11pm the convective nature of the precipitation is expected to transition to a more stratiform rainfall and the heavy rainfall threat is expected to wane with additional light to moderate rain showers continuing overnight. If precipitation does not transition to a general rain then Message 1's may need to be extended late this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large slower moving thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 2.5" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM 1230 PM TO 1100 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.2" (50%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 912 AM Fri June 25, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOL AGAIN TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS - Cooler temperatures once again today as highs reach the low to mid 70's for the District this afternoon. An abundance of surface moisture this morning with dew points in the low to mid 50's will remain in place as a disturbance moves into the region around midday. This disturbance will tap into some mid to upper-level moisture resulting in a high chance for heavy rainfall this afternoon, along with a moderate chance for severe storms. - Initial storm development will take place over the higher terrain and push out onto the plains between 12-2pm this afternoon. Multiple rounds of storms are likely this afternoon and through the evening with rain showers possible through the overnight and into early morning Saturday before a lull in shower activity during the day Saturday. Storm motions today will start off relatively brisk between 10-15mph. As storms strengthen through the afternoon, outflow boundaries will initiate additional storms which have the potential to remain in place for several minutes bringing an increase chance for longer duration heavy rainfall leading to isolated areas of minor flooding. Best chance for heavy rainfall will be from 2pm until midnight, with light to moderate rainfall after midnight at this time. - Storms may also become severe this afternoon and evening, favoring eastern portions of the District. Strong to severe storms will bring wind gust above 60mph and hail 1" or greater, along with frequent lightning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A strong to severe storm will have the potential to produce 1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or training of strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 2.5" in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This active pattern will remain in place through the weekend with off and on rainfall chances. Temperatures will play a big role as to whether Colorado receives just widespread off an on rain showers or a mix of rain and isolated thunderstorms. If temperatures remain in the upper 60's to low 70's with adequate cloud cover, the likely outcome will be off and on rain, however, it will only take a couple of hours of sunshine to heat the surface resulting in a better chance for thunderstorms, which will also increase the threat for heavy rainfall. Monday will begin to dry out slightly, with a chance for typical afternoon June showers/isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 840 PM Thu June 24, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9PM, ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY INTO THE EVENING - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. Isolated to widely scattered light rain showers remain possible until about midnight. - With temperatures currently in the 60's to around 70 any precipitation should fall as light rain showers this evening but a very isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out. Beyond midnight generally dry conditions are expected until early Friday morning then there could be a brief round of showers either side of daybreak. - Friday afternoon will feature scattered thunderstorms with the potential to produce moderate and heavy rainfall over the District. Thunderstorm chances continue over the upcoming weekend potentially stringing together a stretch of Message days... STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Isolated to widely scattered rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. A very isolated weak thunderstorms may produce up to 0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Boulder Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Denver Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Douglas Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Douglas Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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